Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE= 10/29/2003

TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT

TITLE=SYRIA/US (L-ONLY)

NUMBER=2-309201

BYLINE=JAMES MARTONE

DATELINE=CAIRO

CONTENT=

VOICED AT:

INTRO: Recent U-S moves to isolate Syria are leading Arab analysts to believe Damascus is facing a threat from Israel. As James Martone reports from Cairo, recent developments have regional analysts speculating.

TEXT: U-S legislation to impose sanctions on Syria, the Bush administration's expression of sympathy for Israel's recent attack on a suspected terrorist camp near Damascus, and the U-S president's statement that Syria could be the point of entry for terrorists into Iraq are recent developments that have Arab analysts worried.

They rule out a U-S military attack on Syria, but expect Washington's economic and diplomatic pressure on Damascus to increase.

Mohammed Kamal is a professor at Cairo University.

/// KAMAL ACT ONE ///

I do not think the United States will start a war for regime change in Syria, but it will continue with all kinds of diplomatic and economic pressures, including what the (U-S) House of Representatives passed recently, the Syrian accountability act.

/// END ACT ///

Mr. Kamal says he expects the United States Senate to pass the bill as well and open the door for new U-S sanctions.

Mr. Kamal says Washington's displeasure with Syria might encourage Israel to attack.

/// KAMAL ACT TWO ///

Israel might take advantage of the situation and might attack Syria again, either in the Syrian land, or in Lebanon. So if there is a military attack, I think it will come from Israel, not from the United States.

/// END ACT ///

Mustapha Kamel Al-Sayid, who runs a political research center at Cairo University, agrees and adds that Washington's defense of the Israeli attack earlier this month on a suspected terrorist camp and accusation that Syria is the staging ground for attacks in Iraq add to Damascus's worries.

/// AL-SAYID ACT ///

I think that Syria's leaders are concerned that these statements are only a prelude to a military action undertaken by Israel against Syria, but I think this would not put an end to the problems the United States is having in Iraq, because a foreign military occupation would necessarily, and this has been historically proven, provoke resistance on the part of those who are suffering this military occupation.

/// END ACT ///

Both warn that an act of aggression against Syria now would likely heighten tension in the highly volatile Middle East. (SIGNED)

NEB/JM/MAR/RAE/FC