Chen's mainland policy rethink unwise
Nov. 2, 1999 Taipei Times
DPP Presidential candidate Chen Shui-bian is set to announce his "China Policy White Paper" later this week. The paper is being described as a major rethink of DPP's mainland policy. Chen is expected to advocate a proactive approach in fixing relations across the Taiwan Strait. Predicably, the new policies will have a major impact on the DPP, given the lack of consensus within the party, even though the policies are more at the trial balloon stage than fixed in stone.Above all, the policy revision may not necessarily be beneficial for Chen's presidential campaign.
There are three key points to the yet-to-be-made-public white paper. First, it is a departure from Lee Teng-hui's "no haste, be patient" policy, discouraging Taiwanese investment in mainland China, which the DPP has backed until now. Secondly, when it comes to air links, the white paper says Taiwanese airlines should fly the routes, but the profits should be shared by both of the Taiwan Strait.
Thirdly, it advocates the lifting of restrictions on mainland Chinese investment in Taiwan. Instead, investment management should be made transparent and investors be allowed to decide for themselves.
We believe the "no haste, be patient" policy has not caused substantial damage to Taiwan's business investments. In fact, in today's world of global capital flows, if large firms really want to invest in mainland China, they will find a way. While no other country has imposed restrictions on investing in mainland China, many of the companies that has invested there have not turned any significant profit either. The "no haste, be patient" policy is more of a symbolic moral exhortation than a legal restriction.
While the policy of having Taiwan airlines flying routes and splitting profits with mainland China is a rather creative and entertaining idea, it is obviously difficult to realize. Also, the policy of lifting restrictions on Chinese investment is more politically symbolic than of any practical use.
The purpose of the white paper can be no more than (1) to prove to voters that Chen is capable of governance; (2) to woo support from business circles; (3) to seek backing from the U.S.; and (4) to ease Beijing's fears over Taiwan independence.
However, this strategy may backfire.
The U.S. government wants a peaceful and stable relationship across the Taiwan Strait, but Hsu Hsin-liang's "boldly march west" policy has obviously gone beyond U.S. expectations in cross-strait relations. Too close a relationship across the Taiwan Strait is not in the interest of the U.S. As to whether or not Chen's new policy will boost mainland Chinese trust in him, the answer may be negative.
Due to a lack of communication, debate and persuasion, the DPP is nowhere near reaching a consensus on the new policies. Also, it may not be easy to get the public to accept them. They not only seem brusque and rash, but also, in the light of Chen's past pronouncements, smack of inconsistency - which may not be conducive to Chen's image as a leader.
The immediate effect of the new policies will be a tremendous boost for the New Party, which has always championed unification. Chen may even begin to appear like the New Party's bosom friend. The new policies will also undermine Lee Teng-hui's authority and may strengthen Beijing's belief that once Lee steps down, the cross-strait standoff will change to mainland China's advantage.
While Taiwan's mainland Chinese policy needs revising, the key to ending the current deadlock lies with Beijing. If mainland China is not willing to make any compromise, then Taiwan will have no room to yield either. If mainland China continues to engage in trying to isolate Taiwan internationally, then there is, in fact, very little a Taiwan leader can do -- because Taiwan is a society where a leader needs public support to come to power.
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