[Page: S663]
- [Begin insert]
It is the kind of talk that inevitably sours relations between China and the United States but, also, causes apprehension among the entire community of nations.
The United States made a mistake in the Shanghai Communique of not recognizing that Taiwan and China, in fact, today are two separate countries. If they eventually want to merge as East Germany and West Germany did, that is up to them.
But China should not think that when we read accounts like that in the New York Times, we sit idly by and think that it makes no difference. The New York Times editorial response to it, which I ask to be printed at the end of my remarks, is appropriate.
I want a good relationship with China. All of my colleagues want a good relationship with China. But China is impeding the possibility of that good relationship with its threats to Taiwan.
The New York Times article and editorial response follow:
As China Threatens Taiwan, It Makes Sure United States Listens
Beijing, Jan. 23: The Chinese leadership has sent unusually explicit warnings to the Clinton Administration that China has completed plans for a limited attack on Taiwan that could be mounted in the weeks after Taiwan's President, Lee Tenghui, wins the first democratic balloting for the presidency in March.
The purpose of this saber-rattling is apparently to prod the United States to rein in Taiwan and President Lee, whose push for greater international recognition for the island of 21 million people, has been condemned here as a drive for independence.
While no one familiar with the threats thinks China is on the verge of risking a catastrophic war against Taiwan, some China experts fear that the Taiwan issue has become such a test of national pride for Chinese leaders that the danger of war should be taken seriously.
A senior American official said the Administration has `no independent confirmation or even credible evidence' that the Chinese are contemplating an attack, and spoke almost dismissively of the prospect.
`They can fire missiles, but Taiwan has some teeth of its own,' the official said. `And does China want to risk that and the international effects?'
The most pointed of the Chinese warnings was conveyed recently through a former Assistant Secretary of Defense, Chas. W. Freeman Jr., who traveled to China this winter for discussions with senior Chinese officials. On Jan. 4, after returning to Washington, Mr. Freeman informed President Clinton's national security adviser, Anthony Lake, that the People's Liberation Army had prepared plans for a missile attack against Taiwan consisting of one conventional missile strike a day for 30 days.
This warning followed similar statements relayed to Administration officials by John W. Lewis, a Stanford University political scientist who meets frequently with senior Chinese military figures here.
These warnings do not mean that an attack on Taiwan is certain or imminent. Instead, a number of China specialists say that China, through `credible preparations' for an attack, hopes to intimidate the Taiwanese and to influence American policy toward Taiwan. The goal, these experts say, is to force Taiwan to abandon the campaign initiated by President Lee, including his effort to have Taiwan seated at the United Nations, and to end high-profile visits by President Lee to the United States and to other countries.
If the threats fail to rein in Mr. Lee, however, a number of experts now express the view that China could resort to force, despite the enormous consequences for its economy and for political stability in Asia.
Since last summer, when the White House allowed Mr. Lee to visit the United States, the Chinese leadership has escalated its attacks on the Taiwan leader, accusing him of seeking to `split the motherland' and undermine the `one China' policy that had been the bedrock of relations between Beijing and its estranged province since 1949.
A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, asked to comment on reports that the Chinese military has prepared plans for military action against Taiwan, said he was awaiting a response from his superiors. Last month, a senior ministry official said privately that China's obvious preparations for military action have been intended to head off an unwanted conflict.
`We have been trying to do all we can to avoid a scenario in which we are confronted in the end with no other option but a military one,' the official said. He said that if China does not succeed in changing Taiwan's course, `then I am afraid there is going to be a war.'
Mr. Freeman described the most recent warning during a meeting Mr. Lake had called with nongovernmental China specialists.
Participants said that Mr. Freeman's presentation was arresting as he described being told by a Chinese official of the advanced state of military planning. Preparations for a missile attack on Taiwan, he said, and the target selection to carry it out, have been completed and await a final decision by the Politburo in Beijing.
One of the most dramatic moments came when Mr. Freeman quoted a Chinese official as asserting that China could act militarily against Taiwan without fear of intervention by the United States because American leaders `care more about Los Angeles than they do about Taiwan,' a statement that Mr. Freeman characterized as an indirect threat by China to use nuclear weapons against the United States.
An account of the White House meeting was provided by some of the participants. Mr. Freeman, reached by telephone, confirmed the gist of his remarks, reiterating that he believes that while `Beijing clearly prefers negotiation to combat,' there is a new sense of urgency in Beijing to end Taiwan's quest for `independent international status.'
Mr. Freeman said that President Lee's behavior `in the weeks following his re-election will determine' whether Beijing's Communist Party leaders feel they must act `by direct military means' to change his behavior.
In recent months, Mr. Freeman said he has relayed a number of warnings to United States Government officials. `I have quoted senior Chinese who told me' that China `would sacrifice `millions of men' and `entire cities' to assure the unity of China and who opined that the United States would not make comparable sacrifices.'
He also asserted that `some in Beijing may be prepared to engage in nuclear blackmail against the U.S. to insure that Americans do not obstruct' efforts by the People's Liberation Army `to defend the principles of Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan and Chinese national unity.'
Some specialists at the meeting wondered if Mr. Freeman's presentation was too alarmist and suggested that parliamentary elections on Taiwan in December had resulted in losses for the ruling Nationalist Party and that President Lee appeared to be moderating his behavior to avoid a crisis.
`I am not alarmist at this point,' said one specialist, who would not comment on the substance of the White House meeting. `I don't think the evidence is developing in that direction.'
Other participants in the White House meeting, who said they would not violate the confidentiality pledge of the private session, separately expressed their concern that a potential military crisis is building in the Taiwan Strait.
`I think there is evidence to suggest that the Chinese are creating at least the option to apply military pressure to Taiwan if they feel that Taiwan is effectively moving out of China's orbit politically,' said Kenneth Lieberthal, a China scholar at the University of Michigan and an informal adviser to the Administration.
Mr. Lieberthal, who also has traveled to China in recent months, said Beijing has redeployed forces from other parts of the country to the coastal areas facing Taiwan and set up new command structures `for various kinds of military action against Taiwan.'
`They have done all this in a fashion they know Taiwan can monitor,' he said, `so as to become credible on the use of force.'
`I believe there has been no decision to use military force,' he continued, `and they recognize that it would be a policy failure for them to have to resort to force; but they have set up the option, they have communicated that in the most credible fashion and, I believe, the danger is that they would exercise it in certain circumstances.'
Several experts cited their concern that actions by Congress in the aftermath of President Lee's expected election could be a critical factor contributing to a military confrontation. If President Lee perceives that he has a strong base of support in the United States Congress and presses forward with his campaign to raise Taiwan's status, the risk of a military crisis is greater, they said. A chief concern is that Congress would seek to invite the Taiwan leader back to the United States as a gesture of American support. A Chinese military leader warned in November that such a step could have `explosive' results.
In recent months, American statements on whether United States forces would come to the defense of Taiwan if it came under attack have been deliberately vague so as to deter Beijing through a posture of what the Pentagon calls `strategic ambiguity.'
Some members of Congress assert that the Taiwan Relations Act of 1979 includes an implicit pledge to defend Taiwan if attacked, but Administration officials say that, in the end, the decision would depend on the timing, pretext and nature of Chinese aggression.
[Page: S664]
China Threatens Taiwan
China has made no secret of its concern that Taiwan is drifting toward independence with the tacit support of the United States. Beijing pounced on an unofficial visit to America last year by Taiwan's President, Lee Teng-hui, to register its strong objection to any potential change in Taiwan's status. But China has now escalated tensions by recklessly raising the prospect that it might use military force to intimidate Taiwan. The United States and other countries must make clear that such a step would unravel Beijing's relations with the international community and undermine China's prized economic boom.
Patrick Tyler of The Times reports that Chinese officials have let the Clinton Administration know that Beijing has completed plans for a limited military attack on Taiwan as soon as this spring unless the island bows to demands for a lower-profile foreign policy.
These warnings may well be nine-tenths diplomatic bluff. But even so they suggest that Beijing has lost sight of one of the basic understandings underlying improved Chinese-American relations since the Nixon Administration--that Taiwan's future status must be settled by peaceable means.
Beijing is plainly infuriated by the recent efforts of President Lee to win increased recognition for his country in foreign capitals and international bodies like the United Nations. The mainland Government sees Taiwan as an integral part of the historical Chinese empire, torn away by foreign imperialists and Chiang Kai-shek at a time when China was weak. Taiwanese see it differently, pointing to their centuries of separate cultural development and, more importantly, their hard-won political democracy and thriving capitalist economy as good reasons for standing somewhat apart.
China apparently hopes its warnings will lead Washington to lean on Mr. Lee to accommodate Beijing. While Washington should urge caution on both sides, the United States must vigorously reject military bullying from Beijing in cases like this.
Taiwan is too big to be treated as a mere pawn in relations between Washington and Beijing. It is America's seventh-largest trading partner, with 21 million people, a vibrant democracy and one of Asia's highest living standards.
More than anything else, it is the fear that today's freedoms and prosperity would be lost under Beijing's harsh authoritarian rule that fuels Taiwan's quest for a separate identity. Beijing would do better to address this fear with political and economic reforms at home rather than threatening the use of force across the Taiwan Straits.
- [End insert]
END
|
NEWSLETTER
|
| Join the GlobalSecurity.org mailing list |
|
|
|
