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Admiral leans toward missile defense system for Taiwan

United Press International
March 15, 2000, Wednesday
   By PAMELA HESS

WASHINGTON, March 15 (UPI) -- As China continues to aim sophisticated missiles at Taiwan, the United States is leaning towards significantly increasing Taiwan's ability to defend itself against a missile attack, according to the chief of U.S. military operations in the Pacific region.

China is "throwing the military balance out of whack," Adm. Dennis Blair warned the House Armed Services Committee today at a public hearing. "We will have to think about theater missile defense for Taiwan in order to maintain the (military) balance."

China has about 200 M-9 and M-11 missiles pointing at Taiwan and that adds about 50 more a year, according to government and industry officials. These are the same kinds of missiles China fired across Taiwan in 1996 in a show of political force as Taiwan underwent a national election. Those new missiles have become more menacing: Several weeks ago when China released a policy "white paper" stating it would consider using force against Taiwan if the independence-minded island nation does not agree to a schedule for its peaceful reunification with mainland China.

Every year, Taiwan asks the United States for permission to buy ever more sophisticated military equipment to build up its defenses against a potential attack from China; this year it is hoping to get among other things the Patriot PAC-3 system, an Army theater missile defense system, and the Aegis cruiser, a Navy ship with tremendous anti-aircraft capabilities that could reach into China and shoot down their aircraft before they even left Chinese airspace.

Taiwan already owns the Patriot PAC-2 system, but it is not designed to be an anti-missile weapon, according to John Pike, a senior analyst with the Washington, D.C.-based Federation of American Scientists. PAC-2 is an anti-aircraft weapon with some anti-missile capabilities. PAC-3, however, was designed for and has proven in tests an ability to shoot down enemy weapons in flight.

Because of its reach, an Aegis system would constitute a national missile defense for Taiwan, whereas PAC-3 would offer only a single-point defensive capability, making it more likely to be approved by the White House, according to Pike.

Blair will make a recommendation on Taiwan's request this spring to the Pentagon, which will in turn recommend to the White House and Congress a package of weapons and radars to sell to Taiwan. China will take a very dim view of any such sales. "We are strongly opposed to this sale of PAC-3 as well as other sophisticated weaponry to Taiwan, which constitutes gross interference in China's internal affairs. This would, of course, have a very negative impact on China-U.S. relations," said Yu Shuning, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, D.C. "Taiwan is armed to the teeth already." "What kind of weapons we deploy on our territory is our domestic affair into which no foreign country should interfere," he told United Press International.

Stability between the two powers hinges on them having comparable military capabilities and the Chinese missile build-up threatens Taiwan's ability to defend itself against an attack, Blair explained. "Taiwan could defend itself for a considerable period of time," Blair said, "but the sheer physical size and resources of China could wear down the small island nation."

"This is a balance. If I see things going up on the Chinese side, then I will make my recommendation," he told UPI. The U.S. policy toward military involvement in a Chinese/Taiwan conflict remains one of "strategic ambiguity." Unlike a traditional alliance, the United States is not obligated to defend Taiwan if attacked. Nevertheless, Blair said he has made it very clear China runs the risk of facing the U.S. military if it makes good on its threat to seize Taiwan by force.

"Their long-term impatience to settle this the right way may get us in the soup," Blair warned. "I consider China a potential adversary," Blair continued, pointing out its military plan is geared toward beating the United States in a war.

"I try to tell them making conflict with the United Sates the single planning (scenario) is a mistake, but I'd be fooling you if I told you I think I made a heck of a lot of headway," Blair told the committee. "Although we drink toasts to one another, they are not very friendly." -- -- Message: WWN-UPI-1-20000315-18492300-bc-us-taiwan-missiledefe Content: SRV INTNEWS Content: POL SCI WAR Content: 11000000 13000000 16000000
Copyright 2000 U.P.I.