Belgrade on Barrel of Uranium
by Dejan Anastasijevic
Belgrade Vreme , 15 March 1997 pp 23-25
Twelve kilometers from Terazije, barrels of highly
radioactive waste are rusting away. The International
Atomic Energy Agency has declared a state of
nuclear emergency.
In the town of Vinca, just outside Belgrade, there is a
nuclear institute of the same name, and at that institute,
besides an experimental reactor which has not been in
operation for years, there is a basin in which spent nuclear
fuel has been dumped since the early 1960s. Aluminum barrels
containing several hundred kilograms of a deadly mix of
uranium, strontium, plutonium, and host of other radioactive
products from chain reactions have long since begun to rust.
If nothing is done very quickly, the barrels will begin
leaking and cause serious radioactive pollution. In the
worst-case scenario, there could even be an explosion. The
federal government must allocate around $100,000 in order to
clean up the site, but it is extremely uncertain whether
that money will be found.
Talk of the radioactive waste in Vinca began to emerge
last month with the publication of a series of articles in
the "Nuclear Fuel" bulletin, which is published by the U.S.
scientific journal Nucleonic Week. In an article entitled
"Vinca Demands Removal of Highly Enriched Uranium Because of
Increasing Unrest in Serbia," it is claimed that the
institute asked the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA) to remove from Yugoslavia 40 kilograms of so-called
fresh nuclear fuel for a reactor that was imported from
Russia nearly 20 years ago. According to journalist Mark
Hibbs, that request is linked to the unstable situation in
Serbia and the alleged fear of the institute's leadership
that the fuel in question, 80 percent of which consists of
uranium 235, could fall into the hands of "political
desperados," who could use it for terrorist purposes. It is
also claimed that the late Josip Broz wanted to make
Yugoslavia capable of producing nuclear weapons, and also
quoted are the writings of the Croatian press, which on
several occasions over the last few years has accused Serbia
of secretly splitting plutonium in Vinca for the purpose of
developing its own nuclear arsenal. Similar theories, with
insignificant variations, were also put forward by the same
journalist in several subsequent articles.
Nuclear Fuel is a low-circulation journal, but
understandably the articles from it have aroused quite a bit
of concern in local scientific circles. Additional worries
arose with the publication of Dragan Jovanovic's article
"Hiroshima Near Belgrade," published in the weekly NIN on 7
March of this year, which was basically an edited version of
Mark Hibbs's article. However, the truth about what is going
on in Vinca is incomparably more complex than these articles
have made it out to be, and it has less to do with
desperados, secret Serbian atomic programs, and a nuclear
mafia than with domestic and international bureaucratic
skirmishes, the consequences of which, even though there is
no element of a conspiracy, could easily be catastrophic for
all of us.
Bomb Recipe
At the Nuclear Institute in Vinca, they willingly
confirmed to us that the 40 kilograms of highly enriched
uranium fuel in question, packed in aluminum trunks, is
indeed located there, but they vehemently deny that they
have asked anyone to remove it from the country. "This is
fuel that we imported for the needs of our experimental
reactor and that has not been used thus far," Dr. Miroslav
Kopecni, the director of the institute, tells Vreme. Kopecni
emphasizes that this "fresh" fuel does not constitute an
ecological risk, which the IAEA experts who perform monthly
inspections could also confirm. Admittedly, the experts of
that international supervisory body headquartered in Vienna
have objected to the physical security arrangements at the
Vinca institute, which are in fact below international
standards and the only visible signs of which are one
policeman guarding the gate at the entrance and a barbed-
wire fence. Recently, Kopecni and his associates say, the
IAEA approved some funding to raise that security to a
higher level, and special cameras have also been purchased
to continuously take pictures of the warehouse. The reason
why the IAEA is especially interested in this uranium
actually has little to do with the environment, but rather
with the concern of some countries that it could be used to
produce a bomb. "They come to check the seals and verify
that no one has touched the trunks," say Kopecni, explaining
that highly enriched uranium, theoretically speaking, is
very well suited for the production of various things,
including bombs. "Unlike certain other nuclear materials,
which demand a very complex technology for handling, you can
almost work with this kind of uranium at your kitchen
table," he adds. Given the fact that for years Yugoslavia
enjoyed a good reputation at the IAEA, up until 1991
inspections were performed every three months, but when the
country began to break up monitoring was tightened for
understandable reasons. Despite that, and the fact that
Yugoslavia has formally "dropped out" of the IAEA since it
is not a member of the United Nations, relations between the
Vinca institute and that international agency have remained
extremely correct all along. This was also confirmed to us
in an informal talk with representatives of the agency in
Vienna, where we were told that there is no basis whatsoever
for believing that anyone in Belgrade is dreaming about a
bomb.
As regards the program to split plutonium (which could
be the first step in producing a bomb), work was in fact
done in Vinca in the 1970s to produce that substance. "We
produced only a few grams for experimental purposes, and we
did not make any secret of that," they say at the institute,
reminding us that they cooperated closely on this program
with kindred institutes in Norway and the Czech Republic,
and that the results of the experiments were published on
the front pages of daily newspapers. Beginning in the late
1970s, however, all programs of that type were drastically
cut and never restarted, while 10 years later the larger of
the two reactors was shut down completely, because it no
longer satisfied the tightened international safety
criteria. The so-called Reactor B, which is still in
operation, has several thousand times less power, in the
order of magnitude of several watts.
Whose Uranium Is It?
Director Kopecni feels that the articles in Nuclear
Fuel are part of a campaign aimed at removing the 40
kilograms of uranium in question from Yugoslavia, and that
behind that campaign are nuclear powers who simply do not
like the idea of that potentially dangerous substance being
anywhere outside their territory. "This is strategic
material, and the Americans, as part of the RETIR program,
have taken steps to get all fuel that they sold to third
countries back to the United States, by way of the IAEA.
However, the highly enriched uranium in Vinca is of Russian
origin, we paid for it properly, and it is without a doubt
ours." They say the same thing in Vienna as well. "Vinca has
no obligation to return that uranium to Russia, even though
certain countries would like that very much," says Vreme's
source at the IAEA, a highly respected foreign expert who is
well acquainted with the situation in Vinca and whose
"service regulations" strictly forbid him from issuing
official statements. Of course, one question that arises is
why the institute even needs that highly enriched uranium,
given the fact that the main reactor is not in operation and
that with a certain amount of imagination it is certainly
conceivable that in some extraordinary situation it could
fall into the hands of some "desperado." "In fact, we would
have nothing against that uranium being returned to Russia,
but only under the condition that we receive in exchange a
corresponding quantity of low-enriched uranium. Such uranium
can also be used as fuel, although it is not considered a
strategic material. However, we are firmly opposed to
something that is ours being taken away from us to serve the
major powers' interests." This stance is called "extremely
reasonable" in Vienna, where it is noted that this would in
fact be the best solution.
Director Kopecni still hopes that with a little
investment the main reactor could be put back into
operation. "This situation, with a reactor that has been
idle for more than 10 years with all the fuel in its core,
is unacceptable, because the auxiliary parts of the system
are failing. It is estimated that putting it into operation
would be cheaper than conservation, and Russia and China are
also interested in doing this in conjunction with our
experts. Indeed, China has a reactor that is almost
identical to ours, which they renovated and increased its
power, and which has been used successfully for several
years now." However, $2 to $4 million is needed to get the
reactor running, a sum that this country can only dream
about for now. According to Kopecni, the most expensive
solution would be to completely dismantle the reactor and
turn Vinca into what it was before 1959--an ordinary
wasteland. Aside from that, he says, it would have serious
consequences for existing scientific programs which are
somehow being kept going through diligent efforts.
Killer Bubble
Thus ends the tale of the 40 kilograms of uranium
mentioned in Nuclear Fuel and begins another much more
ominous tale, about the waste that collected in Vinca during
the 30 years of operation by Reactor A. This is the spent
fuel in the basin that was mentioned at the beginning of
this article. Specifically, the burning of uranium in a
reactor generates a host of very radioactive substances
whose half-life (i.e., the time in which radioactivity is
reduced by one-half) can be as much as several million
years. Thirty years ago, the basin next to the reactor was
intended to be a temporary disposal site, and it has
remained that to this day. Initially the spent fuel was
stored in stainless steel pipes, but over time the space ran
out, so that some of it was repackaged in aluminum barrels.
Aluminum, like the rubber gaskets with which the barrels are
sealed, is subject to corrosion, and that process is moving
along quickly, judging from photographs taken with an
underwater camera and the results of chemical-radiological
analyses of water from the basin. To make matters worse, one
of the byproducts of this waste is hydrogen gas, which
threatens to cause the aluminum canisters to explode because
of pressure on the their interior walls. If that were to
happen, a radioactive bubble would rise up out of the basin
which, admittedly, would not kill anyone, but would cause
serious pollution. Judging from some calculations, the
quantity of hydrogen released thus far should have already
caused an explosion, or such a thing could happen any day
now. In Vinca they say that the only reason why this has not
happened is that the barrels have by all indications already
cracked, so that the excess hydrogen is leaking into the
basin anyway. The aforementioned IAEA expert tells Vreme
this: "The situation is potentially very serious. Those
barrels have been rusting for 30 years now and are obviously
under pressure. A bubble could result in aerosol radioactive
pollution which would not kill anyone, at least not
immediately, but which would nevertheless be quite serious."
To make things worse, a radioactive bubble is one of
the relatively innocuous outcomes of the current situation.
If the uranium in the barrels itself begins to rust, the
result will be uranium hydride, which is probably the most
flammable substance that exists. The famous white
phosphorus, which is used to manufacture incendiary and
napalm bombs, is less dangerous than this compound. "All
that uranium hydride needs is to come into contact with only
a few molecules of oxygen, and it will ignite, even if it is
under water." Such a fire, within a basin full of
radioactive waste, could burn for days, and the consequences
would be unforeseeable.
Mushroom Cloud Over Belgrade
The third and most horrifying possibility is also the
least likely one. "If the geometry of the nuclear fuel in
the basin were to change, say, as a result of the
simultaneous rupture of several barrels, that change could
bring about a critical situation," says our source in
Vienna. That statement will send chills down the spine of
anyone who remembers high school physics: With uranium,
critical mass is the state that immediately precedes a
nuclear reaction, and an uncontrolled nuclear reaction is
what happens when an atomic bomb is activated. As
consolation, it would not be the exact kind of explosion
that the world saw at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. However, our
source says that the possibility of this nightmare scenario
actually happening is "very, very small." "How small, in
percents or per milles?" we asked. "That is impossible to
estimate" was his response.
Atomic Confluence
All of this has long been common knowledge in Vinca, as
well as in the federal government, which by law should see
to it that the probability of such an outcome is exactly
zero. "The Serbs did not invent corrosion," says Kopecni,
citing several examples from around the world where a
similar problem has been encountered. "We have wanted to
solve this for some time. There exists a complete Russian
project for repackaging the fuel and cleaning the water in
the basin." The problem, as usual, is with money: Such a job
costs around $300,000. Like other scientific institutions,
the institute does not have that money. Moreover, for years
it has been unclear whether Vinca is the responsibility of
Serbia or Yugoslavia (former and present-day). After a long
and persistent effort, experts from the institute finally
succeeded last year in bringing about the creation of a
Federal Commission for Nuclear Energy, headed by Nikola
Sainovic, but that commission rarely meets--after all, we
would remind our readers, in recent months Sainovic has been
much more concerned with Nis than with Vinca. Things are not
much better on the international scene: Although the IAEA
should have come to the rescue long ago, the fact that
Yugoslavia is not a member of the United Nations (of which
the IAEA is a part) has made it formally impossible to
access funds, which are under the control of the major
powers. "The matter made it to the desk of the U.S.
secretary of state," says our source in Vienna, "but the
message from there was that there can be no exceptions."
Ultimately the problem has been solved by having the IAEA
declare the situation in Vinca a "nuclear emergency." There
are special funds for such cases, so in that context around
half of the money that is needed was approved. It is
interesting that the articles in Nuclear Fuel devote
significantly less attention to this waste and its status
than to those 40 kilograms of "fresh" uranium, while there
is no mention whatsoever of the emergency.
It appears that the second half would have to be
approved by the federal government, but in view of the
situation that will be much more difficult. The situation of
scientific institutions in Yugoslavia, and of Vinca in
particular, deserves to be the subject of a separate
article, as does the problem of the so-called cemetery,
i.e., the temporary storage facility for low-radioactive
waste which under the current law clearly should not be
where it is. The government (in fact the republican one, and
thus its Ministry of Education) has been taking a close look
at Vinca lately, but within the context of the plans to get
rid of directors of scientific institutions who closed ranks
behind the "illegal" Acting Rector Kuburovic. In the
meantime, the radioactivity of the water in the basin is
rising by a factor of two to three every few months. People
of Belgrade, sleep peacefully, because your health is in the
hands of Nikola Sainovic and Madeleine Albright.
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