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Wednesday, October 27, 1999

No. 37

Beijing could gain military advantage within next decade

Published: Oct. 27, 1999
Source: The China Post


National Defense Minister Tang Fei warned yesterday that mainland China could gain military superiority over Taiwan within the next decade if the military budget is not increased.

Speaking at a breakfast meeting with legislators, Tang said that the mainland has been rapidly stepping up its defense spending while Taiwan has remained stagnant.

If the country doesn't keep pace with the expansion and upgrading of people's Liberation army (PLA), then the military balance of power will shift in favor of the mainland sometime between 2005 and 2010, he said.

The minister was also asked by Legislator Wang Tien-ging (KMT-Kaohsiung) to comment on a recent report by United States defense planners stating that Beijing could strike by air and sea and disrupt the island's command and control structures within 45 minutes.

While Yang denied this report, saying that "we are not that weak," he admitted that the possibility of such an attack could become real within three to five years if steps are not taken.

He added, however, that while the mainland has a large arsenal of missiles deployed against the country, it does not presently have the capability to launch an invasion.

U.S. defense experts have been studying the PLA for the last 20 years and seem to be divided into two camps: those who believe mainland China poses a real threat to international peace and stability and those who see it as a paper tiger, Tang said.

Taiwan cannot be too optimistic nor too pessimistic, but can only use its long experience and understanding of the mainland to make the most realistic estimates it can, he said.

Tang also said that a key factor in preparing for any possible cross-strait conflict is boosting the psychological readiness of the nation.

Given the island's high population density, any type of attack would certainly cause serious damage, and if the people of Taiwan are not ready to face this, then any military preparation will be an "empty shell," he said.

While the Ministry of National Defense has repeatedly assured that the ROC enjoys technological superiority over the mainland, repeated PLA maneuvers and warnings from Beijing's leader have often proved a source of anxiety.

Rhetorical threats have increased since President Lee Teng-hui's assertion in July that both sides of the Taiwan Strait should be accorded "special state" status in negotiations, a remark that has angered the communist leadership on the mainland.

Mainland Chinese President Jiang Zemin said over the weekend that Beijing will seek to reunify the two sides by 2050 at the latest, a statement which the Mainland Affairs Council here has dismissed as empty words and not a firm timetable.