DATE=12/9/1999
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SYRIA / SUCCESSION (PART 2 OF 3)
NUMBER=5-44938
BYLINE=DAMASCUS
DATELINE=DALE GAVLAK
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
/// EDS: THIS IS THE SECOND OF THREE REPORTS ABOUT
SYRIA. THE THIRD PART DEALS WITH MODERNIZING THE
SYRIAN ECONOMY. ///
INTRO: Western diplomats in Damascus say a chief
topic of conversation in Syria is the question of who
will succeed the country's ailing president, Hafez al
Assad. Dale Gavlak reports from Damascus, where
recent celebrations marked President Assad's 29 years
in office.
TEXT:
/// ACT OF MUSIC ///
At the celebrations in Damascus commemorating
President Assad's anniversary, the thoughts of many
people focused on the uncertainly they feel about the
future.
The man who has dominated Syria for nearly three
decades is 69 years old. And, he is looking
increasingly frail and is reported to be suffering
from prostate cancer. For many years, President Assad
has suffered from heart trouble. And he no longer
holds his famous marathon meetings with foreign
dignitaries.
Ordinary Syrians, like Samir Haddad, say speculation
is rife on the streets about the state of Mr. Assad's
health and who will succeed him.
/// HADDAD ACT ///
It's an issue that raises lots of guessing. But lots
of people expect the President's son, Bashar Assad,
who is gathering support among the people, to follow
up in his father's footsteps.
/// END ACT ///
But diplomats say that even though Mr. Assad is
working shorter hours and despite concerns about his
health, he remains in firm control of the Syrian
government.
Syria's finance minister, Mohamed al Emadi, downplayed
rumors of President Assad's ill health.
/// EMADI ACT ///
He is following up all matters and seeing even
ministers, somebody like me. So all this talk about
his health is really out of question. Thanks be to
God, he is strong. He is healthy.
/// END ACT ///
Some analysts say Mr. Assad's failing health might
prompt him to clear the difficulties of peace with
Israel in order to pave the way for a smooth
succession to power for his son, Bashar.
Basher Assad is a 34-year-old physician who moved to
the political foreground by the death of his elder
brother who had been considered the heir-apparent.
Bashar Assad has worked to bolster his public image by
taking on increased political responsibilities, such
as heading the country's anti-corruption campaign and
making diplomatic trips abroad.
Information Minister Mohamed Salman says succession in
Syria is governed by the constitution. He says that
parties normally nominate the most effective candidate
for the presidency. And he says Bashar Assad is such
a candidate.
/// SALMAN ACT ///
Bashar Assad is somebody who has come to be well-known
all over Syria as an active, competent, and loved
person in Syria.
/// END ACT ///
But analysts say there also is another question -- can
Bashar Assad win the support he needs from Syria's
military and from the country's powerful merchant
class?
There are some potential challengers to Bashar Assad's
claim to the presidency.
Vice President Abd al-Halim Khaddam might be one. Mr.
Khaddam has had substantial government experience.
But analysts say his biggest problem is the fact he is
not part of the Assad family.
Another previously mentioned possibility is President
Assad's brother, Rifaat. But analysts say the Syrian
government's recent crackdown on Rifaat Assad
supporters in the northern town of Latakia might mean
his chance of seriously contesting for the presidency
could be over.
Syrians, like Samir Haddad, say people probably will
be willing to accept Bashar Assad because he carries
the Assad name which represents stability. But they
say he must prove himself, particularly to the heads
of Syria's powerful security organizations. (Signed)
NEB/DG/JWH/ENE/PLM
09-Dec-1999 07:12 AM EDT (09-Dec-1999 1212 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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