DATE=3/31/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=POST-ELECTION TAIWAN
NUMBER=5-46065
BYLINE=ED WARNER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Beijing continues to insist Taiwan is part of
China but not so loudly as during the presidential
election campaign. This more subdued rhetoric, along
with a wait-and-see-attitude, was somewhat reassuring
to U-S National Security Adviser Sandy Berger, who has
just returned from talks in Beijing. VOA's Ed Warner
reports the views of some China watchers at two
prominent Washington research groups.
TEXT: After the pre-election build-up, tensions
between China and Taiwan are back to normal, says
Stephen Yates, senior policy analyst at the Heritage
Foundation. They are manageable, if not desirable.
Cooler heads are prevailing, agrees retired Admiral
Eugene Carroll, deputy director of the Center for
Defense Information:
// Carroll act ///
The pre-election bombast and ominous white paper
rhetoric emanating from Beijing quickly faded
away after Chen (Shui-bian) was elected (March
18). Just as quickly, Chen moderated provocative
campaign language into sensible terms toward
constructive discussions with Beijing.
// end act //
There is no crisis, said Admiral Carroll at
Washington's Cato Institute, unless it is
manufactured. China does not have the military force
to launch a successful attack on Taiwan. Such a
possibility is ten to fifteen years in the future, if
then. China lags far behind U-S defense efforts:
// Carroll act //
The point is that those who see the Chinese as a
growing military threat should appreciate that
the threat is growing very, very slowly and
losing ground. The fact remains that the P-R-C
navy is a third rate force and the air force is
not much better. We cannot fight their army on
the mainland. That is obvious, but who wants to?
// end act //
Admiral Carroll said a Chinese missile attack on
Taiwan would not knock out its military or industrial
capacity. He believes China could not enforce a naval
blockade.
All very well, replied Ross Munro, director of Asian
Studies at the Center for Security Studies. But China
is pursuing a strategy whereby the weak can defeat the
strong:
// Munro act //
You can certainly make a sweeping statement that
China militarily as a whole is still light years
behind us, but they are focusing on certain
areas where they believe they can defeat the
United State or neutralize us in the near
future.
// end act //
Rivalry with the United States is a key element of
Chinese policy, said Mr. Munro. It should not be
underestimated. In his opinion, China wants no
competition for control of the sea routes off its
shores:
// Munro act //
The Chinese are not driven by emotion, by
nationalistic urges as much as they are by
strategic ambitions. There is a recognition in
China at the highest levels that unless China
controls Taiwan, and that means also controlling
Taiwan's air and sea space, China cannot break
out of its limited position in East Asia.
// end act //
Let's change the subject, suggests Stephen Yates of
Heritage. Endless quibbling over questions of Taiwan's
sovereignty leads nowhere. Instead, Taiwan should
engage China economically by proposing direct trade
across the strait.
// Yates act //
It is the one area where Chen Shui-bian has the
wriggle room within Taiwan to move ahead. If
Beijing has any brains, it will take this kind
of an invitation because nothing will link
Taiwan more with the mainland in a significant
way than by deeply entrenching trade and other
forms of economic interaction on both sides.
// end act //
China says it will not relax trade restrictions across
the strait until the Taiwanese president elect agrees
to the one-China principle, which he is unwilling to
do.
If Beijing sticks to this position, says Mr. Yates, it
will arouse more sympathy for Taiwan, which - unlike
China - has just accomplished a peaceful democratic
transfer of power. (Signed)
NEB/EW/PT
31-Mar-2000 20:36 PM EDT (01-Apr-2000 0136 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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