Washington, Oct. 13 (CNA) The more Beijing tries to intimidate Taiwan, the more "likely the result would be to kill any desire among Taiwan's people for reunification," said American China specialist Stephen Yates on Wednesday.
Yates, a senior policy analyst at the Washington-based Heritage Foundation told the "Voice of America" radio station that Communist China is making a mistake if it tries to take even limited military action against Taiwan, because every military scenario that Beijing might be contemplating is likely to be counterproductive. He said he hopes Communist China would instead focus on sending more favorable signals to Taiwan.
VOA reported that as Taiwan's presidential elections approach in March of next year, the government in Beijing is watching closely and, some observers believe, preparing for a possible limited military action against Taiwan.
The radio station quoted Hong Kong journalist Willy Wo-Lap Lam as saying that Communist China's top leaders were making preparations for some kind of military action as a way to punish Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui for saying in July that mainland China and Taiwan should treat each other as equal states.
"It would be along the lines of the 1979 so-called punitive expedition against Vietnam, which means that if they were to do it this time against Taiwan, they would just go in for a few days, take over one or two outlying islands -- for example Quemoy or Matsu -- and then there would be no long-term occupation. They would just be there for a few days. As a result, the Taiwan economy would collapse, they would teach Lee Teng-hui a lesson, and then afterwards withdraw," said Lam.
The Chinese editor of the South China Morning Post and a former corespondent in Beijing noted that Communist Chinese army leaders were convinced that such a limited action would not draw in US forces in defense of Taiwan, but mainland China's top leaders could not agree on what action to take and at what time during their annual meeting at the seaside resort of Beidaihe in August.
So, Lam said, they decided to wait until after Taiwan's presidential elections in March, when they will have a better sense of what policy the next Taiwan leader will adopt. If the new president distances himself from Lee Teng-hui's so-called "two states" statement, the Communist Chinese army may drop its plan for a punitive strike against Taiwan.
Nevertheless, he pointed out, President Jiang Zemin has instructed military officials to continue their preparations for war and make sure that they are totally prepared and have total confidence in winning the war against Taiwan.
But Lam said the recent devastating earthquake in Taiwan gave authorities in Beijing another reason to delay military action. In his words, it would not look good for Communist China to stage provocative war games when the world is seeing such a natural disaster in Taiwan. (By Nelson Chung)
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