Washington, Dec. 14 (CNA) A noted American China hand said on Tuesday that the United States should drop its "strategic ambiguity" stance on its reaction in the event of a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait.
David Shambaugh, director of the China Policy Program at the George Washington University, made the call at a seminar, sponsored by Georgetown University, on the US "one China" and strategic ambiguity policies toward Taiwan Strait issues.
Noting that the US government's "strategic ambiguity" concept is obsolete and needs adjustment, Shambaugh said mainland China believes that the United States would certainly intervene in a cross-strait military confrontation, and has incorporated this factor into its military build-up plans.
As for the "one China" policy, Shambaugh said Taiwan should pursue its own status under this framework. In his opinion, Shambaugh said, neither outright independence nor permanent separation from the Chinese mainland is feasible for Taiwan.
Shambaugh further warned that Taiwan's current practice of gradually moving toward separation might be dangerous and could cause instability in the area.
Nevertheless, Shambaugh was quick to add that Beijing should not ignore Taiwan's dignity and should give it great room in the international arenas.
Shambaugh also said he finds that the opportunities for Taiwan and mainland China to reach a compromise on their disputes are gradually fading away because mainland China is very likely to secure in five years military supremacy that it does not enjoy at the moment.
If Taiwan fails to reach an agreement with mainland China in the next few years, Shambaugh said it would be forced to negotiate with Beijing by then.
Speaking on the same occasion, Robert Kagan, a senior associate of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, echoed Shambaugh's view that the United States should abandon its "strategic ambiguity" stance.
Kagan said the United States should let Beijing understand a new reality that the United States will help defend Taiwan in the event of a Beijing attack on Taiwan.
However, Larry Wortzei, director of the Heritage Foundation's Asian Studies Program, said it is necessary that the United States maintains an appropriate degree of ambiguity on its possible reaction in the event of a cross-strait war.
Alfred Wilhelm, executive vice president of the Atlantic Council, also said maintaining strategic ambiguity on the US part will be helpful to Taiwan's security because future developments are difficult to predict. "Strategic ambiguity is needed to ensure flexibility in handling related issues," he noted.
Both Wilhelm and Wortzei agreed that cross-strait issues should be resovled by Taiwan and mainland China themselves and that the US obligation lies in stressing that the issues should be resovled by purely peaceful means and in providing an environment conducive to peaceful solution to thorny cross-strait disputes.
Meanwhile, Patrick Cronin, director of the research and policy studies division of the US Institute of Peace, said Washington, Beijing and Taipei are like "three persons traveling in a canoe sailing in a rough, dangerous maritime area. If any of them stands up, the canoe would capsize. This means that if any party forsakes the "one China" policy, Cronin said, the United States, Taiwan and mainland China could all be losers. (By Jay Chen and Sofia Wu)
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