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Subjects: Chinese views on Taiwan¡¦s presidential election; Taiwan¡¦s dependence on the Mainland market; delivery of Russian destroyers to PRC; ROC representative to Hong Kong.

 

 

MAC Vice Chairman Chong-Pin Lin

at the February 11, 2000 Press Conference

 

His Report:

 

1.         This year marks the first year of the new millenium. The year 2000 is the first year of ¡§the new age¡¨ astrologically speaking, the new century, and the new millenium. In Chinese tradition, the year of the dragon means transforming from the old to the new with many new trends emerging. That is how we see the world development. The United States will hold a presidential election, so will Russia change its leader. A presidential election in Taiwan is also approaching. We can expect many new developments. The government hopes that the cross-strait relations will advance toward peaceful, positive, and friendly interactions. But the most critical factor is Mainland China¡¦s attitude, which is largely determined by its domestic situation. This is my personal opinion. The government hopes that Beijing will be more rational, pragmatic, and understanding of Taiwan¡¦s public opinions and democratic system.

 

         As for the situation on the Mainland, the government hopes that Mainland China¡¦s economic downturn beginning 1992 will be arrested and a rebound will begin this year. Socially, we hope that Beijing can handle religious affairs rationally, stop cracking down on the media, and improve farmers¡¦ income. According to reports by the South China Morning Post on February 9, the PRC¡¦s tax revenue increased 14.9% in 1999, but its GDP rose only 7.1%. This means that its wealth grew by 7.1% but tax revenues jumped 14.9%. It is clear that farmers and many others are suffering.

 

         According to the South China Morning Post, farmer unrest, which occurred in six provinces in 1990, has spread to 16 provinces in 2000. You might recall the incident that happened in Renshou village, Sichuan province, in July 1994, when farmer unrest involved 11 provinces. So, this is a critical issue. We hope Beijing can properly handle its farmer issue. Only when Mainland China maintains social stability will those Chinese political leaders have greater confidence in advancing toward a positive direction. The ROC government hopes to see a more democratic China with rule of law. On the basis of Mainland China showing positive developments economically, socially, and politically, the ROC government will be able to expect a thawing of cross-strait relations.

 

         Recently, information from various sources on the Mainland indicates the same thing. Many Chinese say, ¡§You people in Taiwan do not realize how important and your democracy are.¡¨ They said that the (presidential) election held in such a democratic way in Taiwan greatly inspires Mainland Chinese. People on the Mainland would ask, ¡§If Taiwan can, why can¡¦t we?¡¨ ¡¨Why is it that so many people criticizing Lee Teng-hui are not arrested?¡¨ ¡§Why can Taiwan¡¦s leader pass on the power in his lifetime?¡¨ These questions demonstrate that Mainland Chinese have begun to reflect on their existing systems and show shaky confidence. Therefore, the most important task for us right now is to concentrate on the presidential election and improve the democratic process and systems. In my personal opinion, if the election is held smoothly, its influence will outdo that of the (PRC-purchased) Sovremennyy-class destroyers (from Russia). The influence of Taiwan¡¦s democracy, in the long run, will surpass that of the PRC¡¦s military modernization. Spreading to every corner in the world, democracy has become omnipresent and omnipotent. Time is on our side over the long run.

 

2.         Yesterday I read an opinion poll started on February 8 from the CNN website. One of the questions is: ¡§Do you think that the PRC-U.S. relations have improved despite the Taiwan issue and the global trading issue?¡¨ Fewer than 45% of the people reply with ¡§yes,¡¨ while those answering ¡§no¡¨ amount to 56%. Another question, which concerned us more, is: ¡§Do you think that the U.S. should strengthen its military ties with Taiwan though it might upset the PRC?¡¨ Those who answer ¡§yes¡¨ account for 63%, while ¡§no¡¨ 37%. The voters, until yesterday, have amounted to nearly 5,000. I will refrain from making further comment. You can check the website if you¡¦re interested. CNN has a disclaimer that the poll is not well sampled, because those who vote at the website are a selective group of people who visit the website according to their original preference. Therefore, the result does not represent public opinions of either of the world or of the United States.

 

3.         There is another piece of information for you, which I compiled. I noticed that some western media reported that Taiwan¡¦s trade dependence on the Mainland market reaches 25%, which surprised me, so I asked my colleagues to verify. If we take Taiwan¡¦s all exports to the Mainland and Hong Kong as the numerator, and those to the whole world as the denominator, the result, indeed, is close to 24%. This level of dependence began to show in 1995, with a moderate drop lately. However, if the numerator is Taiwan¡¦s indirect exports to the Mainland, and the denominator is Taiwan¡¦s entire exports, the result is 18%. Nevertheless, 18% is high enough, very close to the alarm line, i.e. the dependence of Taiwan¡¦s export on the Mainland market is very high. If we measure Mainland China¡¦s imports from Taiwan as the numerator and its whole imports as the denominator, the rate is as low as 4%. MAC will make this piece of information available at the MAC website. Please visit our website for more information.

 

Questions and Answers:

 

PRC Purchased Warships from Russia

Q.     It was learned that the PRC¡¦s purchased warships from Russia will be delivered soon. Does this matter have direct bearing on Taiwan¡¦s election? What is the impact on Taiwan¡¦s national security?

 

A.         The government has paid close attention to national security. Any development affecting Taiwan¡¦s security will be closely monitored. With respect to the Sovremennyy-class destroyers, the PRC¡¦s purchase should be studied against the entire background. Media have reported on the deal since last August, and Russia signed an agreement with the PRC on December 25 to sell two Sovremennyy-class destroyers. I don¡¦t think that Russia would be willing to go as far as to cooperate with the PRC¡¦s psychological warfare to flex its muscle before Taiwan¡¦s election. It is too far-fetched.

 

         However, the delivery time, coinciding with the campaign period of Taiwan¡¦s election, simply suits the PRC¡¦s expectation. As I said last time, the PRC is trying to exert a psychological, invisible, and manageable pressure (on Taiwan). Also, PRC officials can publicly deny there was any such attempt for this later.

 

         As shown in the information I offered to you last time, reports including the building of aircraft carriers, the construction of the troop-review platform, and the 18 countermeasures were later denied by Tai Kong Po and Wen Wei Po. So, this incident (timing of the delivery of the Sovremennyy-class destroyers) brought added value and became a handy tool to manipulate (for Beijing). But, I don¡¦t think that Beijing and Moscow deliberately orchestrated the entire purchase and the timing of delivery right from the beginning. The most important thing for Taiwan is to carry on the election smoothly. This power (of the democratic process) surpasses that of the Sovremennyy-class destroyers.

 

Impact of Taiwan¡¦s Presidential Election and Democratic Development

Q.         You just mentioned that you learned from various sources that Taiwan¡¦s presidential election as a democratic process has great influence on Mainland China. Can you indicate these sources?

 

A.         Some of the information came from the so-called princelings on the Mainland. Of course, they are intellectuals. They think that if on this piece of land, Chinese can follow such a democratic process (to elect the president), why can¡¦t people on the Mainland? They have gradually realized the bottleneck of the reforms on the Mainland, indicating that economic reforms would not go further without political reforms and the rule of law. Democracy is imperative. A book, newly published in Xiamen, reviews Mainland Chinese leaders¡¦ statements on democracy before 1949, indicating Mainland Chinese intellectuals still have high regard for democracy. At a time when Beijing has further cracked down on democracy and restricted the freedom of religion, expression, and publication and other activities by democrats, their aspiration (for democracy) has escalated. Therefore, they said, ¡§You people in Taiwan have underestimated your value. You do not realize how important you are. To Mainland Chinese, your success with democracy is inspiring.¡¨ I heard these words more than one time, many times. I think it is interesting. Taiwan has been busy with its domestic affairs, and we have a lot of flashy news. So, we tend to forget our value in the world, in the whole of Asia, and in cross-strait relations. We should not forget that.

 

   PRC¡¦s Possible Actions toward Taiwan¡¦s Presidential Election

Q.         The Control Yuan recently published a report on investigation of the Chung Hsing Bills Finance Corp. case (involving presidential candidate James Soong). This will probably affect the three-way race of the presidential election. If the popular support for the candidate in favor of Taiwan independence continues rising, do you expect the PRC to launch saber rattling against Taiwan before the election again?

 

A.         We won't be able to decide what the PRC will do. But so far, we have noticed that Beijing officials have tried to avoid mentioning the names of the presidential candidates or commenting on the campaigning process. What this means, in my personal opinion, is that the PRC has taken to heart the lesson from what it did in Taiwan¡¦s 1996 presidential election. Every time Beijing mentioned one candidate by name with positive comments, the candidate would suffer. Any candidate whom Beijing stood against might gain greater support. Beijing considers the situation very touchy. Therefore, in mid-1999, the Beijing officials asked all levels of officials to watch closely, listen carefully, but utter no words.

 

         The choice to be made on March 18 will be completely by the people in Taiwan. The government hopes that the PRC can realize that this is the operation of democracy, not subject to the will of one or two persons. We hope Mainland China can really understand that there is public opinion on Taiwan, which has a life of its own. If the PRC reacts to it in an arbitrary way, this will backfire not only in cross-strait relations but also to the PRC itself. The world has become a global village, in which one small piece could affect the entire picture and everyone is connected to one another, with greater interdependence in both economic and other sectors. Hence, the government hopes that the PRC can accept the outcome of Taiwan's presidential election on March 18 rationally, pragmatically, and with respect.

 

The Military Balance between the Two Sides and PRC¡¦s Military Development

Q.         The PRC has purchased the Sovremennyy-class destroyers (from Russia) to beef up its capability of the East Sea Fleet. What impact will it bring on the military balance between the two sides?

 

A.         Some 10 years ago, when I was still an unwelcome researcher on PRC military capability, I said then that the PRC has been modernizing its military force at full speed with a focus on its navy, as many realized earlier. What we see today is only an outcome.

 

         The PRC's efforts on military modernization started at the end of the 1980s. Before that time, the PRC has been one-hundred percent devoted to indigenous R&D. Why? Because in June 1959, when the former Soviet Union government ordered withdrawal all its scientists from Mainland China, the PRC suffered a serious blow and learned a traumatic lesson. Since then, the PRC has done its best to conduct indigenous R&D. At the end of the 1980s, the PRC made an important decision to move in two directions. On the one hand, it purchased from foreign countries; on the other hand, it developed some by itself. When the former Soviet Union disintegrated in 1990, the PRC found a third direction, by recruiting numerous former Soviet Union scientists to work in Mainland China. Reportedly, the number of Russian scientists working for the PRC has increased to some 1,500. Therefore, the PRC has modernized its military forces in three ways. What we see today is only one of the outcomes. It is not a single incidence.

 

         If the PRC¡¦s military modernization is aimed at ¡§resisting the Americans while seizing Taiwan,¡¨ the government will be greatly disappointed. Such an intent or move shows its over-dependence on violence and force to deal with the cross-strait issues, which cannot bring about a final solution. Meanwhile, the world is oriented toward more engagements, growing communication, and increasing interdependence. Such a disadvantageous practice will eventually backfire and alarm all the neighboring and concerned nations, even those not in favor of Taiwan. The regional tensions likely to be provoked will trigger grave concerns from not only Japan, Australia, and Southeast Asia but also the United States across the Pacific Ocean. There have been some discussions inside the United States. However, these are the domestic affairs of the United States, which MAC finds it improper to comment on. Hence, if the PRC insists on going down this line, it will be disadvantageous to the entire region, even to itself. This will hurt its economic reforms, social stability, and even internal politics.

The Visa Issue of the Appointed Taiwan Representative to Hong Kong Q.         Regarding the visa of Chang Liang-jen, appointed ROC representative to Hong Kong, why has the Hong Kong Special Administration Region (HKSAR) Government procrastinated issuing his permit? Is there any political consideration?

 

A.         What is in HKSAR¡¦s mind is not clear. The ROC government hopes that the HKSAR government can pay attention to the normalization of Taiwan-Hong Kong exchanges and handle this matter in a pragmatic and positive manner.

 

Q.         Hong Kong-based media yesterday quoted Hong Kong Democratic Party councilors as saying that they are worried about the operations of the Chung Hwa Travel Service since Taiwan has failed to assign its representative to Hong Kong. Did MAC notice that the absence of a representative there has affected the operation of the Chung Hwa Travel Service?

 

A.         The ROC government will do to the utmost to improve the Taiwan-Hong Kong relations. However, the next step lies on the HKSAR government¡¦s attitude. The government does not wish to see any retraction in the Taiwan-Hong Kong relations. Any retraction is not in the interest of the people either in Taiwan or Hong Kong but also affects the international image of HKSAR.

Q.         Will Mainland Chinese scholars organize a delegation to observe Taiwan¡¦s presidential election?

 

A.     I am not aware of the details. However, MAC welcomes such exchanges, so that Mainland Chinese scholars and representatives can observe Taiwan¡¦s democracy in person. According to my experiences, every Chinese visitor had a strong impression about Taiwan¡¦s election. Many began to think about changes or reforms.

 

Presidential Candidates¡¦ Stance on ¡§the Special State-to-State Relationship¡¨

Q.         The three leading presidential candidates have presented their Mainland policies, which, though with different rhetoric, seem to be still within the scope of the ¡§special state-to-state relationship.¡¨ If the elected one still refused to reject the ¡§special state-to-state relationship,¡¨ what will be the PRC¡¦s reaction? How to deal with that?

 

A.     I cannot put myself in its shoes to make decisions for Beijing. Every presidential candidate has the freedom to state his campaign policies. MAC respects every candidate¡¦s opinions on Mainland policies. We are glad to see that all presidential candidates have gradually departed from slandering and entered into policy debates. This is a positive development, which MAC hopes that Beijing can notice. If the three presidential candidates¡¦ statements on Mainland policies have something in common, MAC hopes that Beijing can also notice that as well.

 

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