DATE=07/14/99
TYPE=U-S OPINION ROUNDUP
NUMBER=6-11381
TITLE=TAIWAN'S LEADER JOLTS WORLD OVER "ONE CHINA" POLICY
BYLINE=ANDREW N. GUTHRIE
TELEPHONE=619-3335
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
EDITOR=ASSIGNMENTS
CONTENT=
INTRO: THE PRESIDENT OF TAIWAN, LEE TENG-HUI, HAS CAUSED A
FOREIGN POLICY FUROR WITH A COMMENT MADE TO GERMAN RADIO IN WHICH
HE DISAVOWED THE LONG-STANDING "ONE CHINA" POLICY GOVERNING
RELATIONS BETWEEN TAIWAN, MAINLAND CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES.
THE UNEXPECTED COMMENT, RESOUNDING IN BOTH WASHINGTON AND
BEIJING, IS DRAWING A GOOD DEAL OF ATTENTION IN THE U-S PRESS AS
WELL, AND NOW HERE WITH A SAMPLING IS _________________ AND
TODAY'S U-S OPINION ROUNDUP.
TEXT: SPEAKING TO A GERMAN RADIO JOURNALIST, PRESIDENT LEE SAID
THAT SINCE CONSTITUTIONAL REFORMS CARRIED OUT ON TAIWAN IN 1991
"WE HAVE REDEFINED CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS AS NATION-TO-NATION OR
AT LEAST AS SPECIAL STATE-TO-STATE RELATIONS." THAT APPEARED TO
MANY ANALYSTS TO IMPLY THAT HE VIEWED TAIWAN, AT LEAST IN ITS
DEALINGS WITH COMMUNIST CHINA, AS AN EQUAL AND SOVEREIGN NATION.
THE CHINESE FOREIGN MINISTRY REACTED WITH FURY, AND FROM BEIJING
CAME WHAT SOME IN THE U-S PRESS ARE DESCRIBING AS THINLY VEILED
THREATS OF MILITARY ACTION SHOULD TAIWAN FORMALLY DECLARE
INDEPENDENCE. IN WASHINGTON, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESMAN JAMES
RUBIN SAID "OUR POSITION IS CLEAR AND UNCHANGING. WE DO NOT
SUPPORT TAIWAN INDEPENDENCE; WE DO NOT SUPPORT TAIWAN MEMBERSHIP
IN ORGANIZATIONS WHERE STATEHOOD IS REQUIRED, AND WE DON'T
SUPPORT A 'TWO-CHINA' OR A 'ONE-CHINA, ONE-TAIWAN' POLICY."
THE COMMENTS ALSO CAUSED A FUROR IN THE NATION'S EDITORIAL PAGES,
WITH "NEWSDAY" ON NEW YORK'S LONG ISLAND CALLING IT AN "ASIAN
BOMBSHELL" IN TUESDAY'S LEAD HEADLINE, ADDING:
VOICE: JUST AS ONE ASIAN CRISIS IS ABATING IN KASHMIR, ANOTHER
IS BREWING WITH POTENTIALLY DIRE CONSEQUENCES NOT ONLY
FOR EAST ASIA BUT FOR THE UNITED STATES. TAIWAN DROPPED
A POLITICAL BOMB THIS WEEK WHEN IT ANNOUNCED IT WAS
SCRAPPING THE 'ONE CHINA' POLICY THAT HAS UNDERGIRDED
ITS DELICATE RELATIONSHIP WITH BEIJING AND PREVENTED WAR
FOR FIVE DECADES. BY INSISTING IT IS A SEPARATE STATE
- - THOUGH STOPPING SHORT OF FORMALLY DECLARING
INDEPENDENCE - - TAIPEI HAS CREATED THE POTENTIAL FOR
AN ARMED CONFRONTATION ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT THAT
COULD SUCK IN THE UNITED STATES AS GUARANTOR OF TAIWAN'S
SECURITY. /// OPT /// WHETHER [PRESIDENT] LEE'S
ABANDONMENT OF 'ONE CHINA' GREW FROM A DESIRE TO WIN
VOTES IN THE UPCOMING ELECTION OR A WISH TO STRENGTHEN
TAIPEI'S HAND IN TALKS WITH BEIJING OVER THE FUTURE OF
THEIR RELATIONSHIP, IT COULD BACKFIRE BADLY FOR ALL
INVOLVED - - AND THAT INCLUDES WASHINGTON . /// END
OPT ///
TEXT: "THE BOSTON GLOBE" WAS EQUALLY SHOCKED, SAYING THE
COMMENTS ARE "TEMPTING FATE," AND SUGGESTING:
VOICE: [PRESIDENT] LEE HASN'T GONE SO FAR AS TO DECLARE
INDEPENDENCE, WHICH IS WHAT HIS FOES ARE URGING. CHINA
HAS REPEATEDLY SAID IT WOULD GO TO WAR IF TAIWAN DID SO.
BUT [MR.] LEE NOW SAYS HE WILL TREAT CHINA ON A
'STATE-TO-STATE' BASIS, WHICH MEANS 'THERE IS NO LONGER
ANY NEED TO DECLARE TAIWANESE INDEPENDENCE.' THIS IS
DANGEROUS SOPHISTRY, BECAUSE CHINA HAS LONG SAID IT
WOULD GO TO WAR IF TAIWAN DECLARED ITS INDEPENDENCE, AND
[MR.] LEE'S PLAY ON WORDS TAKES TAIWAN AND CHINA A STEP
CLOSER TO THE BREACH. /// OPT /// [FURTHERMORE]
...[MR.] LEE'S MOVE IS UNNECESSARY BECAUSE TAIWAN IS
DOING VERY WELL WITH THE PRESENT ARRANGEMENT, HAS
BILLIONS [OF (U-S) DOLLARS] INVESTED IN THE MAINLAND,
AND IS UNDER LITTLE DOMESTIC PRESSURE TO CHANGE THE
STATUS QUO. /// END OPT /// ... [PRESIDENT] LEE HAS
BEEN A MASTER OF MANIPULATING THE UNITED STATES AND
CONGRESS. IF HE WANTS TAIWAN TO CONTINUE TO FLOURISH
UNDER U-S PROTECTION, WASHINGTON MUST EXPLAIN TO HIM IN
NO UNCERTAIN TERMS THAT PROVOKING CHINA IS EXTREMELY
UNWISE.
TEXT: IN CALIFORNIA, "THE LOS ANGELES TIMES" IS ALSO FRETTING
OVER THE SUDDEN EXPLOSION OF RHETORIC, NOTING:
VOICE: BEIJING HAS ALWAYS INSISTED THAT TAIWAN IS SIMPLY A
REBELLIOUS PROVINCE WITH NO LEGITIMATE CLAIM TO
STATEHOOD. BUT 50 YEARS OF POLITICAL SEPARATION FROM
THE MAINLAND AND THE GROWING ASCENDANCY OF A TAIWAN-BORN
POPULATION WITHOUT MEMORIES OF THE CHINESE CIVIL WAR
HAVE MADE INDEPENDENCE AN ATTRACTIVE POSSIBILITY TO
MANY. ... THE ONE-CHINA POLICY IS A DIPLOMATIC FANCY
WHOSE MAIN AIM HAS BEEN TO KEEP THE CHINESE CIVIL WAR
FROM RE-ERUPTING WHILE WAITING FOR EVOLUTIONARY
POLITICAL CHANGES TO DECIDE WHETHER THE MAINLAND AND
TAIWAN WILL PEACEFULLY REUNIFY OR PEACEFULLY GO THEIR
SEPARATE WAYS. AS A FORCE FOR STABILITY, IT IS A POLICY
WORTH PRESERVING.
TEXT: IN WESTERN FLORIDA, "THE ST. PETERSBURG TIMES" CALLS THE
COMMENTS: "TAIWAN'S DANGEROUS DECLARATION."
VOICE: TAIWAN'S GOVERNMENT COULD BE MAKING A POTENTIALLY
SUICIDAL MISCALCULATION IF IT INSISTS ON ABANDONING THE
"ONE CHINA" POLICY THAT HAS DEFINED THE TINY ISLAND'S
RELATIONSHIP WITH THE MAINLAND FOR DECADES. ... U-S
OFFICIALS ARE AS MYSTIFIED AS THE REST OF THE WORLD BY
THE TIMING AND MOTIVATION OF ... PRESIDENT LEE['S]
VIRTUAL DECLARATION OF INDEPENDENCE. U-S CHINA
RELATIONS ALREADY ARE STRAINED BY A SPY SCANDAL, THE
ACCIDENTAL BOMBING OF THE CHINESE EMBASSY IN BELGRADE,
AND OTHER COMPLICATIONS. THE LAST THING WASHINGTON
NEEDS IS TO BE CAUGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF A NEW CRISIS OVER
TAIWAN.
TEXT: WHILE IN SAN FRANCISCO, WHERE A HUGE CHINESE ETHNIC
POPULATION LIVES, "THE CHRONICLE" NOTES:
VOICE: THE ABRUPT DECLARATION ... HAS BROUGHT OMINOUS RUMBLINGS
FROM BEIJING ... WHICH ISSUED A BARELY VEILED THREAT OF
MILITARY ACTION IF TAIWAN PURSUES CLAIMS OF
INDEPENDENCE. ... THERE IS REASON TO BELIEVE ... THAT
[PRESIDENT] LEE'S DRAMATIC JUNKING OF THE 'ONE CHINA'
POLICY WAS DRIVEN BY DOMESTIC POLITICS AND WILL BLOW
OVER (PASS). BUT THE VOLATILE RELATIONSHIP ACROSS THE
TAIWAN STRAITS COULD ALSO BLOW UP, UNLESS THE TALK ON
BOTH SIDES COOLS DOWN.
TEXT: IN THE CAPITAL'S MOST-READ PAPER, "THE WASHINGTON POST"
SEES A ROLE FOR PRESIDENT CLINTON IN THE DISPUTE.
VOICE: NO ONE, AND TAIWAN LEAST OF ALL, WILL GAIN FROM A CRISIS
THAT COULD HARM TAIWAN'S ECONOMY AND AT WORST LEAD TO
MILITARY CONFLICT. BUT INSTEAD OF LEADING CHINA'S
LEADERS TO BELIEVE ... THE UNITED STATES WILL HELP THEM
FORCE TAIWAN INTO THE FOLD, MR. CLINTON SHOULD HELP
THOSE LEADERS UNDERSTAND THAT THE UNITED STATES MUST
SUPPORT THE TAIWANESE PEOPLE'S RIGHT TO DETERMINE THEIR
OWN FUTURE.
TEXT: WITH THAT, WE CONCLUDE THIS SAMPLING OF COMMENT ON THE
RECENT STATEMENT FROM TAIWAN'S PRESIDENT REGARDING THE STATUS OF
HIS ISLAND IN FUTURE RELATIONS WITH MAINLAND CHINA.
NEB/ANG/RRM
14-Jul-99 2:19 PM EDT (1819 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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