DATE=6/12/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=ISRAEL'S VIEW OF THE CHANGES IN SYRIA
NUMBER=5-46484
BYLINE=MEREDITH BUEL
DATELINE=JERUSALEM
CONTENT=
VOICE AT:
INTRO: Israeli analysts are predicting a relatively
smooth transition of power in Syria, but say it is
not yet clear if Bashar al-Assad, the son of the late
President Hafez al-Assad, will be able to hold onto
the power he is inheriting from his father. V-O-A's
Meredith Buel reports, analysts also are expressing
cautious optimism that the new government in Damascus
will be more flexible during negotiations on the
Middle East peace process.
TEXT: Israeli analysts say there is virtually no
doubt Bashar al-Assad will follow in his late father's
footsteps and become the new president of Syria.
They say Hafez al-Assad's son has been groomed for the
post for years. They point out the 34-year-old Bashar
is more modern in style and more western in thought
than his father, who ruled Syria with an iron hand for
30-years.
King Abdullah of Jordan says he and Bashar al-Assad
represent a new generation of Arab leaders who are
part of the "Internet generation."
Analysts say the late president's son has a reputation
for honesty and modesty.
Tel Aviv University professor Eyal Zisser, who is
considered an expert on Syria, says Basher al-Assad
must not only inherit his father's power, but also
his "killer instinct" to crush any opposition.
/// ZISSER ACT ONE ///
It is not enough to know the Internet. You
need to show that you are strong, that you are a
leader, and you need to crush in the first
moment any signs of opposition, resentment, or
independence. If -- and this is the problem --
if he is proven to be a weak leader, if he will
show the first sign of weakness, this will be
his end.
/// END ACT ///
Prime Minister Ehud Barak says the death of President
Assad marks the end of an era, and Israel now faces a
new Middle East. Mr. Barak says Israel will continue
to work for a peace agreement with the new leadership
in Damascus.
A member of the Israeli opposition Likud Party, Uzi
Landau, says the region has entered a period of
uncertainty.
/// LANDAU ACT ///
We now have to see what will happen with Bashar
al-Assad, whether he really is going to be the
future leader of Syria. How long will it take
him to consolidate his leadership and his power
over Syria? All that still involves quite an
amount of uncertainty.
/// END ACT ///
Prime Minister Barak is expressing hope the Israeli-
Lebanese border will remain quiet after last month's
withdrawal of Israeli soldiers from south Lebanon.
Syria maintains 35-thousand troops in Lebanon and is
considered the main power broker in that country.
Analyst Yossi Olmert says a critical question is
whether Bashar al-Assad can control Lebanese guerrilla
groups, like Hezbollah, which in the past have fought
against Israel.
/// OLMERT ACT ///
That remains to be seen, whether Bashar will be
able to exert his authority and the authority of
Syria over all kinds of splinter groups in
Lebanon -- even groups like the Hezbollah, or
other smaller groups. [It remains to be seen]
that Bashar will be authoritative enough to make
sure the Lebanese government will not take an
independent course of action, because we know
the Lebanese are being tempted to do it. They
really want to do something else. They do not
want to continue being subjugated by the
Syrians. That remains to be seen, and for me,
Lebanon is the real missing element in all this.
/// END ACT ///
President Hafez al-Assad died on the exact anniversary
of the date Israel captured the Golan Heights from
Syria during the 1967 Middle East war.
Peace talks between Israel and Syria broke down last
January, when Damascus demanded a complete Israeli
withdrawal from the Golan, including a narrow piece of
land along the Sea of Galilee.
The Galilee is an important source of drinking water
for Israelis. If there is to be a withdrawal from the
Golan, Prime Minister Barqak says, Israel must hold a
security zone between the lake and the Syrian border.
In Israel's view, this is the only major issue
blocking a peace agreement.
Tel Aviv University professor Eyal Zisser says if
Bashar al-Assad shows more flexibility than his
father, a peace treaty could be negotiated quickly
between Israel and Syria.
/// ZISSER ACT TWO ///
Yes, we must say, we must admit [that] the
Israeli public at large, [and] of course the
Israeli government, expects Bashar to be more
flexible on the territorial issue. Yes, no
doubt about it. Now this is a great moment for
the Syrians as well, great hope for change and
reforms inside Syria. This is also a moment of
great hope for the people of Israel, for the
Israelis who want to seek a peace settlement
with Syria.
/// END ACT ///
Analysts say Bashar al-Assad is not likely to make
any peace moves quickly, since his first priority will
be to secure his power base in Damascus.
Still, Israel is already sending significant signals
that once the transition of power is complete, there
is renewed hope for successful peace negotiations with
its Syrian neighbor. (Signed)
NEB/MB/JWH/WTW
12-Jun-2000 17:57 PM EDT (12-Jun-2000 2157 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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