DATE=5/18/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=TAIWAN - CHINA
NUMBER=5-46341
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: On Saturday (5/20), Taiwan will inaugurate a
new president, Chen Shui-bian, whose political party
has advocated Taiwan's independence. Yet, China wants
Mr. Chen to use his inaugural address to show he will
work toward Taiwan's reunification with the mainland
on Beijing's terms. Correspondent Stephanie Mann
reports American China analysts disagree on the level
of importance that should be attached to Mr. Chen's
speech.
TEXT: China has warned that Chen Shui-bian should use
his presidential inaugural address to accept Beijing's
one-China principle as the basis for resuming a
dialogue across the Taiwan Strait.
When the Communist Party came to power in Beijing in
1949, the Nationalists -- or Kuomintang -- government
fled to Taiwan. For decades, both sides claimed to be
the legitimate government of all China, and both sides
advocated the eventual reunification of Taiwan and
mainland China. But in the 1990's, Taiwan
relinquished its claim to rule all of China and
intensified its efforts to gain greater international
recognition as a separate entity.
Last year, Taiwan's outgoing president, Lee Teng-hui,
called for the two sides to treat each other as equal
sovereign states -- a declaration that prompted
Beijing to suspend the cross-Strait dialogue. Chen
Shui-bian's victory in the March election further
alarmed Beijing, because his Democratic Progressive
Party has said the people of Taiwan should be allowed
to choose between independence or reunification.
China has threatened to use force if Taiwan declares
outright independence or delays talks on
reunification.
Ronald Montaperto, a China specialist at the Institute
for National Strategic Studies in Washington, says
Beijing sees Mr. Chen's inaugural address as an
important indicator of his policy toward the mainland.
/// MONTAPERTO ACT ///
The inaugural address is really very, very
important because it will contain some kind of
formulation that will address the issue of where
the Taiwan side stands on one-China and how
they're willing to deal with it and how they're
willing to interpret it. And I think that
Beijing is really very hopeful that there will
be some room in this for them to respond to.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Montaperto says Mr. Chen may indicate an
acceptance of the idea of one China, but not as a pre-
condition to talks. He also says Mr. Chen will likely
not put any emphasis on Lee Teng-hui's two-states
theory.
The director of the Asian Studies Center at the
Heritage Foundation, Larry Wortzel, agrees Chen Shui-
bian will try not to inflame the situation.
/// WORTZEL ACT ONE ///
The speech will be significant. I think you
should look for a very balanced speech that does
nothing to inflame. He has said at a Heritage
Foundation video teleconference that he will not
raise the issue of independence, that he will
not raise the two-state theory in this thing,
that he will not attempt to raise the idea of a
referendum. So ... he's saying the right
things. We'll just have to see what he does,
but I think he will do the right things there.
/// END ACT ///
Former U-S Ambassador to Beijing and now a China
expert at the American Enterprise Institute, James
Lilley, says China is exaggerating the importance of
Mr. Chen's speech.
/// LILLEY ACT ONE ///
Obviously, Beijing has made it very important.
And the chorus of voices that Beijing influences
have said it's very important. You're getting
this from all over Southeast Asia and places
like this, that China means business this time,
and the military factor is real, and everything
hangs on his inauguration speech. ... Look, this
has been a long, long process between China and
Taiwan. It goes back, way back into the (19)30s
and (19)20s. You aren't going to change it with
an inauguration speech.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Lilley says Chen Shui-bian has a big problem
because he has to say nothing that offends Beijing
while, at the same time, reassuring his local
constituency, which is suspicious of Beijing's
motives. He says Beijing is not likely to be pleased
no matter what Mr. Chen says in his speech.
The analysts agree that in the coming year, Taiwan's
new president must focus on domestic issues -- the
economy, corruption, and especially legislative
elections expected in late 2001. They say how he
handles the cross-Strait issue and how China responds
to his initiatives will have a big impact on whether
Mr. Chen's Democratic Progressive Party is able to
gain a majority in the legislature. The analysts
expect Mr. Chen to try to make progress on the cross-
Strait issue in the coming months.
Ronald Montaperto and Larry Wortzel say there have
been subtle signals from middle level officials on the
mainland that China may be willing to go back to a
1992 agreement in which both sides accepted the idea
of one China, but did not agree on the interpretation
of that concept. Mr. Wortzel says there are glimmers
of hope both sides are trying to move toward that
position again, adding that could be a starting point
for a resumption of the cross-Strait dialogue.
Mr. Montaperto says many officials in Beijing now seem
to understand that reunification in the near term is
not possible, so their immediate goal instead is to
end what they see as a trajectory toward Taiwan
independence.
James Lilley agrees there are signs of flexibility by
some Beijing officials, but he also points to what he
calls a backdrop of military maneuvering that does not
help the situation.
/// LILLEY ACT TWO ///
You have a lot going on of military gong-
banging, posturing. But you've got to be
careful about this, because if you aren't, it
could spin out of control, cause an incident,
escalate into something. I don't think it will.
I think it's part of the whole Chinese process,
but it is a dangerous way to do business.
/// END ACT ///
Larry Wortzel says he thinks the Chinese army has been
more restrained and balanced this year than in the
past. In 1996, during Lee Teng-hui's election, the
People's Liberation Army (P-L-A) launched missiles
over the waters off Taiwan and held military exercises
in the area. This year, Mr. Wortzel says the army has
not held its usual spring military maneuvers near
Taiwan.
/// WORTZEL ACT TWO ///
I fully expect that the P-L-A will run some
exercises during the spring and before the
summer, but thus far they have avoided trying to
inflame the situation by running an exercise in
the middle of the Strait and changing the tone
of the political climate.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Wortzel says he hopes that when the People's
Liberation Army eventually holds its spring maneuvers,
it will not be in a location that affects the
political climate and will create a politically safe
space to allow cross-Strait talks to resume.
(Signed)
NEB/SMN/JP
18-May-2000 11:35 AM EDT (18-May-2000 1535 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
