• Military

• WMD Menu                           

• Introduction
• Systems
• Facilities
• Agencies
• Operations
• Countries
• Hot Documents
• News
• Reports
• Policy
• Budget
• Congress
• Links

• Intelligence
• Homeland Security
• Space

Analysis: Russia's Arms Control Ripples

Council on Foreign Relations

August 26, 2008
Author: Greg Bruno

Reverberations from Russia's conflict with Georgia extend in many directions, highlighting the extent of Russian power in its own region and beyond (BBC). In the event of a further chilling of ties with the West, Russia's soft-power sticks (NYT) include everything from potential manipulation of energy supplies to limiting NATO security forces' access to Afghanistan through Russia and Central Asia. Western states, for their part, have signaled potential trade moves against Russia and the end to "business as usual." But one potential casualty that causes special worry for some analysts is the suspension of cooperation on nuclear nonproliferation and other arms control efforts.

The Wall Street Journal reported on August 23, the Bush administration's "landmark nuclear-cooperation agreement" with Moscow could be derailed following Russia's moves in Georgia. The deal, which the White House had hoped to finalize in September, aimed to increase U.S.-Russia cooperation on peaceful nuclear technology. But as one U.S. official told the paper, nuclear deals are "no longer business as usual." The Financial Times reported on August 25 that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is expected to call on President Bush to recall the civil nuclear deal with Russia from Congress. "At this point, it's dead," a congressional staffer told the paper.

Pressure to disband or modify arms control agreements and treaties is not new. Russia, which possesses nearly half (CDI) of the world's nuclear weapons, had already suspended (BBC) full participation in the 1990 Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty to protest U.S. plans to build a missile defense system in the Czech Republic and Poland. (U.S. and Polish officials finalized a missile shield deal in mid-August, angering Russia and leading to reports of a potential arms sale between Russia and Syria). arms accords it has viewed as outdated and cumbersome.

Read the rest of this article on the cfr.org website.

Copyright 2008 by the Council on Foreign Relations. This material is republished on GlobalSecurity.org with specific permission from the cfr.org. Reprint and republication queries for this article should be directed to cfr.org.