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Analysis: In Syria, A Not So 'Great' Game

Council on Foreign Relations

May 15, 2007
Prepared by: Michael Moran

Among the many actors on the margins of last summer’s war in Lebanon, perhaps none gained more than Syria. Without firing a shot, Damascus regained a good deal of the influence it lost after UN investigators implicated its agents in the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri a year before. At the time, the international spotlight prompted street protests that forced Syria to withdraw the twenty thousand troops it had based in the country since the late 1970s. While Syria’s leader, Bashar Assad, still faces the possibility of a UN tribunal and sanctions linked to the assassination, geopolitical realities conspired to render that threat somewhat moot. Assad now finds his nation wooed by many of the same countries which only recently sought to isolate it.

In the early May talks between Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and her Syrian counterpart, Walid al-Moallem, Rice sought help from Damascus in halting the flow of arms and insurgents (NYT) into Iraq. Little came of it, yet few missed the symbolism, or the linkage between Washington’s interests in Iraq and Syria’s in Lebanon (Economist). Saudi Arabia, too, has rediscovered Syria’s attractions. Syria expert Joshua Landis tells CFR.org’s Bernard Gwertzman the Saudis seek to lure Syria away from Iran as part of their regional effort to blunt Tehran’s growing influence. Iran, for its part, puts a slightly different spin on events, claiming to be involved in a “tripartite” effort (IRNA) at national reconciliation in Lebanon. Even in Israel, there is serious talk about new engagement with Syria. Israel’s weakened government, worried about the confidence its poorly conducted Lebanon war bestowed upon Hezbollah, has hinted at a deal on the Golan Heights.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2007 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.