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Background Q&A: Syria: Has Assad Dodged a Bullet?

Council on Foreign Relations

Author: Esther Pan, Staff Writer
April 26, 2006

Introduction

Last fall, the weight of international pressure fell hard on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. After the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, Syria was forced to withdraw its troops from Lebanon. A subsequent UN investigation into the assassination implicated senior intelligence figures of Assad's regime, and sanctions seemed about to be imposed on an uncooperative Damascus. But now, with the United States mired in Iraq and the international community preoccupied with Iran's nuclear threat, Assad appears to have escaped the heat, and is acting tough and consolidating his power.

What is the current political situation in Damascus?

Assad's government is cracking down on dissent, jailing activists, stifling critics, and forbidding opposition figures to travel to international conferences or meet exiles overseas. "The government's in the middle of a fairly intense crackdown," says Mona Yacoubian, a Middle East expert at the United States Institute of Peace. She says it's unclear if the repression is a result of Assad's regime feeling threatened, or conversely, emboldened to act because the international pressure is off his government. Rick Francona, a former U.S. military attaché in Damascus and Middle East military analyst for NBC News, says the attention of world powers is focused elsewhere. "The Iran threat has made life easier for the Syrians and given Bashar the freedom to crack down," Francona says.

What explains the reduction of pressure on Syria?

In the fall of 2005, Assad's regime seemed threatened after it was linked to the assassination of Hariri the previous February in Beirut. Pressure from France, the United States, and other nations forced Syria to withdraw its occupying troops from Lebanon in April 2005 after nearly thirty years. A UN investigation implicated high-level Syrian officials in the Hariri assassination, and the UN Security Council threatened sanctions. "In December [2005], Assad was on the ropes," Francona says. "It wasn't a question of when he would be deposed, but who would depose him."

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2006 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.