09 December 2002
Despite Terrorism, Analyst Discounts "Right Wing" Coup in South Africa
(Retired SANDF Col. Henri Boshoff speaks at CSIS forum) (670)
By Jim Fisher-Thompson
Washington File Staff Writer
Washington -- "Extreme right wingers" in South Africa may have a "well
thought out plan," including terrorism, to return their country to
white-minority rule, but it is unlikely they can succeed against the
multi-racial democracy most South Africans, both black and white, now
willingly support, says visiting defense scholar Henri Boshoff.
Boshoff, a recently retired colonel who served in the South African
military for 22 years, is an analyst for South Africa's Institute for
Security Studies (ISS). While here to attend the annual meeting of the
scholarly African Studies Association (ASA), he briefed Africanists at
the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) on December
6 about the chances of a white-led coup in his homeland.
The recent spate of bombings in predominantly black neighborhoods
demonstrates the "capacity of the extreme right wing" to commit
violence, Boshoff said. But their ability "to execute a plan" to take
over the government, while "not laughable" is "virtually impossible,"
he asserted, because of the lack of support from the larger white
community and institutions like the nation's armed forces.
In South Africa, he said, "What we see now is a whole idea of the
restoration of the Boer Republic coming to the fore" among "a small
group of hardcore radicals," many of whom "see themselves as God's
chosen people.and believe the Black Man has no soul." Their political
ideology harkens back to the early 20th century, he explained, when
the Boer republics of the Orange Free State and the Transvaal believed
"self-determination of the white race" meant political
disenfranchisement of Blacks.
Many of those ideas are now enshrined in a movement, called the
"Boeremag" [literally farmers' force], Boshoff said, whose adherents
are alleged to have murdered a number of blacks recently. Eighteen
whites, among them middle class professionals, have been arrested and
charged with complicity in the crimes. Weapons caches have also been
uncovered, he added.
Boshoff cited a Boeremag plan, called "Document 12," which is a guide
for "a counter-military offensive" that spells out several tactical
phases leading to the eventual overthrow of South Africa's
democratically-elected government. It even includes use of the "Odal
Rune," an Aryan sign that the coup plotters would print up and stick
on government vehicles they seized for identification once the coup
began.
While "well thought out," Boshoff said he believed Boeremag's plan
would fail because of a number of "preconditions that are absent" for
mounting a successful coup. "Firstly, they haven't got a high level of
political support" among whites; even "people affiliated with the
right wing say they do not want to be associated" with Boeremag's
extreme views but "want to work within the political system."
On a military level, Boeremag "will also not be able to mobilize
massively," the analyst said, "because they do not have support within
the SANDF [South African National Defense Forces]. Although three
SANDF members were arrested ... there is no support within the SANDF
officer corps."
In addition, he pointed out, "If they [Boeremag] want to overthrow the
government they must secure control of strategic installations and
that is virtually impossible, especially with their low force-to-space
ratio. [In South Africa] Political power is now very much
decentralized. There is a very sophisticated infrastructure and
effective security forces, so it is impossible for them to do that."
The real danger, Boshoff said, is "the small-level groups or cells
that have access to weapons and who can operate on a tactical, local
level to destabilize" society with acts of violence. To counter them
the security forces must take "an integrated ... proactive approach"
that uses local police forces, employing intelligence with real
information sharing.
As for the public, Boshoff said the message that the security forces
should put out is: "We can deal with it [Boeremag violence]. We can
discourage it. But we cannot end it completely, anymore that we can
end other types of non-political violence." Ultimately, what will
contain the spread of poison from "small groups of isolated fanatics
is good intelligence work and law enforcement" based on the public's
cooperation.
(The Washington File is a product of the Office of International
Information Programs, U.S. Department of State. Web site:
http://usinfo.state.gov)
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