US MAGAZINE SAYS MAINLAND MAY ACT SOONER RATHER THAN LATER
Washington, Aug. 17 (CNA) An August attack on Taiwan by mainland China cannot be dismissed out of hand, and that means the United States must take steps now to deter it. But it is not too late for the Clinton administration to act with the necessary resolve, according to the latest issue of a conservative American magazine.
The Weekly Standard wrote in an editorial titled "The Present Danger" that many China experts inside and outside the Clinton administration who said mainland China would not escalate the conflict across the Taiwan Strait are now saying they will not do so until after Beijing celebrates the 50th anniversary of the Communist Party's victory on Oct. 1.
But the conservative political magazine said, "We're not so sure. If the Chinese are going to carry out some form of aggression against Taiwan, it makes a lot of sense to do it in the next few weeks. First of all, the United States is now unprepared to respond quickly. From what we gather, the Clinton administration has gone out of its way to avoid 'provoking' the Chinese by stepping up our military presence in the region."
Meanwhile, the editorial noted, everyone knows the US government goes on vacation in August. And Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait, which also took everyone by surprise, occurred in August. If mainland China acts quickly, they can present the United States with a "fait accompli," it said.
The weekly doubted that the United States, under the current administration, will respond militarily to evict mainland Chinese forces or in some other way. In fact, it said, the Clinton administration might just choose the opposite course.
Why should the mainland Chinese, or anyone else, assume that an attack on one of Taiwan's offshore islands, or even an attack on a couple of Taiwanese airfields, would necessarily derail either President Bill Clinton's scheduled meeting with Jiang Zemin in mid-September or the giant party Beijing is holding for over 300 American CEOs in Shanghai later in September? the magazine asked.
If an attack is carried out, China experts and administration officials will argue that what is most needed is intensive diplomacy to diffuse the crisis. "Our guess is that after an attack, President Clinton would declare it more essential than ever to meet with Jiang," and do not bet on the Clinton administration canceling talks on mainland China's entry into the World Trade Organization, wrote the magazine.
In the end, the editorial said, the mainland Chinese might wind up demonstrating to Taiwan, and to the rest of East Asia, that the United States cares more about doing business with Beijing than about defending some small Taiwanese islands from attack. And that would really give mainland Chinese leaders something to celebrate on Oct. 1.
Some leaders in Congress -- notably Senate majority leader Trent Lott, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Jesse Helms, Sen. Robert Torricelli and House International Relations Committee Chairman Benjamin Gilman -- have been strong in their support for Taiwan.
Friday morning, Sen. John McCain issued a statement criticizing the Clinton administration's "failed policy of pressuring Taiwan" and declaring, correctly, that "strategic ambiguity will not serve United States interests or values in this current crisis," according to the magazine.
The editorial continued that McCain called on the administration to be "very clear with Beijing that the United States will do what it must to help defend freedom and stability in Asia." Gary Bauer has also been a strong supporter of defending democratic Taiwan.
The Weekly Standard concluded, "Now it's time we hear from the other presidential candidates. If you aren't prepared to explain what we should do to defend Taiwan in the current crisis, why should anyone think you are prepared to be president?" (By Nelson Chung)
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