• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

China, Russia Veto UN Resolution on Syria

by VOA News July 19, 2012

Russia and China on Thursday vetoed a U.S.-backed U.N. Security Council resolution that would have imposed non-military sanctions on the Syrian government, putting the future of diplomacy in limbo as fighting continues in Syria.

The vote came a day after anti-government rebels bombed a meeting of top Syrian security officials, killing three senior military figures with close ties to President Bashar al-Assad, and as government shelling of neighborhoods in Damascus continued.

Thursday's vote was 11-2, with two abstentions. It was the third time during the Syria crisis that Russia and China have voted against the resolution.

The vote threatens the peace mission of U.N. special envoy Kofi Annan and leaves undecided the future of some 300 peacekeepers in Syria, whose mandate is scheduled to end Friday. U.N. sources said the Security Council might convene later Thursday to extend the mandate.

The Obama administration said Thursday it will work outside the U.N. process to help resolve the Syria crisis.

Fighting continues

The U.N. decision came as fighting between Syrian rebels and government forces continued in the capital.

​​With the faltering international diplomacy and continued fighting, analysts say the coming month of Ramadan could be decisive in the struggle for power between the Syrian regime and its opponents.

American University in Beirut political science professor Hillal Khashan said the events of the past few days have brought the 16-month-old crisis to a tipping point.

“I think Assad's days are numbered," he said. "There are strong indicators that he left Damascus [for] Latakia. And we also know that from the way the Syrian army is deployed in and around Damascus, and the heavy shelling of the city, indicates that Assad's forces regard the city as an enemy city. That is not how to treat your capital.”

Latakia is a coastal city where Assad's fellow Alawites have their stronghold. Khashan says if it is true that Assad has fled there, it would be similar to what Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi did just before he was overthrown -- he retrenched to his tribal area for protection.

Game changer

Lebanese American University political science professor Imad Salamey agreed, calling Wednesday's bomb attack a game changer.

“I think what happened yesterday is an earthquake," Salamey said. "It is a major blow to the regime's security apparatus. This will boost the morale of the opposition forces and will definitely make a turning point in events."

The Muslim holy month of Ramadan, during which the faithful fast from dawn till dusk, will likely begin Friday in much of the Arab world. Salamey said this month could be critical.

“I think the coming days, especially this month of holy Ramadan, will be decisive for Syria. I think we will be witnessing a dramatic situation, most probably the security apparatus in Syria will split and deteriorate fast,” he said.

In addition to Wednesday's attack on President Assad's top security chiefs, there was the defection earlier this month of a senior army general, Manaf Tlass.

Assad loyalty fading

Salamey said this indicates Assad is having difficulty maintaining the loyalty of the Sunni leadership within the military. He said he expects more defections, especially in the coming month.

“I think Syria after Assad will look more like Iraq after Saddam Hussein," he said. "In Iraq, the Kurds created their autonomous region and I think the Alawites will do the same.”

Syria's population is just over 22-million people. The majority is Arab Sunni Muslim, but there are also significant numbers of minorities including Kurds, Armenians, Druze, Christians and the ruling Alawites.

Khashan said he thinks in a post-Assad Syria these groups might set up a federal state.

“I would not be surprised that after the demise of the regime in Syria we will have a federal order in Syria where each of the country's major ethic and religious groups will establish their own enclaves,” he said.

But analyst Salamey sees a different possible scenario.

“I think post-Assad Syria will not be an easy transition," he said. "It will be a difficult one. Eventually I do not think it will be a very fragmenting situation as most have been projecting, simply because it is not possible to divide Syria along sectarian lines demographically.”