Tracking Number: 431630
Title: "China: Simmering Tensions Amount to 'Virtual War' for Pacific Supremacy." (960321)
Date: 19960514
Text:
FOREIGN MEDIA REACTION
DAILY DIGEST
USIA
OFFICE OF RESEARCH AND MEDIA REACTION
U.S. INFORMATION AGENCY, WASHINGTON, DC 20547
Patricia McArdle, Branch Chief Media Reaction, (R/MR),
Tele. No. (202)619-6511
Ann Pincus, Director
Thursday, March 21, 1996
CHINA: SIMMERING TENSIONS AMOUNT TO 'VIRTUAL WAR' FOR PACIFIC SUPREMACY
The undiminished tensions and military posturings in and around the Taiwan Strait during the final days before Taiwan's presidential election riveted the attention of nervous commentators in all regions. Predominant threads in the discussion were considerations of the role of the U.S. as global and regional superpower, including rivalry between Washington and Beijing over supremacy in the Pacific Basin, and the ulterior motives of Beijing, Taipei--and not incidentally--Washington. Beijing's official China Daily ominously warned that a crisis would be "inevitable" if further U.S. actions stretch the one-China policy "beyond the limit." Elsewhere, others predicted that the weapons employed would remain rhetorical ones. Still, many writers, impressed by the sheer might of the "two elephants" with their vast bellicose potential, fretted that an accident or miscommunication could trigger outright warfare; one even called for a Beijing-Washington hotline to prevent such an occurrence.
Although some Asian writers--notably in Thailand--criticized the U.S. naval presence as "overbearing" and inappropriate, many others welcomed Washington's display of resolve. The conservative Australian emphasized, "An East Asia without the United States would be unstable, dangerous, prone to arms races and almost certainly dominated by China. And as the past few weeks have shown, that is no pleasant prospect." Independent Catholic De Standaard of Brussels chimed in, "Despite everything the Americans are blamed for worldwide, they remain the only credible guarantors against brutal state terrorism in crisis situations--a designation that would certainly apply to a Chinese attack against Taiwan." For its part, Amman's influential Al-Ray likened the economic stakes to Middle Eastern oil, and spoke derisively of "American booty and spoils of war." While several observers, from London to Moscow, stressed China's determination to stop Taiwan from declaring independence, quite a few others warned Taipei that despite verbal shows of support, Washington was not likely to take military action on Taiwan's account. Many dailies also noted the political advantage accruing to President Clinton through his "prudent determination" to confront the Beijing leadership with the dispatch of U.S. naval power.
Some analysts, especially from prosperous economies like Japan and Germany, stressed that China needs peace to develop and that Beijing is dependent on Western assistance to restructure its economy. Similarly, South Korean observers were pragmatic, citing as beneficiaries of Beijing's bullying Taiwan's President Lee, who stands to gain valuable votes this weekend, and the U.S. arms industry, which is poised to pick up more customers among anxious Asian governments and is already gratified by the promised sale of weaponry to Taiwan. French economic dailies railed that Washington was profiting politically and commercially from the standoff and lamented Europe's absence from the scene. Hong Kong's center-left Tin Tin Daily News predicted that tensions would only fester as the calendar courses through a series of provocative events, from Taiwan's election through June's annual congressional debate on Beijing's Most Favored Nation trade status. India's independent Economic Times cautioned that China may resume nuclear testing, and that the U.S. will have to negotiate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty to China's taste if it is to be presented to this year's General Assembly session.
This report is based on 195 commentaries from 38 countries, March 13-21.
EDITOR: Rose Sue Berstein
EAST ASIA AND PACIFIC
CHINA: "U.S. Fuels Cross-Strait Tension"
Foreign policy expert Yam Xuetong wrote in today's official, English-language China Daily (3/20), "Some tension in the Taiwan Strait, while deleterious to the Chinese...benefits the United States in a variety of ways.... Some tension will bog down China's reunification process and thwart its rise to a power that...would pose a challenge to U.S. dominance. The interruption would also gain time for those wishing for a peaceful (transition to ) an independent Taiwan. Second, tension will provide the United States with an excuse to keep its military presence in East Asia.... Third, tension will be a boost to the U.S. military industry...and make it easier to export arms (to Asia).... By (fostering) the development of informal, unofficial relationships with Taiwan, increasing sales of arms to Taiwan and supporting Taiwan's bid to expand its internal presence, the United States is actually gradually undoing its one-China policy.... As...Congress continues to pressure the Clinton administration...it is likely that someday, U.S. actions will erode the one-China policy beyond the limit."
TAIWAN: "U.S. Should Sell Sufficient Arms To Taiwan"
The pro-independence Independence Morning News remarked (3/21), "Under the shadow of the PRC's military exercises, the United States deliberately announced the news yesterday about the annual U.S. Taiwan arms sales negotiations....
"On the same day, the U.S. House of Representatives also overwhelmingly passed a resolution which advocates that the U.S. should help defend Taiwan against any attack.... The United States has clearly proved that its decision to help defend Taiwan should not be doubted. The change in the U.S. attitude toward its arms sales to Taiwan has proved that the United States has adjusted its military strategy in the Western Pacific region. It shows that the United States will not continue to yield to the PRC's pressure. This new situation is certainly turning from a crisis to an opportunity for Taiwan, and that is something the PRC miscalculated. This is a blessing for Taiwan."
"Arms Sales To Taiwan"
A retired military officer commented in the moderate United Daily News (3/21), "Although the United States sent two ships to Taiwan waters, it only wants to express its concern about protection of its interests in this region and the security of the Taiwan Strait. This does not mean there has been a major change in the U.S. attitude of supporting Taiwan."
TAIWAN: "Don't 'Misread' U.S. Aim As Support For Independence"
Washington correspondent Louise Ran remarked in the pro-establishment Commercial Times (3/20), "The stern attitude of the U.S. administration as well as the concern shown by the U.S. Congress are not aimed at supporting Taiwan independence. This (Taiwan independence) does not conform to U.S. policy. In addition, most U.S. congressmen are 'pragmatists,' who though they will not allow Beijing to use force to intimidate Taiwan, will not be happy to see Taipei...actively provoking Beijing. It is also not expected that they will endorse a plan for the United States to even get involved in armed conflicts across the Taiwan Strait."
"Be Wary Of U.S. Acts To Maintain Strength In Far East"
Kao Hsiung-poh wrote in pro-establishment China Times (3/18), "The real dangers (for Taiwan) come from other aspects--namely, the lack of a forward-looking strategic vision by the United States. The United States is worried that Communist China's military forces will deny the United States' position as the hegemonic power in the Far East if Beijing continues its economic growth.... The most impressive means...is (U.S.) action in cultivating secret Taiwan independence forces...to incite Beijing....
"The Southeast Asian countries, including Taiwan, have made a lot of money in mainland China over the past few years. This...indicates that the loss is on the neighboring countries should tension rise in the Taiwan Strait.... It will make these countries turn to rely on the U.S. market. This is also one of the hidden reasons that explain why Washington insisted on creating tension in this area."
JAPAN: "Peace Necessary For China's Development"
Liberal Asahi held (3/19), "Although China has emphasized all along that it needs a peaceful international environment, we fear the recent series of Chinese military exercises could undermine the 'reform and open-door' policy that Beijing has been following since 1978.... China has announced an ambitious plan to double its gross national product by 2010. Now more than ever, China must have a peaceful international environment to continue its rapid economic expansion.... It should also build a law-abiding society to promote its standing in the international community."
"Chinese Militarism Worrisome"
Conservative Sankei remarked (3/19), "The Taiwan issue dominated the just-ended National People's Congress in Beijing.... Wasn't that Beijing's usual way of diverting public attention from domestic problems to external issues? We are concerned that the military is becoming more influential within the hard-line Chinese leadership. Premier Li Peng's report highlighted a long-term plan to incorporate a national defense buildup into economic development, and a demonstration of force rather than dialogue to unify the mainland and Taiwan.... We should not turn a blind eye to the fact that militarism is looming larger in China."
AUSTRALIA: "U.S. Presence In East Asia Critical For Stability"
The conservative Australian's foreign editor (3/20) opined, "No one has been more strongly in favor of Australian integration with East Asia than I, or more critical of the Clinton administration's policy toward the region these past three years. But the underlying, structural importance of the United States to East Asia has not declined with the end of the Cold War. In some ways it has grown.... The United States of America, whatever its imperfections in practice, is one of the great ideas that mankind has ever had. And modern East Asia, in a way is the great testament to that idea. No power could have been more benign for the vast bulk of East Asians than the United States in the critical period after WWII.... An East Asia without the United States would be unstable, dangerous, prone to arms races and almost certainly dominated by China. And as the past few weeks have shown, that is no pleasant prospect."
"U.S. Won't Fight To Safeguard Taiwan"
The liberal Canberra Times ran this op-ed view (3/19): "Two certainties can be factored in to Australia's defense and foreign policies: Taiwan will sooner or later be absorbed into China, and the United States will not risk war to prevent it.... In response to China's current war games in the vicinity of Taiwan, President Bill Clinton has ordered two aircraft-carrier task forces to the area, but this has more to do with the election campaign...than any warlike purpose.... That there is in any case no stomach in Washington for a military clash with China is illustrated by the resolution at present before the House of Representatives.... The implications of China's current military demonstrations go beyond Taiwan. They signal Beijing's ambition to establish strategic dominance over the East China and South China Seas.... For Australia also the effects would be ruinous.... The question for Australia is whether sufficient strength to restrain Chinese ambitions can be cooperatively developed in the North Pacific by Japan, South Korea and, conceivably, Russia, and South-East Asia by ASEAN and Australia."
"Region's Stability Is Now At Stake"
Conservative Brisbane Courier Mail held (3/20), "China's pressure on Taiwan has far from slackened following the disturbing demonstration of the mainland's military prowess in the Taiwan Strait. Quite the reverse: Beijing remains determined to press ahead with intimidating behavior.... Also plain is that the Beijing government has badly miscalculated America's will.... China may become the number one power on the western side of the Pacific--unless the United States is there as a partner with Japan to balance China. What is at stake is the future of stability in all of East Asia. This is one of history's turning points."
HONG KONG: "Hegemony Rivalry Vs. Regional Security"
Mass-circulation Oriental Daily News (3/20) held, "If the USS Nimitz passes through the Taiwan Strait, China may view it as a military provocation from the United States, the situation will be more tense and the rivalry between China and the United States will be more abrupt.... The whereabouts of Nimitz will be the index for the Taiwan crisis. Let's see whether rivalry for hegemony or regional security is more important."
"More Tension As MFN Decision Also Looms"
The center-left Tin Tin Daily News remarked (3/19), "Though the U.S. warships berth at the eastern side of Taiwan waters to threaten China at present, China is still in check. However, if the U.S. intervention goes further, Sino-U.S. relations may become critical. Even if there is no military conflict, the tension will add more variables that will influence the decision on Most Favored Nation treatment in June."
"Seize Opportunity To Back Down"
The independent Ming Pao Daily News opined (3/16), "Washington has allowed Americans to give vent to their resentment against Beijing and given Taiwan what seems like support. Economically, the United States has heightened Taiwan's and some Asian nations' sense of crisis, which will result in some business for U.S. arms suppliers. Militarily, Washington has shown off and consolidated the United States' status as global overlord and obtained accurate information on the military capabilities of China, a potential rival, through short-distance monitoring....
"The United States has obtained much of what it set out to gain. Further intervention may backfire. If Taiwan proclaims independence, the United States will lose a trump card which it can use to contain China. Since the cross-strait crisis set in, the U.S. government has remained positive about renewing China's most-favored-nation trading status, which shows clearly that the United States has no intention of falling out with China."
"China Gets A Flash In The Pan"
The independent Hong Kong Economic Journal said (3/15), "Asking that U.S. military strength keep the sea lanes and air routes unimpeded is the same as asking to use the U.S. taxpayer's money to protect benefits for U.S. business competitors."
INDONESIA: "Historical Perspective On China-Taiwan Dispute"
Independent, critical Media Indonesia (3/20) said, "Many countries have interests in the region. The United States surely cannot allow China to invade Taiwan (compare this situation to U.S. action on the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait). Japan would also perceive an invasion as a threat, as its southern islands are close to Taiwan's borders. As for Southeast Asia, involved in a barely-restrained conflict with China over the Spratly Islands, an invasion would be considered a provocation against their sovereignty. Second, an invasion would affect China's economy. The 25,000 Taiwanese companies investing up to $20 billion in China (per Kompas newspaper story of March 13) would withdraw their capital should intimidation continue.... China's intimidation may be a bluff, but if Deng...and his hard-line comrades feel a duty to build the Chinese empire before the 21st century, a crisis in the Pacific region will be hard to avoid."
"Possibility Of U.S. Involvement In War?"
Ani Soetjipto opined in Muslim intellectual Republika (3/19), "It is assumed that the United States will not be directly involved in a war between China and Taiwan--if it were to happen. At the most, the United States would provide military assistance to Taiwan.... This would involve the least risk, while not violating the U.S. commitment to either Taiwan or China. It would be dangerous for the United States to be directly involved in an outright war, as that would force the Southeast Asian countries to take side with one party in the U.S.-China conflict."
"China Wants To Show Legitimacy Over Taiwan"
Independent Suara Pembaruan observed (3/16), "Taiwan is a matter of honor for China.... A display of military power worries the entire world, particularly Southeast Asia and Japan. We suggest the use of diplomacy and revival of the 'inter-straits' policy used in the past.... China and Taiwan are of the same culture, and respect tradition and their ancestral heritage (which respects peace)."
MALAYSIA: "Tension Around Taiwan Threatens The Peace In Asia"
Government-influenced Malay-language Utusan Malaysia (3/20) commented, "The deteriorating relations between Taiwan and China have caused some worried observers to began talking about the possibility of a military confrontation between the two countries.... It was unprecedented for China to demonstrate such a powerful weapon, capable of carrying nuclear warheads, by firing it out of its territory near Taiwan and Japan, where no effective defense against such a missile system exists. "In addition to the obvious risks of conflict, any fighting between Taiwan and China would have serious economic costs to both countries, which have a close trade relationship despite their immutable political stances. And any fighting would surely cause serious strains for the United States, which has ties to both countries."
NEW ZEALAND: "Reckless Games"
The moderate Press in Christchurch remarked (3/19), "The missile tests and now the war exercises in the Strait of Taiwan and on the mainland are attempts to intimidate and bully Taiwanese over their elections. They are also reckless. Even if China has no intention of attacking Taiwan, accidents happen.... The missile tests and war exercises have demonstrated several things. The first is that China is prepared to take big risks with the lives of Taiwanese, some of whom it regards as compatriots, and with regional peace. The second has to do with the role of the United States.... The exact nature of U.S. intervention is being widely discussed. The presence of the United States is sufficiently ambiguous to give China pause in its treatment of Taiwan and also sufficiently ambiguous to deter Taiwan from using it as an excuse to declare itself independent. Without that steadying presence the situation would be more unpredictable and dangerous."
"Chinese Tension"
The conservative Otago Daily Times contended (3/13), "Beijing's continuing provocative actions still seem like risky brinksmanship that could threaten the stability of the whole region."
PHILIPPINES: "China Misjudging Global Reponse"
Beth Day-Romulo wrote in the top-circulation Manila Bulletin (3/21), "The U.S. ships standing by while China plays out its dangerous war games to intimidate Taiwan is a clear response.... Bullying tactics seldom win a point. China is misjudging global response to its belligerence, and may also be misjudging the reaction to overseas Chinese.... The time has come when a firm 'don't do that. We are watching' becomes necessary."
"Democracy Is A Concern"
Political science professor Alex Magno wrote in the independent Manila Standard (3/16): "Beijing has...caused a cloud of doubt to hover over the dynamism of the best-performing regional economy in the world. Any reasonable mind should commend Washington's bold decision to deploy two carrier battle groups to the scene of China's wholesale intimidation. The entry of U.S. naval forces into the theater of potential military engagement quickly brought down anxieties and prevented regional stock markets from completely collapsing--a possibility indicated by last Monday's across-the-board stock retreat. While what is most apparent in this event are the tensions brought about by military confrontation, the really historical struggle here is over the future of democratization in asia."
"Is China Ready To Challenge The Whole World?"
Columnist Ninez Olivares wrote in Business World (3/14), "If China...went to war against Taiwan...15 years ago...(it) could count on its Communist allies like the Soviet Union.... The Soviet Union is no more, and today Russia is an ally of the United States. If China does annihilate Taiwan for the sheer pleasure of proving its military might, it will be a case of China against the world. Is China...ready to go against the world?"
SINGAPORE: "It's All Up To Lee Teng-Hui"
The pro-government Straits Times (3/21) held, "The Taiwanese should be glad they are choosing their president on Saturday.... Realistically, their ability to shape their own future may be limited.... The worry is that, against his better judgment, Mr. Lee might be emboldened by a resounding mandate to press his case (and luck) for what has expansively been called more space for Taiwan. This would be the worst possible outcome. There is a clear danger that China will react badly, if not violently, to such a turn of events....
"Although the Clinton administration's position on Taiwan being a part of China is unshaken, agitation by Congress can gather momentum far beyond Washington. If it came to that, President Lee would, in a rhetorical turn-around, be the one 'condemned by history' if he allowed himself to be seduced by the partisan view of a few hundred American legislators. And, as a people under siege, the Taiwanese should not be deluded into thinking that the Americans are going to be around forever with a naval armada....
"A breakdown in relations between the United States and China cannot be in the long-term interest of either country or of the entire...region."
"Why U.S. Has No Desire To Send Troops To Defend Taiwan?"
Ruan Cishan remarked in pro-government, Chinese-language Lianhe Zaobao (3/14), Nobody knows better than Secretary of State Warren Christopher whether the United States is 'willing' or 'able' to send troops to defend Taiwan.... When the Congress formulated the Taiwan Relations Act, both the U.S. government and opposition adopted the strategy of a triangular balance of U.S.-Taiwan, China-Taiwan and China-U.S. relations.... It did not approve of any move by Taiwan to achieve independence.... President Clinton is busy preparing for the November presidential election. Meanwhile...Bosnia, Palestine, Northern Ireland and Russian elections have turned into crises.... In view of the above historical backgrounds, international situations and America's domestic concerns, the likelihood of the United States sending troops to defend Taiwan is 'almost nil.'"
SOUTH KOREA: "Verbal Warnings, But U.S. Military Involvement Uncertain"
Conservative Segye Ilbo asked (3/21), "If China attacks Taiwan, will the United States take military action? At this point, the answer is not clear. Though not committed to Taiwan for automatic intervention, Washington has flexibility in deciding what to do."
"U.S., China Moving Toward A Hegemonic Fight"
Segye Ilbo stated (3/21), "The United States is stepping up efforts in curbing China so as to reduce it to a 'permanent second power.' A prolonged U.S.-China contest for power is going to provoke an arms race in the region, and will have a negative impact on the Korean peninsula. Unless Washington plays a new card, the power game may not end soon."
"Chinese Threat Helps President Lee"
Conservative Chosun Ilbo (3/20) maintained, "Although it's too early to tell if President Lee will be able to win a majority in the election, he is emerging as the greatest beneficiary of China's military threats."
"Open Door For U.S. Arms Exports To Taiwan"
Independent Dong-A Ilbo (3/20) noted, "The Chinese show of force in the Strait has not only strengthened Taiwan's defense capability, it has started a 'good season' for U.S. arms exports to Taiwan. Although Washington's policy toward Taiwan remains ambiguous, a new anti-China mood is forming in America, and arms sales to Taiwan are increasingly viewed in a positive light."
"Taiwan Crisis Heating Up Again"
Segye Ilbo held (3/19), "For now, the big problem is that a military confrontation between the United States and China is becoming a real possibility.... Since China seems to have achieved whatever goals it had set for the maneuvers, it now should reassume the responsible role of a UNSC nation."
"Taiwan Calls Maneuvers A Failure"
Conservative Chosun Ilbo asserted (3/17), "Because of its war games, China is now viewed as being as dangerous as Iraq."
THAILAND: "Swashbuckling Chinese Urchin"
The Nation's Thai-language sister publication, Krungthep Turakij (3/21) said, "Despite much talk about the reduced threats following the end of the Cold War, regional countries have in fact spent more money building up their arsenals, which seems to indicate their distrust of each other. Particularly with China carrying out its series of exercises without heeding others' anxiety, smaller countries of Asia now have sufficient proof of their lingering doubts (about potential threats) and excuses for the arms buildup.... Today, China is being cautiously watched as a bully who is armed to the teeth, and everyone seems to agree that its unruly behavior has necessitated American constant presence in the area."
"Ask Taiwanese Too"
Elite Matichon commented (3/19), "Taiwan has emerged as an economic success story and with it comes the Taiwanese people's strong determination to be free from being further used as an international pawn against China.... As Taiwan has been a de facto independent state since the establishment of the PRC, the Taiwanese people ought to be allowed to determine their own destiny."
"Neo-Colonialism"
Centrist Ban Muang observed (3/15), "China is the last remaining state whose military capability the United States would be unable to subdue easily.... The China-Taiwan conflict...a matter of China dealing with its renegade province...would never degenerate into a major crisis if the United States and other countries do not interfere, incite or take sides."
EUROPE
BRITAIN: "A Cold War Cauldron"
The conservative tabloid Daily Express (3/20) said, "This is the kind of superpower confrontation supposed to have vanished from today's world. It is deeply--and dangerously--linked to the internal politics of both countries, and the fear is that their leaders may let themselves be pushed into positions from which they cannot retreat.... "It may all end up with nothing more dangerous than rhetoric being exchanged. But the real fear is that something could go terribly wrong by accident.... Domestic political pressures might push any one of the three parties involved into going beyond the brink. Only a meeting between the Chinese and American presidents could hope to clear the air. But would Clinton risk that in an election year?"
"Backfire"
The centrist Independent held (3/18), "The Chinese intimidation of Taiwan only underscores how vital the United States is to maintaining a peaceful balance of power in the region."
"Pax Americana"
The conservative Sunday Times averred (3/17), "American power has returned as a potent factor in conflicts across the world this weekend, and those who uphold democracy have cause to be grateful.... President Clinton presides over an administration whose international objectives are finally, if belatedly, clear and whose motives are to be applauded.
"China, the world's last totalitarian superstate, has been left in little doubt that any attack on Taiwan would be resisted by American force. While the rest of southeast Asia has ducked for cover, the United States has once more drawn the line on the mainland's takeover ambitions toward its prosperous but (in all but name) independent offshore island."
"China Won't Cross The Line"
The conservative Daily Telegraph's (3/18) China correspondent Graham Hutchings said from Taipei, "Few believe China is yet ready to shed blood in the cause of unification, especially when--as Sun-tzu, its ancient military strategist, pointed out--bravado and bluster can be as effective as genuine belligerence."
GERMANY: "In A Delicate Situation"
Siegfried Thielbeer opined in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine, (3/20), "Previous U.S. considerations for China proved to be superfluous after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Instead the Washington government became increasingly concerned about China's growing power.... In the meantime, Washington sees the international status quo to be in jeopardy, while the government in Beijing is accusing the Americans of pursuing a containment policy toward China. A lot of things in the current situation are an overreaction on both sides.
"For Beijing, Taiwan is a matter of principle. The rejection of foreign interference attempts is based on the nationalist core of the Communist tradition. But for the United States, the protection of Taiwan...is a basic question as far as economic, civilian and cultural affairs are concerned. The government in Washington would also not tolerate an attack on the Philippines. A belligerent conflict can be in neither the U.S. nor the Chinese interest. Reason should tell all sides involved that they were best served with the preservation of the status quo."
"Who Needs Such A Crisis?"
Right-of-center Berliner Morgenpost (3/20) held, "If a conquest is impossible and an economic strangling not advisable, this incident should demonstrate to Taiwan that nobody is seriously willing to enter into a conflict with China and its future markets.
"This is also true for the U.S. superpower, where President Clinton needs a large-scale crisis like he needs a broken arm."
"Who's Number One Here?"
Right-of-center Die Rheinpfalz of Ludwigshafen opined (3/19), "The conflict about Taiwan is overshadowing another conflict: The two major powers...are at odds...over supremacy in the Pacific Basin. But nobody is really expecting Chinese nuclear bombs 'raining' on Los Angeles as a lower-ranking Chinese official liked to say.... The Beijing government is trying to raise concerns in the United States--thus preventing leading U.S. politicians, who are in the midst of an election campaign, from acting against public opinion and firmly side with Taiwan."
"China Needs Western Help"
Right-of-center Berliner Kurier (3/19) held, "It is as if the Cold War did not end a few years ago.... Those who want to help Taiwan will be deterred with the worst of all weapons. But the Beijing government forgets that it is dependent on Western assistance in the restructuring of its economy. This must be clearly said to the Communist rulers. If this proves to be inefficient, sanctions should be taken. But so far we have not heard anything like this in Bonn or Washington. Human rights, however, are indivisible. They should not be set off against good business."
FRANCE: "Washington Benefits From The Conflict"
Financial La Tribune's special envoy to Taipei Philippe Le Corre remarked (3/19), "In the United States, key figures in the defense industry and, therefore, politicians, are rubbing their hands: Taiwan is rich and needs a solid defense system.... Once again, one is forced to notice Europe's absence. They are cautiously not taking sides in an affair which bears multiple consequences."
"Cui Bono?"
Economic Les Echos held (3/19), "The real or supposed danger incites the Taiwanese to rally around their president and motivates voters whom China encouraged to boycott the vote. In Beijing...this exercise has allowed the president and the prime minister...to position themselves in this transition period, i.e., on the eve of Deng Ziaoping's disappearance.... As to U.S. President Bill Clinton, who sent two carriers to the region, his prudent determination might be politically profitable...in the November 5 elections."
ITALY: "China's Nightmare Is Called Democracy"
A commentary by Alberto Pasolini Zanelli in leading rightist Il Giornale (3/19), "What worries Beijing so much is not Taiwan's independence, but the fact that elections in 'part of China' to legitimize such independence represents a dangerous precedent. It may lead to a request for similar legitimization in continental China. Where a lot of things have changed, where Communism is declining amid prosperity, but where it is still dogma that political power is not determined by ballots but by bullets. In this modern era, not by ballots but by missiles."
"What's Happening?"
Centrist, top-circulation Corriere della Sera (3/15) ran this from Singapore: "More than fear, what is growing in Taiwan and, more generally, in Asia, is puzzlement. "As days go by, the intentions of Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui, of China and America appear less and less clear. That is done on purpose by the three protagonists: Lee cannot reveal how far he intends to go in seeking Taiwan's independence. Beijing has to make the others believe that it is ready for war, but yesterday, according to a Pentagon source, it gave the United States 'concrete assurances' that it has no intention of attacking Taiwan.... Washington won't say whether it would participate in a possible conflict, and won't abandon the stated line of 'strategic ambiguity' which leaves both Beijing and Taipei in an uncertain position."
RUSSIA: "U.S. Navy Inspires Taiwanese"
Alexander Platkovsky reported from Beijing for reformist Izvestia (3/20), "Nothing it seems would please Beijing more than for Taiwanese voters to boycott the coming presidential election. But the islanders will be the last to give such a present to Big China. So far, its psychological pressure has been counterproductive, as the Taiwanese, inspired by the U.S. naval presence, have been getting increasingly determined to demonstrate their unbending will."
"Beijing Makes Its Point"
Dmitry Privalov reported from Beijing for centrist, trade union Trud (3/19), "As it engages in saber-rattling off Taiwan, Beijing, according to observers, has already made its point, leaving no doubt in anyone's mind about its resolve to go any length to stop Taiwan from formally declaring independence."
"Reminders Of Vietnam War"
Andrei Smirnov opined in reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (3/16), "Washington's official reaction to goings-on in the Taiwan Strait has been that of a discrepancy between its words and deeds. As officials speak soothingly of an armed conflict being impossible, the U.S. naval presence off Taiwan keeps growing...to become the largest U.S. armada in South-East Asia since the Vietnam War. An analogy with the Vietnam War is all too obvious."
"Beijing-Washington: Game of Nerves"
Vladimir Nadein reported from Washington in reformist Izvestia (3/14), "Any other year, Beijing's assurances that Washington has nothing to worry about would be enough for the two capitals to exchange snide diplomatic notes and leave things at that. Not this year, when the coming elections make both sides intractable."
AUSTRIA: "Struggle For Control Of Asia Pacific"
Foreign Affairs writer Gerhard Bitzan wrote (3/20) in presitigious, conservative Die Presse, "This tug-of-war goes far beyond the Taiwan issue. It is also an ideological and economic struggle for hegemony in the Asian region. And the Communists seem determined to see how far they can go in forcing their will upon other states."
"But Beijing Couldn't Possibly..."
Brigitte Voykowitsch commented in Der Standard (3/13), "To many Asian states, the American presence is an important counterweight to a hegemonic China and a potentially resurrecting military power of Japan.... 'But Beijing could not possibly!'... Does the West really think this regime will come to its senses by itself?"
BELGIUM: "War of Words"
Foreign editor Axel Buyse held in independent Catholic De Standaard (3/21), "The Americans have turned up at a very inconvenient moment. From the moment Beijing started beating the war drums, Washington could do little less than show its flag.
"Despite everything the Americans are blamed for worldwide, they remain the only credible guarantors against brutal state terrorism in crisis situations--a designation that would certainly apply to a Chinese attack against Taiwan. But the strategists in Washington are certainly far from happy with all that fuss. The continuing fluctuations in the relationship between both superpowers since 1989 are a big-as-life threat to America's economic interests. While rhetoric in both Beijing and Washington is reaching a zenith, attempts are being made behind the scenes to cool off the conflict."
"Beijing Threatens, Taiwan Votes"
Foreign affairs writer Freddy De Pauw observed (3/19) in De Standaard, "China's threats have caused the Taiwanese voters to be more prudent. Lee is aiming at half of the votes. Yet, even if he obtains that score, he will clearly have to take into account the 'big voters' in Beijing."
BULGARIA: "No One Wants War In Taiwan Strait"
Ruling Socialist Party Duma (3/15) observed, "President Clinton is not bursting with desire to make U.S.-Chinese relations a part of his presidential campaign. A possible conflict at this moment will mean putting an end to any hope for constructive cooperation with Beijing in the future. Moreover, U.S. involvement in such a conflict will threaten the relations of the White House with other countries in the region. Yet, the Americans sent their armada there to show once again their intention to become the dominating power in the Asia-Pacific area. U.S. relations with Japan are of substantial importance in this case. If the United States decides to take part in the conflict, this means that it has to use its military bases on the territory of Japan and thus, setting Japan up against Beijing."
CANADA: "Why China Fears Taiwan"
International affairs writer Marcus Gee wrote in the leading Toronto Globe and Mail (3/20), "If the Chinese catch the Taiwanese bug, China's authoritarian system of government is doomed. That fact, as much as traditional nationalism, explains the panicky Chinese reaction to Saturday's Taiwanese election. Though they may have reason to fear 'losing' Taiwan, China's leaders fear losing their skins even more."
"Flirting With War"
The left-of-center Vancouver Sun (3/13) opined, "The biggest security dilemma of our time is how to recognize growing Chinese power without allowing that country to dominate and intimidate its weaker neighbors. For the moment, a policy of accommodation rather than confrontation is the right one. But China is looking less and less like a country that is willing to be accommodated."
ESTONIA: "U.S. Troubles Do Not End With China"
Top-circulation, center-right Postimees commented (3/20), "Americans had much success in last year's foreign policy and without doubt their glory may continue, if opponents are 'small operators' such as Serbs and Haitians. But Chinese can and want to step out against Americans. Troubles do not end with China. Russia also wants respect. Easiest is for the Russians to join with the Chinese and to show the Yankees. Russians would be the smaller brother in this partnership, but if Americans will pressure too much with force, Russians may start to act."
LATVIA: "Who Has The Golden Goose, Who The China Card?"
Centrist Neatkariga Rita Avize (3/15) commented, "If (China) directly attacked Taiwan, it would seriously harm its relations with the United States and hurt itself economically....
"Concerns are growing that this situation may result in a prolonged cold war between the United States and China.... That is not too hard to believe, because as President Clinton tried to quell the flood of terrorism in the Near East, the crisis in the Far East grows."
THE NETHERLANDS: "President Clinton Faces Major Dilemmas"
Amsterdam's financial Het Financieele Dagblad (3/15) commented, "Even if Clinton does not dare to make a clear choice, he will not be able to remain passive. He will have to show that he realizes that the conflict has become a lot worse over the past years. He will also have to do his best to generate some sort of a dialogue between both parties, even though there cannot be a direct U.S. mediation. He will have to emphasize to Congress and the Republicans that it is not America's policy to encourage Taiwan's independence and to undermine China's position as a large power. And to Taiwan, he will have to say that yes, America will indeed continue arms sales, but that this does not mean that it will rush out to help if Taipei provokes a Chinese attack."
NORWAY: "Cannon diplomacy"
Top-selling tabloid VG (3/20) said, "Those in power in the Red dictatorship worry that the demand for democracy could spread when a democratic regime is established in an area China regards as a part of China."
"Test For U.S. Presence And Role"
Conservative Aftenposten (3/18) held, "To the world, but especially to Asia, confidence in the United States as the protector of democracies is at stake. President Clinton must steer his warships in the Strait of Taiwan in such a way that the leaders in Beijing are scared into refraining from extreme measures against Taiwan.... Most importantly, Taiwan's election should be free and uninterrupted."
"Dangerous"
Center Party-affiliated Nationen commented (3/15), "The Repubicans feel that America has a moral responsibility to side with Taiwan, and President Clinton doesn't want to appear to be weak in an election year. Consequently, this could be a real trial of strength between very strong forces in China and the United States."
SPAIN: "The Siege Of Taiwan"
Leading, liberal El Pais (3/14) held, "China's military maneuvers near Taiwan's coast constitute, in practice, a naval blocking of the 'other China' which will end with the first democratic election of a president in the island. Undoubtedly the prosperous Pacific island will recover economically soon but the Chinese threats will not stop the electors from democratically ratifying Lee in his position. Despite the verbal war among Washington, Beijing and Taipei everything seems to indicate that this military operation will end without consequences. However, the main lesson to be learnt from this mini crisis is China's will to act as the region's superpower by using such illegal methods as those used to silence internal dissent."
SWEDEN: "China's Nationalism, A Threat"
Liberal Dagens Nyheter (3/18) stated, "For too long the Western world has ignored China's increasing aggressiveness.... Now there is a risk that there will be a crack in the belief that development toward prosperity would link China into a peaceful global trade and investment net; a gigantic consumer market.... Most people hope that China after all will restrain itself militarily. But will Beijing really just give in and return to a cultural and economic exchange (with Taiwan) if Lee Teng-hui wins a decisive victory, resulting in an enhanced Taiwanese self-esteem? The Falkland crisis in 1982 proved that the intentions of a dictatorship can be misinterpreted. A Chinese blockade of Taiwan would bring about an economic and political crisis of great proportions."
SOUTH ASIA
INDIA: "To Be Taiwan"
The right-of-center Statesman (3/20) held, "China, to put it simply, is paranoid about Taiwan, in a way it is not about Hong Kong or Tibet.... It is freedom that will justify the Taiwanese right, if not to independence, then at least to separateness. It will also irritate and frighten China no end. Taiwan is much bigger than Tiananmen Square."
"Stakes In Taiwan Crisis"
The Global Watch column in the independent Economic Times (3/20) concluded, "This is not a China-Taiwan confrontation but a China-U.S. one with Taiwan as the stake. The messages generated out of the confrontation will have their impact all over the Asia-Pacific rim and beyond. While the immediate target may be the Taiwanese elections, China may have a longer-range perspective in mind.... China is a nuclear weapon power on its own right and is signalling to the United States and the rest of the world the change in the U.S. capability in the Western Pacific vis a vis China of today. After this excitement over Taiwan dies down, China may carry out its nuclear tests. Meanwhile the United States will have to negotiate the comprehensive test ban treaty to China's satisfaction if it wants the treaty to be finalized before this year's General Assembly session."
"U.S. Walking Tightrope To Ease Tensions With China"
The independent Hindu's Washington correspondent Sridhar Krishnaswami said (3/19), "The crisis has shown the...need for a policy that has to be relevant in the post-Cold War era....
"Critics of the Clinton administration ask how is it relevant to keep talking about constructive engagement when China does not seem to be keen on playing by the rules of the game. Although a meaningful show of force is valid and a deterrent, the success of the overall policy also hinges on the ability of the United States to counsel Taiwan against any brash moves that would upset not only the firmly laid out one-China policy but also the strategic calculations in the region. Just as the emphasis has been on telling China to back off from any move to invade Taiwan, an equal emphasis ought to be there in telling leaders of Taiwan to abandon their independence moves."
PAKISTAN: "Tension"
Rawalpindi's largest circulation, Urdu-language Jang held (3/19), "For the United States, the intelligent path to take would be not to get directly involved in the Taiwan conflict, as it is their (China and Taiwan's) own internal and domestic conflict."
NEPAL: "Non-Aggresive Means Are Better"
The new, independent, Nepali-language Himalaya Times (3/17) commented, "Today, the majority of Taiwanese people favors a separate nation, but because of the size and strength of the Chinese military and its aggressive attitude, the belief that Taiwan will unite with China eventually, is evolving.... It is better for China to try to win the confidence of Taiwanese people rather than intimidating them through military exercises."
SRI LANKA: "The Chinese Puzzle"
The independent Island opined (3/21), "China is not without its faults, particularly with regard to human rights and democratic practices. But it is also to be admired in that China has refused to have its arm twisted by any power however great it may be. The present buildup in the Strait of Taiwan is a problem of China alone and one which other powers would be well advised to keep away from."
MIDDLE EAST
ISRAEL: "Gunboat Democracy"
The right-wing Jerusalem Post (3/20) held, "The United States is to be applauded for sharply reminding the secretive mandarins of Beijing that it is willing to stand up to bullies. This commitment has proved highly welcome to the developed and developing states of the region--from Australia to Japan and Korea."
EGYPT: "China-Taiwan"
Opposition Al Wafd (3/21) held, "Most probably, there will be no confrontation between China and Taiwan.... If Washington were to escalate its tone against the Chinese policy toward Taiwan, Taiwan might be motivated to announce separation. But,¡ if Washington were to ease its tone, China may be encouraged...to attack Taiwan. If Clinton were to adopt the Republican demands that the United States must confirm its commitment to defending Taiwan....tension and the cold war climate will return to East Asia and rapprochement may occur between China and Russia."
JORDAN: "Spoils Of War And The Unquenchable Appetite"
Pro-government, influential Al-Ray's columnist Tareq Masarweh (3/21) compared the differences between the Clinton administration and Congress on the Taiwan issue to differences on such Middle Eastern concerns as the status of Jerusalem and said, "What is happening between China and the United States in Taiwan is something very familiar: The billions of Taiwan are like Arab oil: American booty and spoils of war."
OMAN: "The Beginning Of Another Cold War"
The following commentary appeared (3/19) in the semi-independent, English-language Times of Oman: "Attack or no attack, the new Chinese games are aimed at influencing the Taiwanese people who will vote in the first-ever democratic election, scheduled for Saturday.... Many feel the present Chinese show of power highlights the mounting U.S.-Chinese rivalry as both the nuclear powers want to have their say run in the Asia region (sic).... Though a China-U.S. clash is ruled out over the Taiwanese issue, it will be the beginning of another cold war."
LATIN AMERICA AND CARIBBEAN
BOLIVIA: "U.S. Between Cuba And China"
Edgar Millares commented in conservative El Diario (3/18), "Neither Cuba nor China can be dominated by force. Weapons are useful but have their limitations in inter-relationships. The ugly American does not want to be that ugly and seeks ways to operate differently. When they do, they do it effectively, there is no doubt about that. In any case, they have seen themselves in the face of a belligerent confrontation in the world of diplomacy, which means that soon bipolarity will reappear, even though it will be between unequal powers."
PERU: "Another Challenge For U.S. Diplomacy"
Pro-business Gestion (3/17) held, "The China-Taiwan conflict has sent tremors through the barely stable China-U.S. relationship.... This may be another challenge and another chance for U.S. diplomacy, which has already shown its vigor in other parts of the world."
AFRICA
SOUTH AFRICA: "Paper Tiger"
The independent Business Day held (3/19), "The People's Republic of China is rattling its saber as Taiwan completes its transformation to democracy with a presidential election at the weekend. But the intimidation attempt is unlikely to have much impact on the people of Taiwan. A missile attack is unlikely for two reasons. First, China is increasingly reliant on Taiwanese trade and investment. Second, the dispatch of two U.S. aircraft carriers to the area is a signal that Taiwan, though isolated diplomatically, would not be abandoned in the event of an attack. This makes China something of a paper tiger."
NNNN
Product Name: Foreign Media Reaction
Product Code: FM
Keywords: CHINA, PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF; MILITARY EXERCISES; CHINA-TAIWAN RELATIONS; FORCE & TROOP LEVELS; NEWS MEDIA COMMENTARY
Document Type: EXC; RPT
Thematic Codes: 1EA
Target Areas: AF; AR; EA; EU; NE
PDQ Text Link: 431630
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