Taipei, July 27 (CNA) Taiwan is not yet ready to join the US-proposed Theater Missile Defense (TMD) system, nor is mainland China likely to launch a nuclear attack against the Republic of China, scholars said at a Taipei forum on Tuesday.
The forum, jointly sponsored by the 21st Century Foundation in Taipei and the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute, was attended by seval dozens of local and foreign specialists and scholars.
The subject of Tuesday morning's session was military balance and security across the Taiwan Strait, with attendants paying special attention to the possibility of Taiwan's participation in a regional TMD system and a nuclear attack on the island by mainland China.
Professor Jianxiang Bi of Canada's Carleton University pointed out that Taiwan is not yet properly equipped to join the TMD system, since it is unlikely that the United States will be willing to transfer important related software and technology to the island.
Moreover, he added, as the TMD is still in its development stage, it is doubtful that Taiwan would want to spend so much money to join in an as-yet uncertain defense system.
Professor June Teufel Dreyer, director of East Asian Programs at the University of Miami, pointed out that according to a 1999 US Department of Defense report on the security situation in the Taiwan Strait, the balance of military power will shift to the mainland by 2005.
Thus, she said, there is, from the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) point of view, no need at present to take a more active role on the unification issue. The least risky policy is for mainland China to continue with the current build-up of its military as its economy prospers, and to engage the United States on Taiwan and other issues.
If time is indeed on the side of mainland China, attempting to reduce the level of US support for Taiwan is preferable to initiating a confrontation, she said.
Moreover, she said, if the mainland tried to engage Taiwan in asymmetric information warfare -- by blinding Taiwan's satellites, introducing computer viruses, etc. -- it would be pitting itself against one of the world's most computer-sophisticated societies.
Dreyer concluded by pointing out that despite the fact that trends in cross-strait military balance seem to favor mainland China, it is still far from certain that present trends will continue indefinitely.
Professor Chien Chung of National Tsinghua University espoused a more pessimistic view in regard to the possibility of mainland Chinese attacks against the ROC, and he posed two worst-case scenarios.
One, which would bring the ROC to its heels without an invasion, is a long-range blockade of Taiwan's sea-lane of communication (SLOC), Chung said. Since Taiwan has no recoverable oil deposits, all crude oil has to be imported via the SLOC in the South China Sea from foreign oil fields.
A successful detention of Taiwan oil tankers at the SLOC will be a "heavy blow to Taiwanese's morale," he said, adding that the island would soon be plunged into "panic and a chaotic situation" and "social disorder would break out."
The second possibility is a "clean" nuclear electromagnetic pulse (EMP) attack. It could be generated by detonating a low-yield nuclear weapon, he pointed out, adding that it would not result in massive destruction to human beings and ground infrastructure.
All of the island's electronic devices such as telephone lines, televisions, computers, electric power grids, radar systems, missiles and aircraft on the ground would either be dead or in malfunction, he said.
The society and armed forces will become virtually "blind and deaf" within seconds after a nuclear EMP attack, he said, adding that the paralyzed country could be taken over by the rapid reaction force of the PLA.
The only alternative for the ROC against such attacks would be to acquire Aegis ACS as part of the TMD system to counter the PLA's high-tech threats, he concluded.
The panel's chairman, Tien Hung-mao, who is also president of the Institute for National Policy Research, pointed out in his conclusion that the question of whether Taiwan should join the TMD system has been the center of intense debates in the country recently.
Taiwan's two main political parties, the ruling Kuomintang and the opposition Democratic Progressive Party, both support Taiwan's participation, he said.
Thus, he continued, if mainland China continues to raise its military armaments, it is likely that Taiwan, if invited, would choose to join in the TMD system.
But Tien admitted that since the issue of Taiwan's possible participation in the regional defense system now involves the United States and Japan, it has become even more of a political issue.
As for a possible nuclear attack on Taiwan, many of the panelists, including Bi; Dreyer; Michael Pillsbury, a visiting fellow at the Atlantic Council; and retired Rear Adm. Michael McDevitt of the US Navy, do not think mainland China would risk such a move.
As Taiwan possesses remarkable resources, Beijing would rather consider other means of resolving the Taiwan issue than risk an all-out nuclear attack on the island, they said.
(By Wendy Chung)
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