Tang Fei says China likely to attack outlying islands
from CHINA NEWS, 26 August 1999National Defense Minister Tang Fei admitted in the latest issue of "Defense News" weekly that China is likely to invade Taiwan's outlying islands and launch missile attacks on Taiwan in the long run, to force Taiwan to return to the negotiating table.
A Washington analyst of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) observed that if China did decide to invade one of Taiwan's small outlying islands, it would negate the advantages of Taiwan's Air Force and the U.S. may hesitate to intervene. The analyst said the Spratly Islands would most likely be Beijing's main target rather than Kinmen or Matsu. China also claims sovereignty over these islands.
Tang told the magazine that China is unlikely to invade Taiwan in the foreseeable future because the PLA has insufficient amphibious combat capabilities. Moreover, Beijing is preparing to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China and is facing international pressure for its suppression of the Falun Gong sect. These factors make any move to invade Taiwan less feasible.
Tang said another major reason why China will hold back is its experience with missile exercises in 1996. The military exercises failed to intimidate Taiwan and instead is seen to have benefited presidential candidate Lee Teng-hui, whom Beijing does not favor. The U.S. also dispatched two aircraft carrier groups to support Taiwan.
But analysts added that if Beijing used force against Taiwan, even if it is just targeting isolated islands, it could raise strong protests from neighboring countries and the U.S. Congress.
In order to calm public anxiety over increasing cross-strait tension after Lee's "state-to-state" comments, legislators have been allowed for the first time to visit the top-secret Hungshan Command Center, a joint combat center.
The Ministry of National Defense (MND) also initiated a new communication system, which allows legislators give orders directly to troops. The center is located in the mountainous area near Tachih, Taipei, and has never been opened to the public before. To show that Taiwan can react to China's every move, the MND invited more than 30 legislators to visit the center, hoping to enhance public confidence in the country's defensive capabilities.Copyright 1999 China News
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