Washington, Sept. 22 (CNA) If Beijing were to propose a cross-strait Commonwealth or Confederation, with the issue of sovereignty set aside for the time being, Taipei might be willing to consider the idea in order to break through the current political impasse between the two sides, according to a renowned American China expert.
Robert A. Scalapino, professor of government emeritus at the University of California, Berkeley, wrote in his latest article titled "The People's Republic of China at Fifty" that to be sure, Taiwan is a domestic, not a foreign policy issue for PRC leaders. Yet even Beijing cannot avoid the fact that many states are involved, directly or indirectly, in Taiwan, and developments in mainland China-Taiwan relations will have a major impact on stability throughout the region.
At present, the China expert is convinced that economic and cultural relations across the Taiwan Strait are advancing more or less satisfactorily, with extensive Taiwan trade and investment on the mainland continuing and visitations expanding to include a wider spectrum of political figures as well as business and academic leaders. And millions of Taiwan residents have visited mainland China as tourists or to contact relatives.
Yet a political impasse continues, and despite arrangements for Wang Daohan, head of the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait, to go to Taiwan this fall for talks, no breakthrough is in sight. Indeed, Scalapino said, recent developments have darkened the clouds over PRC-Taiwan political relations, and raised new questions about whether the Wang visit will take place.
He pointed out that with the 2000 presidential election looming ahead, every politician in Taiwan is well aware of the fact that a great majority of the Taiwanese people have never been prepared to accept the formula of "one China, two systems" proffered by Beijing. In recent years, the ruling Kuomintang and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party have come closer together with respect to the central issue of Taiwan's current and future status.
Taiwan, both parties have proclaimed, is presently an independent, separate entity and entitled to equality in all relationships with the PRC. Until recently, Scalapino noted, the KMT retained the "one China" principle, maintaining that eventual reunification would depend upon whether the PRC became truly democratic, whereas the DPP has held that since de facto independence existed, it was not necessary to proclaim independence in de jure terms; and, if necessary, a plebiscite could be held to determine the people's will.
In early July 1999, however, he went on to say, President Lee Teng-hui seemed to shift the KMT into the same position as the DPP when in an interview with a German radio station he stated that from now on Taiwan would treat contacts with mainland China as "special state-to-state relations," and, under such relations, there was "no longer any need to declare Taiwanese independence." Seemingly, Lee publicly abandoned the "one China" formula. Predictably, Beijing authorities were furious and issued a statement that included the words, "do not underestimate the courage and force of the Chinese people to oppose separatism and Taiwan independence."
Scalapino wrote that "Compromise on this issue has never seemed less promising. If Beijing were to offer a proposal for Commonwealth or Confederation, with the issue of sovereignty set aside for the present, it might produce a willingness in Taiwan to consider the idea. But, given recent developments, the political costs of such a move are probably too great for Beijing's leaders to consider at this time. Thus, the critical issue is whether both parties can live with the status quo. Once again, much will depend upon political developments in both societies." (By Nelson Chung)
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