DATE=8/13/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=CHINA-TAIWAN-THREATS
NUMBER=5-44058 (CQ)
BYLINE=GIL BUTLER
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Two leading American newspapers report in
Friday's editions that Chinese government officials
have warned the Clinton Administration that Beijing
may take some unspecified military action against
Taiwan. Tensions across the Taiwan strait have been
high since Taiwan President Lee Teng Hui made
statements Beijing took to be a step toward
independence. China considers Taiwan only a province.
Correspondent Gil Butler has more on the latest
developments.
TEXT: The New York Times and the Washington Post both
carried front-page stories on the reported threats.
The New York Times says Washington has replied that
any military action against Taiwan would bring U-S
retaliation. The Washington Post quotes American,
non-government China analysts as saying they were told
by Chinese emissaries, "we are going to do something."
In 1996, during another time of increased cross-strait
tension, China launched missiles that landed near
Taiwan.
Greg May, a China scholar with the Nixon Center,
believes the threats are real.
/// MAY ACT ///
There is a very good possibility there will be
some kind of military incident or crisis,
however, China realizes it can not deal with
an intervention by the United States. China's
military power is so far behind the United
States that they will try to do something like
they did in 1996, a missile test, harassing
fishing Taiwanese fishing boats, [or] flying
fighter planes into Taiwan airspace. They will
fall short of action that would trigger a U-S
intervention.
/// END ACT ///
Security experts say one Chinese military step might
be a blockade of some of the small Taiwan-controlled
islands that lie off the big island of Taiwan.
Mr. May says the Chinese lack the means for an all-out
invasion of Taiwan. He quotes military analysts as
saying that would amount to a "million-man swim".
Former U-S Ambassador James Lilly agrees that any
Chinese action will be carefully calibrated to avoid
American intervention.
Ambassador Lilly says though tensions are currently
high between China and Taiwan, they have been high in
the past, as well.
/// LILLY ACT ///
I think the decibel count is pretty high, but it
is no higher than it was before -- in 1958,
1976, 1995, and 1996. The decibel count tends
to be very high. But I see they have calibrated
it. They are using middle-level officials here
to deliver the message. They are using their
pro-China press in Hong Kong to deliver the
message and they are trying to deliver the
message directly through our friends and allies
and perhaps through direct contact with Madame
Albright in Singapore at ASEAN [the Association
of Southeast Asian Nations]. They are using
that technique. What makes it more serious is
obviously China has gotten much more powerful
weaponry.
/// END ACT ///
He cited the testing of long-range missiles, the
deployment of missiles in the Taiwan strait, the
Neutron bomb and the purchase of submarines and
advanced aircraft. He summed up by describing China
as a more formidable military power that has to be
taken more seriously. But he reiterated that there
have been more serious situation in the past across
the Taiwan Strait.
At the White House, a spokesman said the Chinese
government has not warned the United States about
possible military action against Taiwan through
official channels. But Clinton administration
officials say they are monitoring the dispute with
concern, and warn that there is a danger of accidental
clashes, since both China and Taiwan have increased
military flights over the Taiwan Strait. (Signed)
NEB/MGB/AG/WTW
13-Aug-1999 15:00 PM EDT (13-Aug-1999 1900 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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