DATE=6/11/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=SYRIA FUTURE
NUMBER=5-46480
BYLINE=LISA BRYANT
DATELINE=CAIRO
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: After thirty years of relative stability under
the late Hafez al-Assad, Syria now moves into a new
and uncertain era. Even if his son Bashar assumes
power -- as his father apparently wished -- Arab
analysts see troubled times ahead for Syria and for
the Middle East peace. From Cairo, Lisa Bryant
reports.
TEXT: Little is known about Bashar Assad, President
Assad's 34-year-old son. The man who trained and
practiced as an eye doctor in England, suddenly found
himself being groomed for the presidency in 1994, when
his older brother, Basil, died in a car crash. Like
his father, Bashar Assad is a member of Syria's
Alawite minority.
In recent months, the younger Assad has been given
increasing political responsibility. He was reportedly
behind recent changes in Syrian finance laws and a
campaign to clean up political corruption. The anti-
corruption sweep most recently targeted a former
Syrian prime minister who reportedly committed suicide
while under investigation.
Now Mr. Assad has been nominated for president by the
Baath Party leadership. Syria's parliament is
expected to vote on his candidacy later this month.
But Egyptian scholar Mohammed El Sayed Said is among
several Arab analysts who believe a possible
leadership transition in Syria, from father to son,
will not go so smoothly.
/// SAID ACT ///
The old guard has generally objected to this,
given their own ambitions for power on the one
hand, and given the fact that this is a Republic
in the last instance -- not a monarchy. And
certainly, many will feel that the imposition is
a great step backward toward the monarchical
system, which Syrians have freed themselves from
a long time ago.
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Said and other political experts believe that even
if Bashar Assad becomes Syria's next president, he
will have to face a number of tests. He will have to
unify the Assad family - including President Assad's
brother and one-time rival - behind him. The younger
Assad will also have to win the support of Syria's
Alawites, along with the country's military and
security branches.
Also unclear is the fate of Middle East peace
negotiations. Peace talks between Syria and Israel
were suspended in January, after President Assad held
out for Israel's full withdrawal from the Golan
Heights.
President Clinton had been hoping to seal a Middle
East peace agreement before leaving office. But
Mohammed Sid Ahmed, a columnist for Egypt's leading Al
Ahram newspaper, says the next Syrian leader is likely
to first focus on domestic matters.
/// SID AHMED ACT ///
There can be a power struggle ahead and I think
that's why Syria will be totally devoted to the
internal situation for at least for the few
weeks - (a time when President) Clinton is still
able to do something. Which means that this
probably undermines definitely the assumption
that a peace arrangement in the Middle East
could be achieved under Clinton.
/// END ACT ///
But some scholars also hope that a new leader in Syria
will inject momentum into the peace process. Tahsin
Bashir, who served as spokesman to the late Egyptian
President Anwar Sadat, says the future of Syrian-
Israeli peace talks also depends on Israel's next
move.
/// BASHIR ACT ///
The test of what Syria will do in the peace
process will depend more on Israel. If Israel is
generous and willing to offer Bashar a better
deal than the meticulous, stringent conditions
they asked his father to do, he will be able to
reach an accommodation and a settlement with
Syria.
/// END ACT ///
If Bashar Assad comes to power, Syria will follow the
footsteps of Jordan and Morocco where, in the past
year and a half, young, Western-educated sons have
assumed power. The leadership transitions in both
countries appear to have been remarkably smooth. The
new young monarchs have not strayed far from the
political paths set by their fathers.
Several Arab scholars say they do not expect immediate
political changes in Syria either, if Bashar Assad
becomes president. But, they and others are hoping the
country's next leader will ultimately craft a more
modern and less repressive political system than the
one under President Assad. (Signed)
NEB/EB/DW/KL
11-Jun-2000 15:00 PM EDT (11-Jun-2000 1900 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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