DATE=2/24/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=TAIWAN ELECTIONS - CHINA
NUMBER=5-45504
BYLINE=GRACE CUTLER
DATELINE=HONG KONG
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Voter support in Taiwan for presidential
candidates is virtually unchanged in the aftermath of
a new threat from Beijing. As Grace Cutler reports
from Hong Kong, analysts say what is changing are
Taiwanese attitudes toward reunification with China.
TEXT: A recent poll in Taiwan shows Beijing's most
recent threat to the island had little effect on who
people want for president.
On Monday, Beijing issued a policy paper saying Taiwan
must begin negotiations toward unification or it would
face a military attack.
Of the nearly one thousand people polled, 26 percent
support Independent party candidate James Soong -- up
from 25 percent. Democratic Progressive Party hopeful
Chen Shui-bian dropped one percentage point to 25
percent and Kuomintang candidate and Vice President
Lien Chan held steady at 21 percent.
The poll also showed a majority of those questioned
were "not very worried" or "not at all worried" about
a military threat from China in the run-up to next
month's elections.
China considers Taiwan a renegade province and says it
must eventually reunite with the mainland. Four
years ago during Taiwan's first presidential
elections, Beijing threatened Taiwan with its military
might and test fired missiles in waters off the coast
of Taiwan.
Cross strait relations remain a top concern for Taiwan
voters. Each candidate has issued his own plan for
reconciliation with Beijing, but with varying degrees
of cooperation.
But Chao Chien Min head of Taiwan's Sun Yat Sen
Graduate Institute for Social Science and the
Humanities says many voters no longer fear a split
with China. He says people are rejecting the status-
quo ideas of the ruling K-M-T to keep Taiwan on a
separate but unequal footing with Beijing. Mr. Chao
says more people are beginning to support Chen Shui-
bian's idea of independence from the mainland.
//CHAO ACT//
It's true that the stability card that the ruling
party has been playing very successfully in the past
is losing its credit. If you look at the popularity
Chen Shui-bian enjoys that tells you something.
//END ACT//
Some analysts say as the younger generation of
Taiwanese come of age, the importance of reunification
with the motherland will fade further. This has
Beijing under increasing pressure to reach an
agreement with Taiwan.
Political analyst, Andrew Yang from the Chinese
Council of Advanced Policy Studies says the spilt in
voter attitude on unification is one factor creating
political instability in Taiwan. That instability, he
says, contributed to Beijing's latest round of saber
rattling.
//YANG ACT//
I think Beijing took advantage of this situation in
Taiwan and issued this strong statement, because they
can see their loophole here. They can see their
access for them to exercise their intimidation. They
will not give it up. They will push harder and harder
and corner Taiwan and make Taiwan compromise with
Beijing.
//END ACT//
Independent candidate James Soong is seen as the most
likely to work with Beijing toward a compromise. But
who ever is elected, analysts say, the issues between
Taiwan and China will not go away. (Signed)
NEB/GC/PLM
24-Feb-2000 06:33 AM EDT (24-Feb-2000 1133 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
.
|
NEWSLETTER
|
|
Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list
|
|
|
