Source: Liberty Times
During an interview with the Taipei-based Liberty Times newspaper, Lin said that Zhu's stance was at odds with Beijing's customary calm two-handed strategy. The current situation in Taiwan may have gone beyond what Beijing was expecting, throwing the strategy adopted by mainland China after the September 21 earthquake off kilter.
Rather than attribute Beijing's recent belligerence to factors such as Taiwan's presidential election, Lin said observers should look for changes within the Communist power center.
Lin listed four events that suggest the mainland's Taiwan policy may have gone awry.
First, the Washington Post reported recently that the People's Daily had indicated that on the following day, the Liberation Daily would carry an article on Beijing's Taiwan policy. However, the Liberation Daily article was blocked from publication and never appeared.
Second, PRC President Jiang Zemin's tone in recent statements on Taiwan was unusually weak, particularly in comparison with statements by National People's Congress member Li Peng and various generals.
Third, the statement on Taiwan delivered by Li Ruihuan, chairman of the PRC's Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, was inconsistent with statements by other members of the top leadership.
Fourth, PRC Premier Zhu Rongji's hard-line statement on Taiwan appeared too sudden.
According to Lin, there are many unstable factors worrying Beijing at the moment. One is its failure to stamp out the Falun Gong sect, another is the state of the economy. Demonstrations, bombings and corruption cases also threaten the regime.
The MAC official noted that Li Peng and the PLA have been increasingly strident since October 1998. Further, reports have circulated concerning displeasure among Central Military Commission Vice Chairman Zhang Wannian and his predecessor, Liu Huaqing. Although Jiang is comparatively better equipped than in 1995 to deal with pressure from the military, the possibility that the likes of Li Peng have allied with military forces to mount a challenge to the PRC president cannot be discounted in view that Beijing's policy toward Taipei recently has lost focus.
Lin relates that anxiety within the Beijing leadership ranks has been evident for the past 18 months, and that Taiwan's presidential election has perhaps acted as a catalyst and brought tensions to the surface. This demonstrates that Beijing's hard-line posture is really an expression of a lack of confidence from weaker members of the Beijing leadership. In other words, at a loss over their own political status and lacking confidence in their future, Beijing's political leaders have begun presenting an uneven stance regarding Taiwan.
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