Contrary to a memo from a U.S. think tank arguing that Senate approval of the Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TESA) would prevent mainland China's possible interference in Taiwan's presidential election next month, analysts here said that such a move could backfire and heighten cross-strait tensions.
The Heritage Foundation released a memo last week calling on the U.S. senate to push forward on the passage of the TSEA, according to sources.
Stephan Yates, a mainland China analyst at the Taiwan-friendly think tank, said a vote prior to the March 18 election "assures Taiwan's people that they can exercise their democratic franchise."
However, some political scientists in Taiwan have suggested - as have some U.S. senators - holding off voting on the TSEA vote due to the uncertainties it would raise in cross-strait ties and relations among Taiwan, the U.S. and mainland China.
"If the TSEA passed [before the election], it would give mainland China the opportunity to take provocative action and force the U.S. to face a lot of unpredictability in cross-strait relations," said Lo Chih-cheng, an analyst at Soochow University.
"The U.S. would want to wait until after the election to see what the new president would do and then assess the effect of the TSEA," he said.
The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly passed the bill that would strengthen U.S.-Taiwan military links with a bipartisan vote of 341-70 earlier this month.
The fate of the bill now lies in the hands of Senate majority leader Trent Lott, a Republican from Missouri. He has already said the TSEA would not be up for a vote until after Taiwan's election on March 18.
Philip Yang, a political scientist at National Taiwan University agreed, saying the bill has too many unseen ramifications.
"What if the bill fails to get support from half the Senate? Or what if the passage is timed to force Clinton to make a decision just before Taiwan's elections? It would certainly have an impact here," Yang said.
The Senate may time the passage to force Clinton to make decision within 10 days required by U.S. law, Yang said.
If the above scenarios take place, mainland China's reaction to the failed bill may unleash anti-mainland China feelings or ethnic tension in Taiwan, he said.
"It would be what [Los Angeles Times columnist] Jim Mann said - that a rise in cross-strait tensions could result in a win for the candidate least favored by the U.S. and mainland China," Loh said.
U.S. President Bill Clinton has said he would veto the TSEA on the grounds that it runs counter to Washington's military relations with Taiwan and would actually bring instability to the region.
Analysts said it is likely the Senate would move forward on the bill before May 20 - the scheduled date for Taiwan's presidential inauguration.
"Republican Senators would like to make the bill an issue in the U.S. presidential election. [Its] effect would probably be smaller after May 20," Yang said.
"But this would not affect the congressional vote on extending permanent Normal Trading Relations. [If TSEA is passed], the Senate would definitely pass NTR as a balancing act."
Permanent NTR, previously known as "most-favored-nation" (MFN) status, would extend trade privileges without requiring annual reviews by Congress and would also facilitate mainland China's entry into the WTO.
However, even if the TSEA makes it through the Senate and is approved by the White Hose, its effect is minimal, analysts said.
"The bill is a very contentious issue in the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee; the senators look at U.S. interests in a more macro perspective than congressmen," Loh said.
"There is not the two-thirds support in the Senate to overturn the expected presidential veto," he said, adding that the best Taiwan can hope for is to gather half of the Senate's support and aim for a symbolic victory.
"Even it does becomes a law, the executive branch is likely to backbench it," he said.
