DATE=2/22/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=U-S - TAIWAN ELECTION
NUMBER=5-45492
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: China's new White Paper threatening a possible
attack if Taiwan refuses to negotiate on unification,
has focused attention on Taiwan's upcoming
presidential election. The top issues for Taiwan's
voters are corruption and the economy, but there has
always been an underlying uncertainty about the
island's relations with the mainland and the
possibility of conflict. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann
reports on the U-S perspective on the Taiwanese
election, in light of China's new White Paper on
Taiwan.
TEXT: Many American analysts believe Beijing issued
its White Paper at this time to send a message to the
candidates as well as the voters in Taiwan's March 18th
presidential election.
China has previously said it reserves the right to use
force if Taiwan declares itself independent, or if
foreign forces intervene in Taiwan. The White Paper
introduces a new condition. The document says China
may also use force if the government on Taiwan refuses
to negotiate on the issue of reunification.
/// OPT /// In 1949, when the Communist Party took
power in Beijing, the Nationalist Kuomintang Party
fled to Taiwan, and each claimed to be the legitimate
ruler of all China. Taiwan has relinquished its claim
to govern the mainland, but China still considers
Taiwan a renegade province and wants the two reunited.
// END OPT //
During Taiwan's first direct presidential election in
1996, China launched missile tests over the waters off
Taiwan. American observers say the new White Paper is
not as overt a threat as that, but they say it does
appear intended to intimidate candidates and voters
from moving Taiwan toward independence. China
apparently wants to make sure Taiwan's next leader is
willing to cooperate with Beijing.
Asia security specialist Ronald Montaperto, at the
National Defense University in Washington, says
whoever is elected the next president in Taiwan will
have an opportunity to reshape relations with Beijing.
/// MONTAPERTO ACT ///
The whole issue of cross-strait relations is
going to be deeply affected, I think, or has the
potential to be deeply affected, by the next
administration in Taiwan. The present
administration has absolutely no credibility in
Beijing, and therefore that makes the conduct of
cross-strait relations difficult, to say the
least.
/// END ACT ///
There are three main candidates for the presidency --
Kuomintang Party candidate Vice President Lien Chan;
independent candidate James Soong, who split from the
Kuomintang, and opposition Democratic Progressive
Party candidate Chen Shui-bian.
Asia specialist Douglas Paal says Taiwan's next
president will determine if tension or calm prevails
across the Taiwan Strait.
/// PAAL ACT ///
It's quite clear that if the leader of the
Taiwan Democratic Progressive Party, Mr. Chen
Shui-bian, comes in, he presents different kinds
of challenges to managing tensions in the
western Pacific than if Vice President Mr. Lien
Chan is elected to be president or if James Chu-
yu Soong is elected to be president.
/// END ACT///
Mr. Paal, president of the Washington research group,
Asia Pacific Policy Center, says Lien Chan has taken a
cautious approach to the China issue in hopes of
convincing voters he would not be a risky choice. Mr.
Lien recently issued his own plan for reconciliation
with the mainland, but he also reaffirmed President
Lee Teng-hui's view that cross-strait talks should be
on a state-to-state basis, something vehemently
opposed by Beijing.
James Soong has been seen as the candidate most likely
to try to work with the mainland. But he criticized
the White Paper, saying China must understand there is
widespread resistance on Taiwan to rapid reunification
or independence.
The party of Chen Shui-bian calls for Taiwan's
independence. But Mr. Chen has recently toned down
that position, saying he would avoid precipitous
action and try to expand contacts with the mainland.
Mr. Paal says China's reaction to the election will
affect not only cross-strait relations but also
Beijing's ties with Washington.
/// PAAL ACT ///
The Chinese mainland seems to prefer James Soong
to the other candidates, but is willing to work
with Lien Chan and would feel quite
uncomfortable with Chen Shui-bian. If they are
uncomfortable with one of the people who wins,
that discomfort will be reflected in America's
own dealings with China and Taiwan.
/// END ACT ///
Ronald Montaperto says U-S interests are served if
cross-strait relations are conducted in a way that
reduces the possibility of conflict. But he says the
United States will not take sides in the election and
will work with whoever is chosen by the people of
Taiwan.
The United States was an ally of the Nationalist
Chinese government during World War Two, but changed
its diplomatic recognition to the People's Republic on
the mainland in 1979. Washington agreed with China's
demand to limit U-S military support for Taiwan, but
U-S law requires the United States to help Taiwan
maintain its defensive capabilities.
The Chinese White Paper includes a warning to foreign
countries not to sell weapons to Taiwan and
specifically calls on the United States not to stand
in the way of China's reunification.
/// OPT /// The U-S government has rejected China's
threat to use force. And a White House spokesman said
the United States views any threat to Taiwan with
grave concern. In 1996, when China fired missiles off
Taiwan, the United States showed its support for the
island by sending two aircraft carrier battle groups
to the area. /// END OPT ///
Analysts say the White Paper's warning to the United
States is a reiteration of China's disapproval of new
legislation pending in the U-S Congress. The House of
Representatives recently approved a bill, called the
Taiwan Security Enhancement Act, that would expand U-S
military contacts with and arms sales to Taiwan. The
measure has yet to be considered by the Senate, and
President Clinton is expected to veto it.
Ronald Montaperto expects that after Taiwan's
election, China may try to restart the cross-strait
dialogue. But he says U-S enactment of that
legislation or approval of more arms sales to Taiwan
would undermine any conciliatory approach China might
make toward the new Taiwan president.
/// MONTAPERTO ACT ///
/// OPT /// The one thing that could torpedo
the whole thing is the nature of the ultimate
fate of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act or,
assuming that fails which I think it will, that
still does leave the question of the normal arms
sales requests. ... /// END OPT /// The Chinese
have defined these as red lines that cannot be
crossed, and so if we agree to make such
transfers, to make such sales, I think that will
torpedo the whole thing. And U-S--China
relations will suffer, and I think we will see a
much more confrontational stance adopted by the
Chinese side.
/// END ACT ///
The Chinese White Paper is likely to be the subject of
heated discussions in the U-S Congress in coming
weeks, not only as lawmakers consider military support
for Taiwan, but also when they decide on China's trade
status.
Under a trade accord reached last November, China
agreed to lower tariffs on many U-S products and
services in exchange for the United States granting
China permanent Normal Trade Relations (formerly
called most-favored nation treatment). According to
U-S law, Congress decides whether to grant Normal
Trade Relations. Some members of Congress point to
China's threatening posture toward Taiwan as one
reason it should be denied the favorable trade
treatment. (Signed)
NEB/SMN/JP
22-Feb-2000 12:57 PM EDT (22-Feb-2000 1757 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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