Source: United Daily News
The political change has many people wondering what to expect in the months ahead, especially concerning cross-strait relations. Yesterday the United Daily News interviewed two professors to learn their perspective on such issues.
University of Maryland law Professor Chiu Hungdah stated that Chen's victory in the March 18 presidential election will add a new element of instability to the triangular relations between Taiwan, mainland China and the United States.
Chiu believes that in the short term the mainland will wait to hear to what Chen says, and will be especially interested to see what he does. In particular, Beijing will be concerned to see that no moves are taken toward Taiwan independence.
In addition, Chiu also noted that the urgency with which the mainland feels the Taiwan question must be solved could likewise increase at any time.
In this respect, Kau Ying-mao, a professor of political science at Brown University, argued that Chen should immediately endeavor to calm things down and communicate with Beijing and Washington in order to improve cross-strait relations.
Kau suggested that Chen should avoid discussing sensitive topics such as Taiwan's political status so as not to pinch Beijing's nerves. He also argued that Chen should establish a second channel of communication with the mainland in order to build a foundation of trust so that talks can resume between the two main representative bodies, Taiwan's Straits Exchange Foundation and the mainland's Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait.
Another key element in the development of cross-strait relations is the U.S. position. Professor Chiu, who is also president of the International Law Association, noted that although the U.S. will certainly welcome Chen as a democratically elected leader, they will still increase pressure on Taiwan to sit down to talks with the mainland, regardless of what Chen's position on this issue might be.
Further, Chiu also noted that out of its own interests, Washington will not support Taiwan independence, as such a move would drag the U.S. into a war with the PRC. Therefore, Chiu believes that the White House will have less trust in Chen given his previous pro-independence stance.
Kau pointed out there is likewise a lack of trust between the mainland authorities and the new Chen administration. He argued that it is therefore imperative that some form of cross-strait framework be set up to increase trust on both sides.
As such, Kau recommended that before Chen takes office he should meet with mainland officials via a secondary channel of communication, in order lay down a way for mutual trust to take hold, and official talks to resume.
As for the future of cross-strait relations under a DPP administration, Chiu is not that optimistic. Under pressure from the U.S. to sit down to talks, Chiu thinks that ideally Chen should try to usher in a new, post-Lee Teng-hui, era of cross-strait relations.
However, given the high degree of suspicion with which Beijing views Chen, Chiu suspects that they might add even more preconditions to any kind of negotiations. In such a scenario, Chiu warns, it will be very difficult for political talks to make any progress.
Chiu therefore sees a dangerous mix of American pressure and mainland suspicion leading to a deadlock in cross-strait negotiations. He fears that hardliners in Beijing will take advantage of this impasse to push their own agenda.
All of these factors, if they do in fact emerge, could serve to make the Taiwan question extremely complex and urgent to solve. Chiu therefore notes that Taiwan may become a major factor of instability in the Asia Pacific region.
Kau is likewise pessimistic about the future of cross-strait relations. He pointed out that prior to the election, when the mainland issued a white paper on Taiwan and PRC Premier Zhu Rongji made threatening remarks, Chen's reactions were perhaps too low-key.
On the other hand, Kau noted that Chen's mainland policy has changed significantly and is now quite similar to the KMT's. Further, the fact that Chen says he is willing to visit Beijing on a "journey of peace" is a sign that cross-strait relations will not necessarily deteriorate.
As for the question of the mainland using military force to settle cross-strait differences, Kau noted that Beijing's main concerns at the moment are economic development and political reform. He doubts therefore that the PRC would be willing to sacrifice these things for the sake of Taiwan.
He noted further that the international climate and conditions within the mainland itself also mitigate against the possibility that Beijing will resort to military force.
Kau notes that in the final analysis, Beijing will have to face the fact that Chen was democratically elected in accordance with the ROC Constitution. Kau hopes the PRC will take advantage of this occasion to turn the situation around and get cross-strait negotiations back on track.
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