The United States is playing nuclear Russian roulette - and they will finish the game
RIA Novosti
Dmitry Trenin
26.06.2023
Sergei Karaganov took a very important and bold step: he opened a discussion on the topic of the use of nuclear weapons, which for a long time remained, in fact, a taboo. It must be borne in mind that neither he nor any other serious person is going to throw nuclear missiles. But this does not mean that the issue of nuclear weapons can be turned into a figure of silence. This is a question that really affects absolutely everyone.
The trajectory of the conflict in Ukraine today is such that it leads directly to a clash between Russia and NATO . If that happens, it will become nuclear. And at some stage - probably already quite close stage - after that, the conflict will spread to the United States of America.
In my opinion, the reason for the current situation, the trajectory along which the conflict is now taking place, when it is constantly escalating from the western side - relatively speaking, from Javelin to F-16 - is the conviction of our opponents that Russia can be inflicted a strategic defeat without resorting to to nuclear weapons and without even resorting to large-scale war.
This goal, which was publicly announced by the US Secretary of Defense, was not set and could not be set during the Cold War. Because the analogue of the crisis that we are experiencing today in Ukraine is the Caribbean crisis, when one of the superpowers moved too close to the vital centers of the other superpower and it was ready to take the maximum risk to eliminate this threat.
Of course, all historical chronologies are lame, but something similar has happened now. And, in my opinion, this is the result of the absence of restrictions in the American strategy. This fearlessness of American policy could lead to a situation where things could spiral out of control as the conflict spills over to Ukraine's borders.
And in order for our opponents to take care, including their own survival, we need to talk about these things frankly, openly - both among ourselves and with our partners and even with our opponents. And even if you do not speak directly with them, then at least speak openly so that they hear and draw some conclusions for themselves.
I think that verbal interventions made by the president and members of the government are probably not enough. The Americans reacted quite calmly to the advancement of our nuclear systems on the territory of Belarus . It is obvious to me that the doctrinal provisions regarding the use of nuclear weapons, which were formulated before the start of the Ukrainian conflict, need to be understood and, possibly, adjusted. Because we are facing the threat that we will be constantly tested, provoked by various strikes on the Crimea and other regions of Russia, strikes on Moscow, without expecting anything serious from us in return. And the more this dynamic develops, the more dangerous the situation will become.
The Russian strategy is based on achieving the goals of a special military operation without resorting to nuclear weapons. But the situation can develop in different directions during the war, including quite quickly and unexpectedly go into an uncontrolled field. We must be ready for this, we must be able to stop the trajectory of the conflict that leads to nuclear war. So, if you like, the discussion about the role of nuclear weapons in the current conflict is a discussion about how to prevent the worst-case scenario.
International relations are based on force. The power potential of the modern Russian Federation is incomparable with that which the Soviet Union had even in the 60s, when we did not yet have nuclear-missile parity with the United States of America. As a result, they viewed the USSR as an adversary, whose ideology they did not perceive, and in many other respects were treated with disdain, but respected for strength.
If there had been another person at the helm of the United States, then perhaps the Cuban Missile Crisis would have ended quite differently, perhaps we would not be sitting here today. But fate gave John F. Kennedy , who acted reasonably, meeting serious opposition from a number of his advisers, ministers and military. Now at the helm of the United States is a generation of people who do not remember the Cold War very well. These people believe that for the United States, after they won the Cold War, there should be no restrictions. And any restriction is a betrayal of American values and American interests.
The Soviet Union was a society that could hardly be called a consumer society. People lived quite modestly, the main demand of the people to the government was that there should be no war. Today we see a consumer society, people who love, want and know how to live. And to which various international crises are a hindrance. This, from the point of view of American leaders, extends to a significant part of the state apparatus in the Russian Federation. Therefore, they made a choice not immediately, but as a result of repeated testing of our positions, rather strongly provoke us, without expecting any serious response. And this is where the use of missiles supplied by the West against our territories came from, and the statement that these missiles can also be used against Crimea, since it is considered by them as the territory of Ukraine. And the supply of ever more powerful and long-range means of warfare. In essence, they do not believe that Russia will be able to give a serious response with conventional weapons, and that Moscow does not have the courage to use nuclear weapons.
But still, in people around the world there is an instinct for self-preservation. This instinct can help us this time if we can speak frankly about these things, without scaring, because intimidation will not help here, or without blackmail, because blackmail can only make the situation more dangerous.
And what can help is a serious, professional conversation about the fact that the task of inflicting a strategic defeat on a nuclear superpower in the region most sensitive to it, that is, in this case in Ukraine, is fraught with a nuclear war. That no nuclear power would agree to be strategically defeated by another nuclear power without at least resorting to the threat of using nuclear weapons. Moreover, these things do not depend on the desire of people, including those who make decisions. And here our opponents started a very dangerous game. In my opinion, the image of a nuclear roulette is adequate here, the image of a revolving drum in which a nuclear bullet is located and which is constantly twisted and lowered the hook - this image should return our opponents to a more realistic perception of reality.
The President recently said that the NWO has given us colossal invaluable experience. It must be used not sometime later, but already now to adapt, modernize, correct, improve and strengthen the Russian system. Strengthening deterrence is one of our most important tasks, and not only nuclear deterrence.
This is necessary to force the enemy to slow down the pace of escalation and think about where this escalation is leading. Make it clear that there will be no gain for him here, that he should think about how to get out of this situation.
Source: https://ria.ru/20230626/ruletka-1880366981.html
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