Ottawa, Aug. 10 (CNA) A Toronto-based military expert warned Tuesday that mainland China may have changed its "theory of nuclear deterrence" so significantly that a nuclear war between Taiwan and China can no longer be thought of as pure fiction.
Pinkov revealed his analysis in the Tuesday edition of the Kanwa News, saying that for mainland China, the function of nuclear deterrence is to safeguard territorial sovereignty, to contain the United States from becoming involved in the Taiwan issue through conventional warfare and to retaliate against a US nuclear attack.
Mainland China may have copied the new military theory that Russia proposed in 1993 and has, in fact, given up its promise of "taking no initiative in using nuclear weapons," Pinkov said.
He pointed out that Western military observers generally believe that mainland China's announcement of possessing the technology to make neutron bombs and small tactical nuclear weapons at an appropriate time implies a deterrent to Taiwan.
Shortly after the announcement, several mainland Chinese government-run military publications, including the Naval and Merchant Ship and National Defense Paper, confirmed the view both directly and indirectly, stressing that this announcement dealt a blow to Taiwan independence advocates. The Naval and Merchant Ship directly stated that the best way to destroy enemy planes on the ground and enemy ships at naval ports is to use tactical nuclear weapons.
"This new movement of China marks a possible conceptual breakthrough in the 'nuclear deterrence' theory of China and it has actually given up the policy of 'taking no initiative in using nuclear weapons under any circumstances,'" he wrote.
That is to say that the new theory of nuclear deterrence has gone beyond the traditional definition of "nuclear deterrence" to prevent nuclear war, he said. In fact, nuclear deterrence now plays the role of preventing conventional wars from breaking out, he said.
(S.C. Chang)
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