DATE=12/14/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=YEARENDER: TAIWAN
NUMBER=5-44982
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Taiwan President Lee Teng-hui is sticking by
his position that any dealings between Taipei and
Mainland China should be on a state-to-state basis.
That assertion -- first made in July and repeated as
recently as this month (mid-December) -- is one of the
most significant events affecting Taiwan during 1999.
Correspondent Stephanie Mann reports another event
that greatly marked Taiwan's year was the devastating
earthquake in September.
TEXT: An estimated 24-hundred people died when the
earthquake struck central Taiwan on September 21st.
The quake measured seven-point-six on the Richter
scale and caused about 14-billion-dollars in losses.
Taiwan specialist Bruce Dickson says the size of the
earthquake and the scope of its devastation had a
serious psychological impact on the people of Taiwan.
// DICKSON ACT ONE //
It also revealed the rather slipshod building
practices that had gone on. A lot of the
devastation and the deaths and casualties that
resulted were the consequence of improper
building practices and not going by building
code. This has had a continuing political
impact as the various political parties have
been criticized for allowing this type of
construction to go on.
// END ACT //
Professor Dickson, the Director of the Sigur Center
for Asian Studies at George Washington University,
says the earthquake's full impact on the economy has
yet to be seen.
// DICKSON ACT TWO //
It is expected that the overall growth of
Taiwan's economy will be reduced to some extent
because of the earthquake. A lot of the key
industries, such as the computer industry and
other high-tech areas were affected, and these
are some of the areas where Taiwan's key exports
are located. So, that will indeed have at least
a short-term impact on Taiwan's economic growth.
// END ACT //
Taiwan and China policy analyst Robert Downen says
newly released statistics show Taiwan's economic
growth declined in the third quarter of the year
because of the earthquake. But Mr. Downen says
fourth-quarter figures are expected to improve, and he
does not expect the earthquake to have a lasting
effect on Taiwan's economy.
// DOWNEN ACT ONE //
I have just recently seen statistics that,
despite the earthquake, they are forecasting
that the growth rate for this year, 1999, will
still end up at five-and-a-half-percent, which
is pretty remarkable, particularly when you
consider the East Asia economic slump of the
last couple of years.
// END ACT //
Mr. Downen, who was a U-S State Department officer in
the 1980's, says the earthquake was a major tragedy
for Taiwan, but he says Taiwan and its people are
remarkably resilient. He expects them to recover from
the earthquake just as they have managed to cope as
Taiwan continued to lose its diplomatic status during
the past 25-years.
Analysts say a desire to strengthen Taiwan's
international position is partly what prompted
President Lee Teng-hui to make his call for equal
state-to-state treatment with mainland China.
Professor Dickson says President Lee's comment
prompted a firestorm of negative reaction in
Washington, Beijing, and many other capitals, but the
reaction in Taiwan was mostly positive.
// DICKSON ACT THREE//
It responds to the public's desire to have a
more prominent role in international affairs, a
status that is more in keeping with its record
of economic and political progress. Over the
years, Taiwan has been either expelled or
excluded from virtually all of the key
international organizations. Its diplomatic
ties have dwindled to less than 30-countries,
mostly small Latin American and African
countries.
// END ACT //
And Mr. Dickson says many people feel that Taiwan
deserves more respect than it is given.
The most prominent event facing the people of Taiwan
as they enter the year 2000 is a presidential election
in March. It will be Taiwan's second direct popular
election for president.
Robert Downen says the election campaign shows how
Taiwan has opened its political system and made more
progress in democratizing than many other Asian
countries.
// DOWNEN ACT TWO //
The fact that there has been such an open multi-
party system in evidence this year, and even
challenges within parties, that it really
demonstrates that at long last Taiwan, the
Republic of China, has really got a very healthy
and vigorous political system. And it really
sets a good example, I think, for the rest of
East Asia.
// END ACT //
The so-called "China issue" - that is, the threat
posed by China, and whether and how to reunite with
the mainland - has always been part of Taiwan
politics. But analysts say now that the ruling party
says China should treat Taiwan on an equal state-to-
state basis, the positions of the various political
parties have moved closer together. So, they say
voters are not likely to cast their ballots solely on
the basis of a candidate's position on the question of
unification or independence.
// REST OPT //
Among a field of several candidates, there are three
major contenders. Vice President Lien Chan is running
as the candidate of the ruling Nationalist Party,
called Kuomintang. A veteran Kuomintang member, James
Soong, split from the party to launch an independent
bid for president. And the candidate of the main
opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party, is
Chen Shui-bian.
Bruce Dickson says the future of the Kuomintang is in
doubt if either of the leading opponents -- Mr. Soong
or Mr. Chen -- win the election. The Kuomintang has
ruled Taiwan since 1949, when the nationalists fled
the mainland as the communists came to power.
(SIGNED)
NEB/SMN/RAE
14-Dec-1999 11:12 AM EDT (14-Dec-1999 1612 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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