DATE=6/24/98
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
NUMBER=5-40766
TITLE=U-S MILITARY
BYLINE=ROGER WILKISON
DATELINE=BEIJING
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: CHINA AND THE UNITED STATES -- THE TWO BIGGEST MILITARY
POWERS IN EAST ASIA -- ARE INCHING TOWARDS A CLOSER RELATIONSHIP
BETWEEN THEIR ARMED FORCES. BUT, AS CORRESPONDENT ROGER WILKISON
REPORTS FROM BEIJING, THE TWO APPEAR NOT TO BE ABLE TO DECIDE
WHETHER TO TREAT ONE ANOTHER AS PARTNERS, POTENTIAL ENEMIES, OR A
BIT OF BOTH.
TEXT: A DEBATE BETWEEN HAWKS AND DOVES AMONG DEFENSE STRATEGISTS
AND THEORETICIANS IS TAKING PLACE IN BOTH COUNTRIES.
IT OCCURS AT THE SAME TIME AS BEIJING AND WASHINGTON STEP UP
MILITARY EXCHANGES AND IDENTIFY COMMON INTERESTS, SUCH AS
AVOIDING TENSION ON THE KOREAN PENINSULA. TENSIONS OVER TAIWAN
IN 1995 AND 1996, WHEN THE UNITED STATES DEPLOYED AIRCRAFT
CARRIERS IN THE AREA AFTER CHINA LAUNCHED MISSILES NEAR THE
ISLAND, HAVE ALSO PROMPTED A SEARCH FOR BETTER UNDERSTANDING.
AN ANALYST WITH THE RESPECTED JANE'S DEFENSE PUBLICATIONS IN
LONDON, PAUL BEAVER, THINKS THAT DEPLOYMENT CAUSED THE CHINESE
MILITARY TO THINK TWICE ABOUT USING FORCE TO CAPTURE THE ISLAND
THEY REGARD AS A RENEGADE PROVINCE -- AT LEAST FOR THE FORSEEABLE
FUTURE.
// BEAVER ACTUALITY //
I THINK THAT THE CHINESE BELIEVED THEN THAT THE AMERICANS HAD
THE CAPABILITY OF RUSHING AIRCRAFT CARRIERS TO THE AREA. THEY
DID NOT BELIEVE THAT THEY WOULD ACTUALLY HAVE THE POLITICAL WILL
TO DO IT...IT MADE THEM RE-EXAMINE, FOR EXAMPLE, ANY PLANS THEY
MAY HAVE HAD FOR CAUSING A NAVAL BLOCKADE OF TAIWAN.
// END ACT //
BUT U-S DEFENSE ANALYSTS SAY CHINESE MILITARY STUDIES CONTINUE TO
PORTRAY THE UNITED STATES AS A SUPERPOWER IN DECLINE, WITH A
GRADUALLY ERODING COMMITMENT TO DEFEND TAIWAN AGAINST A CHINESE
ATTACK. THE ANALYSTS SAY THOSE STUDIES ALSO CONCLUDE THAT U-S
HIGH-TECH MILITARY CAPABILITIES ARE VULNERABLE TO ATTACK BY
ELECTRONIC SABOTAGE. BUT THE ANALYSTS SAY ESSAYS BY SENIOR
CHINESE OFFICERS SUGGEST THEIR VIEWS ARE MEDIUM-TO-LONG TERM AND
THAT THEY SEE AMERICA'S DECLINE COMING TWO OR THREE DECADES FROM
NOW.
MR. BEAVER SAYS CHINESE MILITARY THINKERS ARE DIVIDED ON WHETHER
OR NOT THEY SEE THE AMERICANS AS RIVALS IN THE YEARS AHEAD.
// BEAVER ACTUALITY //
THE CHINESE ARE PROBABLY SPLIT ON HOW THEY SEE THE AMERICANS IN
THE FUTURE. THERE IS A PARTY WHICH WOULD LOOK UPON THE
AMERICANS AS BEING A DIMINISHING PRESENCE IN ASIA IN TWO DECADES'
TIME. THERE IS PERHAPS A MAJORITY WHO BELIEVE, AS I BELIEVE,
THAT THE UNITED STATES IS COMMITTED TO ASIA, PROBABLY MORE THAN
IT IS COMMITTED TO EUROPE.
// END ACTUALITY //
MR. BEAVER SAYS WITHOUT AN AMERICAN PRESENCE, THERE WOULD BE A
LACK OF STABILITY IN THE REGION, AND IF CHINA TRIES TO FILL THE
VACUUM, SO WILL JAPAN.
GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY PROFESSOR DAVID SHAMBAUGH SAYS IT IS
DIFFICULT TO KNOW JUST WHAT CHINESE MILITARY LEADERS ARE
THINKING, BUT HE SUGGESTS THEY STILL MAY BE MISREADING U-S
INTENTIONS.
// SHAMBAUGH ACT //
I DO NOT THINK THE CHINESE UNDERESTIMATE AMERICAN MILITARY
POWER. I THINK THEY DO UNDERESTIMATE AMERICAN WILL TO USE FORCE
IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS.
// END ACTUALITY //
SINGAPORE'S "STRAITS TIMES" NEWSPAPER RECENTLY QUOTED AN
UN-IDENTIFIED CHINESE COMMANDER AS SAYING HIS COUNTRY IS
CONFIDENT IN ITS ABILITY TO SEIZE TAIWAN AS SOON AS THE UNITED
STATES FADES FROM THE PICTURE. BUT HE IS ALSO QUOTED AS SAYING
FADING U-S SUPPORT FOR TAIWAN WILL FORCE THE ISLAND INTO PEACEFUL
NEGOTIATIONS ABOUT RE-UNIFICATION.
ACCORDING TO STANFORD UNIVERSITY CHINA SCHOLAR MICHEL OKSENBERG,
TAIWAN IS THE MOST SERIOUS PROBLEM IN SINO-AMERICAN RELATIONS.
// OKSENBERG ACTUALITY //
I DO THINK THERE IS A DANGER THAT SOME CHINESE MAY UNDERESTIMATE
AMERICAN WILL ON THE TAIWAN ISSUE, THE DEEP SENSE OF OBLIGATION
THAT THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FEEL TOWARD THE 20-MILLION PEOPLE ON
TAIWAN, AND, OF COURSE, THE LEGAL OBLIGATIONS THAT ANY
ADMINISTRATION HAS TOWARD TAIWAN AS A RESULT OF THE TAIWAN
RELATIONS ACT.
// END ACTUALITY //
THAT 1979 LAW REQUIRES THE U-S GOVERNMENT TO COME TO TAIWAN'S AID
IN CASE IT IS ATTACKED, AND ALSO ALLOWS WASHINGTON TO SUPPLY
SO-CALLED DEFENSIVE WEAPONS TO THE ISLAND. U-S/CHINESE
AGREEMENTS CALL FOR THE GRADUAL REDUCTION AND EVENTUAL
ELIMINATION OF SUCH TRANSFERS, AND CHINA SAYS IT WILL PRESS
PRESIDENT CLINTON TO PUBLICLY PROMISE TO LIVE UP TO THOSE ACCORDS
DURING HIS UPCOMING VISIT TO CHINA.
U-S DIPLOMATS SAY WASHINGTON HAS PRIVATELY TOLD BOTH SIDES IT
WILL NOT HELP TAIWAN IF THE ISLAND DECLARES ITS OUTRIGHT
INDEPENDENCE, BUT IT WILL STAND BY TAIPEI, IF CHINA ATTACKS
WITHOUT PROVOCATION. (SIGNED)
NEB/RW/GC/FC/RAE
24-Jun-98 8:41 AM EDT (1241 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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