Taipei, Oct. 19 (CNA) Beijing will not use force against Taiwan rashly because military action would have a huge negative impact on its plan to realize its strategic goal, said a strategy researcher from the mainland.
The researcher noted that in the wake of Taiwan's massive Sept. 21 earthquake, Beijing had toned down its vitriolic attack on President Lee Teng-hui following President Lee's redefinition of cross-strait ties as "state-to-state relations" in July.
He said Beijing displayed a "goodwill" gesture promptly after Taiwan's killer quake, noting that Beijing President Jiang Zemin expressed his sympathy toward quake-affected victims.
The strategist said Beijing had also cut short both its attack on Lee for his remarks and its new round of military maneuvers slated to take place after Oct. 1.
He told the Hong Kong-based Ming Pao Daily News that all these actions indicate that Beijing is seeking a chance to ease the tension in cross-strait relations triggered by Lee's remarks.
Beijing is doing so because it could pay an exorbitant price for military action, which could lead to a complete moratorium on its economic development and send military spending skyrocketing, he said.
He added that in case of war, the mainland would have to mobilize more than 1.5 million elite troops from among its armed forces, thousands of combat planes, hundreds of combat vessels and submarines, and employ hi-tech equipment.
The researcher said wartime military spending could surpass US$100 billion. The cost of replacing damaged equipment and post-war reconstruction would be huge. Existing and potential foreign investments in the mainland could also disrupted, which he said would deal a heavy blow to mainland China's plan to realize its strategic goal.
He noted that Beijing's military action would invite widespread condemnation of the mainland. Beijing would be deemed as belligerent and would face tough sanctions and blockades from other nations, seriously jeopardizing its political standing internationally.
Beijing's flexing of its military muscle and its determination to use force would cause panic reactions among Southeast Asian nations. They would seek support from western powers while strengthening their solidarity.
The strategist noted that the first step for mainland China to realize its strategic goal is be to become a regional power, but that aspiration might not be realized in the face of strong opposition from Southeast Asian nations.
He also stated that Japan would react strongly to mainland Chinese military action, saying that Japan could strengthen its strategic alliance with the United States, increase the number of US armed forces stationed in Japan, move faster toward becoming a military power, and pressure other countries to cut off sales of much-needed advanced military technology to the mainland.
According to his analysis, the strongest reaction would come from the Untied States, which could intervene by providing information and military assistance. US transport planes and vessels could be hit by their mainland counterparts, triggering direct conflict between Beijing and Washington.
But the strategist also said that though the cost would be huge, Beijing would not care about any negative impact or risks if faced with a Taiwan declaring independence. (By Lilian Wu)
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