DATE=6/14/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SYRIA / ARAB SUCCESSION
NUMBER=5-46501
BYLINE=LISA BRYANT
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: With the son of Syria's late President Hafez
al Assad poised to lead Syria, political experts
believe that Bashar al-Assad may set a precedent in
other Arab countries where aging presidents - not
aging monarchs - are in command. From Cairo, Lisa
Bryant reports speculation is settling on a new crop
of possible presidential heirs from Libya to Iraq.
TEXT: During a February leadership reorganization of
Egypt's ruling National Democratic Party, a familiar
name appeared on the new list for the general
secretariat. It was Gamal Mubarak, the 36-year-old
son of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak.
The posting marked a quiet political debut for the
younger Mubarak, a familiar face among Egypt's
business elite. But speculation has been simmering
for years that the President's handsome, affable son
was being groomed for a more prominent career.
Egypt overthrew its monarchy in 1952, and President
Mubarak has ruled out chances that either of his two
sons could succeed him. But since Bashar al-Assad has
emerged as Syria's likely next president, analysts are
taking a second look at Egypt. According to Egyptian
newspaper columnist Mohammed Sid Ahmed, almost
anything seems possible in Arab politics today.
// SID AHMED ACT //
At a time when thinking of such an issue was
unthinkable, it has become quite thinkable now.
The mood has changed, the world has changed, and
this is obviously happening.
// END ACT //
Now into his fourth, six-year term, the 72-year-old
President Mubarak has never appointed a vice-
president. But under the Egyptian constitution, the
speaker of parliament would take over temporarily if
Mr. Mubarak were to die in office. Many experts
expect a smooth leadership transition in Egypt, and
say the next president would likely be selected by the
military.
But that has not stopped the Egyptian press from
speculating on the political future of Gamal Mubarak.
The president's younger son is a graduate of the
American University in Cairo, and a spokesman for an
Egyptian-American economic advisory group.
// OPT // Last year, Egyptian newspapers reported
that the younger Mubarak might head a new political
party, representing business interests. Although the
party never materialized, reports this year predict he
may run for parliament.
Prominent Egyptian businessman Ahmed Zayat is an
acquaintance of Gamal Mubarak. He says Egypt is not a
monarchical system, and that Mr. Mubarak's name would
count against him. Nonetheless, Mr. Zayat believes
the President's son would make a great leader.
// ZAYAT OPT ACT //
Should his name be floated around, he is a
phenomenal candidate. He would have tremendous
support from people, because he is very well
liked in Egypt.
// END ACT //
But international relations professor Tim Sullivan,
from the American University in Cairo, says Gamal
Mubarak will have to earn his political credentials.
// SULLIVAN OPT ACT ///
He is a very bright, very articulate young man,
but he has not, up till now, been involved in
politics in any overt way. So he would have to
run for parliament, he would have to be elected.
He would have to then appear in parliament and
do all the things. He would have to be involved
in politics and be a public figure in his own
right.
// END ACT //
/// END OPT ///
Experts say father-to-son leadership successions -
like the one that Syria faces - seem more likely in
other Arab republics.
In Iraq, President Saddam Hussein's two sons are
reportedly jousting for the title of heir-apparent.
Libyan leader Muammar Gadafi has never designated a
successor, but Mr. Gadafi's two sons have been eyed as
likely candidates. Middle East experts say Yemen also
offers the ingredients to become another political
dynasty.
Such scenarios were unthinkable half a century ago,
when coups and nationalist movements swept a new Arab
generation into power. Monarchies in Libya, Egypt,
and Yemen were toppled. Leaders like Libya's Muammar
Gadafi and Iraq's Saddam Hussein earned their
political credentials as socialists. Other leaders,
like Egypt's Hosni Mubarak, rose from the ranks of
military-dominated governments.
But it is by no means certain that presidential sons
from these countries may now inherit leadership
positions. In fact, Tim Sullivan, of the American
University in Cairo, says it is not likely that other
Arab republics will experience the smooth power
transition that so far appears to be taking place in
Syria.
// SULLIVAN ACT //
As of right now, I think there would be a
struggle. If there was a snap of the fingers
and something happens - the proverbial banana
peel - I think you would see a struggle in
Libya, you would see a struggle in Yemen, I
think you would see a struggle in Iraq. And I
think that these struggles might well take place
in the street as well as other places.
// END ACT //
Mr. Sullivan says many Syrians may consider political
continuity through Bashar al-Assad to be a good thing.
But elsewhere in the Arab world, citizens may be
looking for new political candidates to lead their
countries. (SIGNED)
NEB/LB/GE/RAE
14-Jun-2000 13:42 PM EDT (14-Jun-2000 1742 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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