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         Mindful of the cross-strait political sensitivities, the ROC's presidential candidates are playing the "stability card" and assuring voters that they would opt for open dialogue with the Chinese mainland if elected.

        Voters are formulating decisions as they prepare to cast ballots March 18 for the ROC's second popularly elected president. To win over as many minds as possible, each of the three major presidential hopefuls--Vice President Lien Chan of the ruling Kuomintang, Chen Shui-bian of the main opposition Democratic Progressive Party and independent James Soong--is preaching stability in his mainland policy.

        The tension which flared across the Taiwan Strait around election time four years ago remains a vivid memory for voters and candidates alike. During the ROC's first direct presidential election in 1996, the mainland lobbed missiles into waters near Taiwan in an attempt to intimidate voters.

        Whether the Beijing authorities will do the same in the three weeks leading up to this election is something that has been nagging at political analysts both at home and abroad.

        It's not surprising that the candidates, regardless of their political affiliations, are taking the middle ground in pronouncements of policies on Taiwan-mainland relations. The vast majority of voters in Taiwan want to maintain the status quo in cross-strait affairs and prefer that the presidential hopefuls to steer clear of the unification vs. independence issue.

        Chen was the first candidate to outline his mainland policy, and it was very much a nonconfrontational one. He even declared his willingness to visit the other side of the strait if elected president. Chen, whose party has a pro-independence platform, presented a softened stance in a move to convince voters wary of angering Beijing that cross-strait relations will not worsen if a DPP candidate assumes the presidency. The former Taipei mayor unveiled his mainland policy as early as last November at a time when national policy had yet to spring into the forefront of campaign issues. Chen stressed Taiwan sovereignty while describing cross-strait affairs as "special relations between two countries." Chen will push for normalization of relations with the mainland. He added that since its establishment in 1949, the Chinese Communist regime has never had a political relationship with the ROC and thus has no say in determining Taiwan's future.

        The DPP candidate also proposed signing a peace agreement with the Beijing authorities. But before that can take place, he noted, the two sides of the strait need to resume discussions on investment guarantees, the establishment of confidence-building measures and a range of other subjects.

        In an attempt to further assuage voter concerns, Chen commented recently that the DPP is open to discussion with Beijing on the definition of "one China" from the standpoints of parity and peaceful resolution. "The DPP will not declare Taiwan independence unless the mainland tries to take Taiwan by force," the candidate said, making a promise to voters.

        The DPP pursues "real stability" based on prudent reforms and a peaceful transfer of power, he added. The party is not playing the "fear card" by pounding into voters' heads the possibility of a military attack by Beijing, a campaign tactic which Chen has accused the KMT of resorting to down the homestretch of the campaign.

        The two other major candidates are also extending olive branches to Beijing. The KMT's Lien has offered to make a goodwill visit to the mainland if elected president. Representing the current administration, Lien is toeing the line on ROC President Lee Teng-hui's mainland policy. He echoed Lee's position that Taiwan and the mainland have a "special state-to-state relationship." The concept of a special state-to-state relationship is pragmatic and "defines the reality across the strait," Lien said.

        Lee first presented the concept last July in an interview with the Germany broadcasting company Deutsche Welle. The president's statement was seen by Beijing as tantamount to advocating Taiwan independence.

        With the March election drawing near, Lien has needed to search for something less controversial. In recent comments, the vice president has suggested that the government's "no haste, be patient" policy on Taiwan investment in the mainland can be adjusted. He said a loosening of the investment policy could come about if cross-strait relations see a marked improvement and if the rights of Taiwan businessmen on the mainland are duly protected.

        Currently, the ROC government restricts certain imports from the other side of the strait and keeps a tight rein on Taiwan investment in the mainland's infrastructure. Lien, however, stressed that the "no haste, be patient" policy--another of the president's firm stands--is a transitional strategy.

        Lien said he will push for the establishment of a "mutual trust mechanism" in regard to cross-strait military affairs. He also wants to set up a "leadership hot line" between the two sides.

        Moreover, the candidate proposed the signing of a peace accord with the mainland to formally end cross-strait hostilities. Under the accord, a peace zone would be established in the strait to help promote the prosperity and stability of the entire Asia-Pacific region.

        Putting the emphasis on peace, Lien added that as long as Beijing does not insist on its "one country, two systems" framework as a precondition for dialogue, he will consider the possibility of political integration between Taiwan and the mainland.

        Most notably, he said Kinmen and Matsu--two ROC military outposts located close to the mainland coast--could be opened to direct transportation and trade with the mainland. The government currently bans direct transportation, trade and postal links across the strait.

        Independent candidate Soong, who was expelled from the KMT last November for launching his presidential bid without the party's endorsement, has always been seen as a pro-unification "mainlander." His advocacy of closer engagement with the mainland has prompted a concern among some voters that if elected he might sacrifice Taiwan's interests in dealings with the Chinese Communist regime.

        Pressed to dispel this perception by the public, Soong clarified his stance on Taiwan-mainland relations during a recent interview with the U.S.-based television network CNN. The former Taiwan provincial governor said the two sides of the strait enjoy mutually exclusive sovereignty with neither under the other's jurisdiction.

        Soong defined this as a "quasi-international relationship." He added that Taiwan and the mainland can sign a nonaggression pact in the presence of international witnesses, such as representatives from Japan and the United States.

        He also proposed that the nonaggression pact could be effective for 30 years. The candidate said if both sides are willing to maintain the status quo after that, they can consider signing--in the capacity of two sovereign nations--a 20-year agreement defining their relations on the European Union model.