DATE=10/13/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=TAIWAN - CHINA
NUMBER=5-44495
BYLINE=STEPHANIE MANN
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: As Taiwan's presidential elections approach in
March of next year, the government in Beijing is
watching closely and - some observers believe -
preparing for a possible limited military action
against the island. V-O-A's Stephanie Mann reports.
TEXT: China has never renounced the possible use of
force to reunify Taiwan with the mainland and has said
it would use force if Taiwan declares its
independence. In recent years, China has become
increasingly irritated as Taiwan politicians have
taken steps that look - to Beijing - like moves toward
independence.
The most recent and most noted incident came a few
months ago when Taiwan President Lee Deng-hui said
China and Taiwan should treat each other as equal
states. China reacted - as it did four years ago in
another incident - with military exercises off the
coast of Taiwan.
Hong Kong journalist Willy Wo-Lap Lam says China's top
leaders were making preparations for some kind of
military action as a way to punish Taiwan president
Lee Deng-hui.
/// LAM ACT ONE ///
It would be along the lines of the 1979 so-
called punitive expedition against Vietnam,
which means that if they were to do it this time
against Taiwan, they would just go in for a few
days, take over one or two outlying islands -
for example Quemoy or Matsu - and then there
would be no long-time occupation. They would
just be there for a few days. As a result, the
Taiwan economy would collapse, they would teach
Lee Deng-hui a lesson, and then afterwards
withdraw.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Lam, China editor of the South China Morning Post
and a former correspondent in Beijing, spoke at a
recent Washington gathering (hosted by the American
Enterprise Institute.) Mr. Lam says Chinese army
leaders were convinced such a limited action would not
draw in U-S forces in defense of Taiwan. But he says
China's top leaders, at their annual seaside resort
meeting at Beidaihe in August, could not agree on what
kind of action to take or when.
So, Mr. Lam says they decided to wait until after
Taiwan's presidential election in March, when they
will have a better sense of what policy the next
Taiwan leader will adopt. If the new president
distances himself from Lee Deng-hui's so called two-
states theory, Mr. Lam says the Chinese army may drop
its plans for a punitive strike.
Nevertheless, he says President Jiang Zemin instructed
military officials to continue their preparations for
war.
/// LAM ACT TWO ///
Jiang Zemin said, during the Beidaihe meetings,
that in dealing with Taiwan, we must be sure,
before going to war, that whichever war we're
fighting, we must win the war. We should have
total confidence in winning the war. It should
be a war for which we are totally prepared, and
it should be a war with Taiwan in which the odds
are overwhelmingly on our side, so that we
should outnumber our enemies by huge margins.
/// END ACT ///
And Mr. Lam says war preparations are proceeding, with
redeployments of troops and equipment to China's
coastal provinces across the strait from Taiwan.
Willy Wo-Lap Lam says the recent devastating
earthquake in Taiwan gave authorities in Beijing
another reason to delay military action. In Mr. Lam's
words - it would not look good for China to stage
provocative war games when the world is seeing such a
natural disaster in Taiwan.
China specialist Stephen Yates says China is making a
mistake if it tries to take even limited military
action against Taiwan.
/// YATES ACT ///
It is true that Beijing would be viewed very
unfavorably if it moved on military issues in
the wake of the human tragedy of the earthquake
on Taiwan. It is also, I think, likely that it
would be very detrimental to them to try to take
an offshore island or something like that that
Mr. Lam had suggested perhaps they were thinking
of. The offshore islands that are of political
importance are so heavily fortified I think it
would just be a disastrous move by the mainland.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Yates, a policy analyst at the Washington-based
Heritage Foundation, says every military scenario that
Beijing might be contemplating is likely to be
counterproductive. He says he hopes China instead
focuses on sending more favorable signals to Taiwan.
The more Beijing tries to intimidate the independence
movement in Taiwan, Mr. Yates says, the likely result
would be to kill any desire among the Taiwan people
for reunification.
NEB/SMN/ENE/JP
13-Oct-1999 11:04 AM EDT (13-Oct-1999 1504 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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