DATE=7/13/99
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
NUMBER=2-251694
TITLE=TAIWAN / REGIONAL IMPACT (L-O)
BYLINE=CHRIS SIMKINS
DATELINE=HONG KONG
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: TAIWAN 'S SURPRISE ANNOUNCEMENT THAT IT IS SCRAPPING ITS
"ONE CHINA" POLICY IS SENDING SHOCK WAVES ACROSS THE ASIA-PACIFIC
REGION. V-O-A HONG KONG CORRESPONDENT CHRIS SIMKINS REPORTS ON
HOW THE MOVE MIGHT AFFECT DELICATE RELATIONS IN THE REGION.
TEXT: ANALYSTS SAY TAIPEI'S DECISION TO ABANDON ITS "ONE CHINA"
POLICY COULD HAVE FAR REACHING IMPLICATIONS. THIS IS A SUBTLE
BUT SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN WHICH TAIWAN VIEWS ITSELF AS A SEPARATE
STATE INSTEAD OF A SEPARATE POLITICAL ENTITY WITHIN CHINA.
TAIPEI OFFICIALS SAY, HOWEVER, THEY STILL INTEND TO ONE DAY
REUNIFY WITH CHINA -- BUT ONLY WHEN BEIJING ADOPTS DEMOCRATIC
WAYS.
THE MOVE HAS ANGERED BEIJING -- WHICH CONSIDERS TAIWAN A RENEGADE
PROVINCE. POLITICAL SCIENCE PROFESSOR JOSEPH CHENG, WITH HONG
KONG CHINESE UNIVERSITY, SAYS TAIWAN HAS LITTLE TO GAIN AND RISKS
ESCALATING TENSIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION.
/// CHENG ACT ///
IT IS EXPECTED THAT TENSIONS IN THE REGION WILL RISE
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAITS. AND CHINESE
LEADERS WILL PROBABLY CHOOSE TO EXERT PRESSURE ON
TAIWAN THROUGH MILITARY EXERCISES AND VARIOUS
RETALIATORY MEASURES.
/// END ACT ///
THE FALLOUT FROM TAIWAN PRESIDENT LEE TENG-HUI'S DECISION THIS
WEEK APPEARS TO HAVE ALREADY SHAKEN INVESTORS. TAIWAN'S STOCK
MARKET FELL MORE THAN THREE PERCENT TUESDAY. PROFESSOR CHENG
SAYS IF CHINA CHOOSES CERTAIN RETALIATORY MEASURES IT COULD ALSO
EFFECT THE REGION'S FRAGILE ECONOMIC RECOVERY IN PLACES SUCH AS
HONG KONG.
/// CHENG ACT ///
HONG KONG PEOPLE ARE CONCERNED WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
RISING TENSION ACROSS THE TAIWAN STRAIT -- THUS
AFFECTING ECONOMIC CHANGES BETWEEN TAIWAN AND THE
MAINLAND AND IN THIS CONNECTION, HONG KONG'S
INTERMEDIARY ROLE. SOME BUSINESS LEADERS EVEN FEAR THAT
TENSIONS IN TAIWAN MAY AFFECT INVESTORS PLANS IN HONG
KONG TOO.
/// END ACT ///
PRIVATE TAIWANESE BUSINESS INVESTMENTS IN MAINLAND CHINA HAVE
SURGED IN RECENT YEARS TOPPING MORE THAN 10 BILLION DOLLARS
BETWEEN 1997 AND 1998. HONG KONG HAS BENEFITED GREATLY AS A
TRANS-SHIPMENT POINT OF GOODS BETWEEN THE MAINLAND AND TAIWAN.
OTHER ASIAN NATIONS SEE HEIGHTENED TENSIONS BETWEEN CHINA AND
TAIWAN AS A THREAT TO THE FRAGILE ASIAN ECONOMIC RECOVERY.
ANALYSTS SAY LEADERS OF ASIAN NATIONS SUCH AS SINGAPORE MAY
QUIETLY TELL TAIPEI TO CALM ITS RHETORIC AND MAY TELL TAIWAN
OFFICIALS THEY HAVE NO INTENTION OF SUPPORTING OR ENHANCING THE
ISLAND'S DIPLOMATIC PROFILE OR A CHANGE TO A ONE CHINA, ONE
TAIWAN POLICY.
THE UNITED STATES HAS MADE CLEAR IT STILL SUPPORTS THE ONE-CHINA
POLICY.
TAIWAN PRESIDENT LEE SAYS THE SHIFT IS MEANT TO END TAIWAN'S
DIPLOMATIC ISOLATION IN THE WORLD. BEIJING ROUTINELY CUTS TIES
WITH ANY NATION THAT RECOGNIZES TAIWAN. (SIGNED)
NEB/CS/JO/PLM
13-Jul-99 6:06 AM EDT (1006 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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