UNITED24 - Make a charitable donation in support of Ukraine!

Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

USIS Washington File

09 May 2000

Text: Sen. Craig Thomas May 9 on Taiwan Security Enhancement Act

(Thomas opposes Act, says China is changing for the better) (3400)
Amidst the rising crescendo of debate over the vote later this month
over granting China permanent Normal Trade Relations (NTR) status,
Senator Craig Thomas (Republican of Wyoming), the chairman of the
Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific
Affairs, sees long-term progress in U.S.-China relations.
"I believe that U.S.-China relations have been improving over the past
20 years," Thomas said in a May 9 speech at the Woodrow Wilson Center
in Washington D.C. as part of a conference entitled "U.S.-China
Relations since the End of the Cold War."
"You can't unilaterally isolate a country like China," Thomas said.
"Cut off trade, and the European Union is more than happy to step in
and sell China airbuses in place of our Boeings."
The Wyoming Republican said the best way to influence China "is to
engage it."
The central issue for U.S.-China relations in the future will be
Taiwan, he said.
The East Asian and Pacific Affairs Subcommittee chairman warned
against the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, which passed the House of
Representatives overwhelmingly earlier this year.
To have a stable U.S.-China relationship over the coming decade, the
Wyoming lawmaker said, it will be necessary to build a stable
Taiwan-China relationship.
Following is the text of the Senator's remarks:
(begin text)
UNITED STATES SENATE
Washington DC 20510
SPEECH BY SENATOR CRAIG THOMAS, CHAIRMAN
SUBCOMMITTEE ON EAST ASIAN AND PACIFIC AFFAIRS
MAY 9, 2000
As the Chairman of the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs,
I have some twenty-five countries with which I work. Of those, without
a doubt, the most important and the most potentially troublesome is
the People's Republic of China; and that will continue to be the case
in the region long after I have left the Senate.
For those of you familiar with the lunar calendar, the year 2000 is a
dragon year. In fact, it is a double dragon year -- a rare
intersection of the Chinese zodiac cycle that happens only once every
sixty years. It is an interesting coincidence that this new century,
in which I believe China will play an increasingly visible and
important role on the world stage, begins under the sign of the dragon
-- the symbol of China.
With the Soviet Union and the Cold War having been relegated to the
past, we find ourselves left in a different world with the United
States as the sole superpower. But while the players may have changed,
the stage has not. We still live in a world where countries have
competing, and often conflicting, national and regional interests.
Just by virtue of its size and population alone, China is the 600
pound gorilla in Asia; the end of the Cold War has done nothing to
alter that fact; and the other major player in Asia currently is the
United States. And when you take into account our different cultures,
our different systems of government, and our different interests, it
would be naive not to recognize that at some point those interests are
going to somehow collide.
Having said that, however, I believe that US-China relations have been
improving over the past 20 years. True, we seem to lurch from
mini-crisis to mini-crisis -- the Lee Teng-hui visa, the missile tests
off Taipei, the bombing of the embassy in Belgrade, the State Council
White Paper on Taiwan -- so that if you plotted the relationship on a
graph it would look somewhat like the current stock market. But while
there are ups and downs, the overall movement is upwards.
I also believe, unlike some of my colleagues, that China is changing
and changing for the better. You only have to compare the China of
1978 -- the China of the Cultural Revolution and Mao suits and
Marxism-Leninism-Mao Zedong theory -- with the China of 2000 -- the
China of the economic revolution and Hugo Boss suits and Keynesian
theory -- to see that the changes are both substantial and
wide-ranging.
That is not to say that there isn't a great deal of change left for
China to undertake. The country continues to have an abysmal human
rights record, stifle political dissent, subjugate Tibetans, attempt
to cow Taiwan into submission, etc. There is no argument in Congress
as to whether China needs to change. I believe, though, that the
question is: how do we best effectuate that change? Do we do it by
attempting to isolate China as some Members would have us do, or do we
accomplish the task by engaging China, by drawing it further into the
rest of the world? In my opinion, the latter is the best course to
pursue.
Isolating China may be the "feel good" solution -- improve your human
rights record or we'll cut off trade, stop threatening Taiwan or we'll
cut off military-to-military exchanges, stop selling military hardware
to other countries or we'll cut off high-tech transfers -- but do we
want a policy that makes us feel good or a policy that works? You
can't unilaterally isolate a country like China. Cut off Trade, and
the European Union is more than happy to step in and sell China
airbuses in place of our Boeings. Cut off military-to-military
exchanges, and we lose the opportunity to impress upon the PLA the
vast superiority of our military while increasing mutual distrust
among our two militaries. Cut off high-tech transfers, and Beijing
simply gets it somewhere else. Add to that the fact that foreign
governments rarely react kindly to ultimatums from other governments
-- think, for example, how we in the U.S. react when another country
tells us how to manage our own affairs -- and I believe the
unworkability of "isolationist solution" becomes self-apparent.
Instead, I believe the best way to influence China is to engage it, to
draw it inextricably into the world community, to expose it to the
world of ideas. On my first trip to China as Chairman in 1995, the
difference that contacts with the west and interaction with western
businesses make was clearly evident to me as I traveled down the coast
from Beijing to Hong Kong. In Beijing, the vast majority of the
population was still riding bicycles, there were very few private
cars, and political questions -- especially Taiwan -- and the party
line were the sole topics of discussion at my meetings.
In Shanghai, bicycles were replaced by mopeds, there were many more
private cars, and while Taiwan and "one China" were still topics of
discussion, individuals with whom I met were much more interested in
talking about trade and what we could do to facilitate economic
exchange.
By the time I got to Guangzhou, there were even fewer bicycles or even
mopeds to be seen, private cars -- including BMW and Mercedes-Benz --
appeared to be the norm, and politics never reared its ugly head as a
topic of discussion -- instead, there was even more talk of trade and
some interest in talking about how to increase the personal freedoms
commensurate with their new economic status.
The lesson to me was as simple as it was clear. The establishment of
the rudiments of a market economy coupled with trade with the outside
world leads to increased personal wealth and an increase in personal
entrepreneurship. That in turn leads to an increased interest in, and
expectation of, a growth in certain basic personal freedoms. We've
seen the same developments in Taiwan, and in South Korea, where
authoritarian governments have been replaced by thriving democracies
over the past 20 years. The same will happen with China; once the
genie is let out of the bottle there is no putting it back in. The
march towards a more open and democratic society is inexorable, the
only question is how long it will take.
And that question of time is part of the problem. By our very nature,
with a history of little more than 200 years, Americans like instant
gratification. We want to see results and see them immediately, or we
don't think the proposed solution is working. In contrast, with a
history reaching back over 5,000 years, the Chinese are a little more
sanguine about the pace of things. 20 years to us may seem like a long
time, but to the Chinese it's just a blip on the radar screen. What we
might see as, not much change in a long period of time, the Chinese
would view as a lot of change in a short period of time. We would do
well to keep that in mind sometimes.
As for US-China relations in the future, I believe that central to our
relationship will be the issue of Taiwan. Since 1978, when the Carter
Administration recognized the People's Republic of China, we began a
triangular relationship which has required a delicate balancing act on
our part to keep stable. Unfortunately, much like the Chinese
dualistic concept of "yin" and "yang" -- where everything contains
both a positive and a negative, a masculine and a feminine, a light
and a dark, a good and an evil -- key to the success of this
relationship is also the source of its potential downfall: it is
constructed to be vague. And this nebulous character pervades the
entire trilateral relationship.
For example, at the core of the stability of the relationship is the
principle that there is but one China, and that Taiwan is a part of
China. All three sides have agreed, in principle, to adhere to this
"one China" policy, and by doing so have enabled the maintenance of
status quo for the past 22 years. Yet adherence to that policy sows
the seeds of its own demise because what is unstated is that each of
us has a slightly different definition of what that policy is.
To the PRC, it means there is one China, Taiwan is a part of China,
Taiwan is a renegade province of China, and Taiwan must be returned to
the fold under the leadership of the central communist -- government
in Beijing, forcibly if necessary. To Taiwan, it means there is one
China, Taiwan is a part of China, and Taiwan must be returned to the
fold under the leadership of a democratic -- preferably KMT (or given
the recent elections in Taiwan, DPP) -- government somehow installed
in Beijing. Finally, to the US, it means there is one China, Taiwan is
a part of China, but it is up to the two sides to determine --
peacefully and between themselves -- when, how, and if that
rapprochement is achieved.
Trouble ensues when those differences stop being tacit and become
vocalized. For instance, last year President Lee Teng-hui of Taiwan
stated that the relationship between the PRC and ROC was that of one
state to another. He used the Chinese term "guojia" which infers
sovereignty. That statement, then, ran counter to the PRC's definition
of "one China" because it elevated Taiwan from a constituent -- and
subservient -- region of China to a separate independent entity. You
will all recall the resultant chill in relations between Beijing and
Taipei.
In addition, there is a certain duality and vagueness built into the
Shanghai Communique which governs in part our diplomatic relationship
with China and our dealings vis-a-vis Taiwan. In it, we commit on the
one hand to decrease the number and quality of weapons we sell to
Taiwan. And, we say we will restrict our sales to defensive weapons.
On the other hand, we never actually say we're going to stop, nor do
we define what constitutes a defensive weapon. Like the other
ambiguities in this triad, this has allowed us to calm the concerns of
the PRC, while at the same time ensuring that we still support our
friends on Taiwan.
Finally, that same kind of ambivalence is built into the legislation
that forms the legal basis for our on-going relationship with Taiwan,
the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA). Nowhere in the Act does it legally
mandate that the United States come to the rescue of Taiwan if it is
attacked. Rather, it is stated in Section 2 of the Act, entitled
"Findings and Declaration of Policy," that peace and stability in the
region are in the national interest of the United States, that the US
expects that the future of Taiwan will be settled peacefully, and that
any attempt by the PRC to do otherwise is a threat to regional
stability. The inference is, therefore, that were the PRC to attempt
to settle the Taiwan question by force, that would threaten US vital
interests and we would react accordingly.
This vagueness was not an oversight on the part of the drafters of the
TRA; rather, it was purposefully built in to serve a dual purpose. On
the one hand, it was thought that reading the Findings Section one way
-- following the logic and inferring the conclusion -- would keep the
PRC guessing as to whether we would intervene in any conflict across
the Strait and thus acts as a strategic deterrent to any
Beijing-instigated aggression. On the other hand, reading it the other
way -- noting that our military support is not promised anywhere in
the Act -- would keep Taiwan from provoking the PRC while thinking it
could shield itself from any bad results by hiding behind the skirts
of our Seventh Fleet.
Yet despite its weaknesses -- some might say flaws -- there can be no
argument that the TRA has not done its job, done it well, and
maintained the status quo since 1979 when it was enacted. Despite
arguments from some quarters in Congress that the TRA doesn't work, I
think the most telling evidence to the contrary -- aside from the fact
that it has maintained peace between the PRC and ROC, fostered a deep
and close relationship between the US and Taiwan, and allowed
democracy to flourish on the island -- is the fact that it has never
been amended; not once in twenty-one years. I would challenge anyone
to discover a piece of legislation that has gone unchanged for so
long.
Yet despite its success, there are those who would, in effect, amend
the TRA, establish more official links with Taiwan -- links we have
abjured for 22 years -- and upset the delicate balance we have
achieved. The most recent example is the so-called "Taiwan Security
Enhancement Act" or "TSEA." I believe that enacting this legislation
would be a grave mistake.
Let me state here that I don't question the motives of those
supporters of this type of legislation. Clearly, they are doing what
they believe to be in the best interests of Taiwan and the US. I
support a free, democratic Taiwan determining its own future without
threats of, or actual, intimidation from Beijing as much as any Member
of Congress. But their intentions don't necessarily make them right.
Legislation like the TSEA is, in my opinion, both unnecessary and
would actually decrease stability in the region. First, there is
nothing in the law now that would prevent our government from doing
what the TSEA calls for. Both Admiral Prueher, the former Commander of
the US Pacific Fleet (CINCPAC) and present Ambassador to the PRC, and
Admiral Blair, the present CINCPAC, have testified to that fact before
committees of both Houses and I have not heard one TSEA supporter
argue to the contrary.
If we already have the capability, why restate it in another statute?
This is especially true because the Chinese are so attuned to subtle
signals and nuances. To them, enshrining the fact in a separate law --
something we might just view as being redundant -- carries with it an
ominous, threatening intent.
This shouldn't be a surprise to us; we view certain Chinese actions in
exactly the same way. Take for example the placement of certain
classes of Chinese missiles in Fujian Province, across the Strait from
Taiwan. To place them there is a redundancy -- they could strike
Taiwan no matter where they were located in China proper. But we view
the closer proximity of placing them in Fujian as an ominous and
threatening signal on their part of the PRC aimed at the heart of
Taiwan, and protest accordingly.
So while supporters of the TSEA argue that it's no big deal, just a
simple matter of establishing some phone links and relations between
flag officers in the two militaries, the missile analogy shouldn't be
lost on us. There is no doubt but that Beijing would view passage of
the TSEA as the US turning our backs on the "one China" policy,
abrogating our commitments vis-a-vis Taiwan as spelled out in the
three Joint Communiques, and supporting the notion of Taiwan
independence.
There is also no doubt that Beijing would respond in kind. Passage of
the TSEA would could a large, serious, and immediate disruption in
US-PRC affairs. More important in terms of Taiwan's security, Beijing
would react by cutting off what contacts it presently maintains with
Taipei, placing more men and materiel on the Strait, increasing the
number of military exercises in the region, and upgrading the nature
and number of weapons systems aimed at Taiwan. Will this somehow
enhance Taiwan's security? Will it enhance ours? Hardly. The last time
the PLA held a major military exercise off of Taiwan: Taiwan's stock
market fell 14%, and the US sent part of the Seventh Fleet steaming
through the Strait as a show of military might.
Opposing TSEA is not a question of kowtowing to Beijing. It is not a
question of not being supportive of Taiwan. And conversely, supporting
TSEA as some kind of trade-off for a yes vote on China PNTR is not a
"free" vote. Any benefit to Taiwan will be fleeting, and in the end
will be vastly outweighed by the backlash from the PRC.
The TRA may not be perfect; it may not be unambiguous; it May not be
everything we wish it could be in a perfect world. But this isn't a
perfect world, The TRA may not be pretty, but it works. And in
Wyoming, we say, "if it isn't broken, don't fix it."
I believe that maintaining a stable US-China relationship over the
next decade will be primarily dependant on maintaining a stable
PRC-Taiwan relationship. And key to that, I believe, is working to
maintain the status quo, as we do with the TRA, so that over time the
two sides can come to some mutually agreeable solution to their shared
problem.
The last time I was in Singapore, I had a the fortunate opportunity to
meet with that country's Senior Minister, Lee Kwan Yu. We spent quite
a long time talking about Taiwan. The Senior Minister said that he
believes that although some solution to the Taiwan question would
eventually be worked out, but that it will probably take a
generational change in leadership on both sides of the Taiwan Straits
before we see that come about. He agreed with me that in order to
allow for that change, it behooved both sides to maintain the status
quo; to avoid making any sudden or precipitous policy shifts; to work
hard to keep the lines of communication open, and in fact, to increase
those contacts where at all possible; and to gently nudge both sides
forward, and avoid letting them push each other backwards.
Towards those ends, we both believe that the United States can play a
constructive role in helping to maintain the status quo while
encouraging both sides to behave themselves and open the lines of
communication and discussion. The trick is to do so without getting
caught in the middle, which doesn't help either side resolve their
differences and only gets us in trouble -- often with both sides
simultaneously.
The next century in Asia will be one of profound changes socially,
politically, and economically; this is especially true in the case of
China. It is my hope that the United States will follow a course that
will allow us to influence that change for the better, and not one
that will push China in the wrong direction.
(end text)
(Distributed by the Office of International Information Programs, U.S.
Department of State. Web site: http://usinfo.state.gov)



NEWSLETTER
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list