Tuesday, August 10, 1999
U.S. caught in the middle of Taiwan-China tensions
By Matt Twomey
Stripes Tokyo Bureau
TOKYO - As tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, members of the 7th Fleet watch, knowing they could be sent in as they were three years ago to prevent a violent takeover of Taiwan by China.
The rhetoric began heating up anew last month when Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui said China must deal with Taiwan on a "state-to-state basis." Lee later claimed this was no move toward independence, but simply intended to establish equal political footing in negotiations for reunification.
But it doesn't seem China's leaders are buying that. They may be preparing for war, a step they've consistently said they are ready to take to reclaim the island 120 miles off China's southeastern coast.
China sees Taiwan strictly as unfinished business, a prodigal son whose destiny is to return to China's fold, just as Hong Kong was dutifully given back by Britain in 1997.
As much as the United States claims to be committed to the "one China" policy - that is, that Taiwan is indeed China's province - it was the 7th Fleet, sent by President Truman, that prevented the victorious communists from rolling over the island that the nationalists retreated to a half-century ago.
While the island went through decades of the brutal authoritarian rule that is still China's mainstay, Taiwan, during the last 15 years, has managed to evolve an enviable standard of living, universal education, a healthy market economy, and, more recently, a democracy.
Ironically, it was also to China's great benefit that the communists didn't take Taiwan in 1950, as Taiwanese are now among the top investors in the mainland. There is little reason to believe Taiwan wouldn't be a struggling backwater like most of China if it had not been separate for this half-century.
China's leaders, of course, see control of the island as their sovereign right. They're also suspicious of U.S. motives and intentions.
As noted in the book "China Wakes," by New York Times writers Nicholas Kristof and Sheryl WuDunn, a classified Chinese document in 1993 warned that "because of (the United States') political, economic, and security interests, it is in America's best interest to preserve the situation in the Taiwan Strait as it is, with Taiwan remaining indefinitely as an independent entity."
This doubt over the United States' true commitment to "one China" is evident again in the independent Sing Tao Daily's report Thursday that Chinese leaders believe Lee got the go-ahead from Washington to demand Taiwan be treated as a separate state. That same report said China is stepping up war preparations.
Indeed, the United States has played both sides of the fence throughout Taiwan's short history. First it protected Taiwan from the communists. Then, in 1979 the United States switched its diplomatic recognition to Beijing in a move to improve relations with the mainland.
When tensions were heating up in early 1996 as China conducted military exercises off Taiwan - widely thought to be an intimidation tactic intended to influence Taiwan's first direct presidential election - then-Defense Secretary William Perry cited the Taiwan Relations Act as the guiding document.
It states: "Any effort to determine Taiwan's future by other than peaceful means should be considered a threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area and of grave concern to the United States."
President Clinton ended up ordering two aircraft carriers, the USS Independence out of Yokosuka Naval Base, Japan, and the USS Nimitz, redeployed from the Persian Gulf, into waters near Taiwan to dissuade China from invading. "If there are accidents, (China) will be held accountable. . . . If they attack Taiwan, there will be grave consequences," then-National Security Adviser Anthony Lake said of China's military maneuvers at the time.
However, the Clinton administration would not state outright that the United States would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion. The House International Relations Committee, on the other hand, approved a nonbinding resolution saying just that.
That split provides an insight into how Taiwan will likely be debated in the United States if the independence issue comes to a head.
The administration is loath to make an enemy of China, whose market - with one-fifth of the world's population - holds untold potential, and who would make a formidable foe.
There is already talk of chilly relations between China and the United States - borne of U.S. prodding on intellectual and human rights, charges of nuclear espionage and the accidental bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade - turning into a Cold War II.
On the other hand, the non-ruling opposition finds it easy to be supportive of Taiwan and its vibrant democracy - a shining example of what's possible in Asia - and to portray China as a bully and untrustworthy friend.
U.S. ambivalence on Taiwanese independence is matched by Taiwan's own apparent uncertainty.
Lee's call for "state-to-state" relations with China and his subsequent clarification that he still hopes for reunification echo his speeches before he won that election three years ago.
He drew votes from both the pro-reunification and pro-independence camps - surveys and local elections show the latter gaining momentum - by singing the praises of Taiwan's independently achieved democratic and economic accomplishments but also reaffirming his commitment to reunite with the mainland.
In late 1997, Lee created a stir uncannily similar to the one of these past few weeks. The Washington Post quoted him as saying, "Taiwan is already independent. There is no need to say so." Like now, there was quick backtracking: Taipei officials said days later, "(Lee) never indicated any support for Taiwanese independence."
What is Lee really after? It may very well be that he looks forward to a reunification with China.
After the crisis cooled in 1996, Lee called Taiwanese independence "unnecessary and impossible."
But if he thinks so - the Beijing regime grumbled about his sincerity - he clearly believes Taiwan needs to negotiate from a position of power.
Lee is also set on a particular concession, and it's a big one: During China's war games three years ago, he said the island will be reunified only with a democratic China.
The Beijing regime, which on Oct. 1 will celebrate 50 years of Communist Party rule, has given no indication it is ready for democracy. That would mean risking losing the power they've held on to so jealously.
In the meantime, the Pentagon - and sailors of the 7th Fleet - watch.
With the missile-tracking units of the USNS Invincible deployed to Sasebo Naval Base and the USNS Observation Island deployed to Yokosuka, they are equipped to view more than just CNN reports.
But they must be hoping they'll never have to choose between China and Taiwan. Unfortunately, that scenario appears to be growing ever less likely.
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