Russia: Surprise Candidate Could Indicate Putin's Indecision

Russia: Surprise Candidate Could Indicate Putin's Indecision

By Brian Whitmore

September 12, 2007 (RFE/RL) -- The murky politics of Vladimir Putin's Kremlin became even more opaque today as the Russian president named an obscure official, Viktor Zubkov, as prime minister.

The move confounded conventional wisdom that Putin was about to name First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov as prime minister and as Putin's chosen successor as president.

When Fradkov resigned today, analysts predicted Putin would name Ivanov as prime minister. But after accepting Fradkov's resignation, Putin left Moscow for a trip to the Volga region without naming a replacement.

Obscure Candidate

State Duma Speaker Boris Gryzlov then shocked the Russian political elite by announcing that Putin had nominated Viktor Zubkov, the 65-year-old head of the Federal Financial Monitoring Service, as his new prime minister.

Political analysts like Maria Matskevich of the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute of Sociology say they were confounded by the move.

"Only insiders who really know what is going on can answer that question. External commentators cannot explain this. And the insiders will either not give an answer or they will put out some disinformation like they did earlier," Matskevich says.

Indeed, shortly after Fradkov's resignation -- but before Zubkov's nomination was announced -- Kremlin-connected political analysts widely believed to be in the know indicated that Ivanov would be named prime minister.

Sergei Markov, who heads the Institute for Political Studies and has close Kremlin ties, said the new prime minister would likely be a "political appointment." Markov said that Ivanov was "candidate number one" and First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev was "candidate number two."

For the past year, Ivanov and Medvedev have widely been seen as competing to be named Putin's successor -- with Ivanov recently emerging as the consensus frontrunner. The "Vedomosti" daily reported in today's edition that Ivanov would replace Fradkov very soon.

Fradkov and Putin added to the impression that a presidential successor would be named in his place today. The prime minister said he was resigning due to the "approaching significant political events in the country and his own desire to give Russia's president full freedom of decision including staff decisions."

Election Season

Russia is scheduled to hold parliamentary elections in December and a presidential election in March.

And Putin indicated that the changes in the government were related to the elections.

"Perhaps we should all think together how to built a structure of power and governance that better corresponds to the pre- election period and prepares the country for the period after the [December 2007] parliamentary elections and the March 2008 presidential election," Putin said.

Matskevich says that today's developments could be a signal that when it comes to figuring out who will succeed Putin in the Kremlin -- or even if Putin will leave the Kremlin when his term expires next year -- all bets are off.

"It is completely possible that this is a signal that all that we thought was completely certain in terms of how things will develop is mistaken. It is a signal that there is no certainty about how things will develop in Russia," Matskevich says.

Many Kremlin watchers say today's surprise move is a sign that Putin and his inner circle have not settled on a successor.

'Technical President'

Some analysts have also suggested that Zubkov could be part of the so-called "technical president" scenario, in which Putin turns the presidency over to a weak figure temporarily -- and then returns to the Kremlin after a brief hiatus.

The Russian Constitution forbids the president from serving more than three consecutive terms -- but does not forbid Putin from returning to office after another president has been in power.

In Washington, the reaction to news of the political shakeup was muted. White House spokesman Tony Snow told reporters that the Bush administration considers the matter "internal Russian politics."

For Ivanov, it was business as usual. "Governments resign sooner or later in any democratic country," he said. "It so happened that [the Russian government resigned] today. The cabinet that was lead by Mikhail Fradkov, the cabinet in which I worked, has done a lot despite certain shortcomings and difficulties."

Paul Quinn-Judge, a Russia analyst and former Moscow correspondent for "Time" magazine, says however, that today's move looks like an indication that Putin may be panicking as the time for him to hand over the keys to the Kremlin approaches.

"The fact that Putin comes up with something unexpected is not necessarily a sign of great cunning and political acumen. It could well be a sign that the man is as anxious and indecisive and perhaps even panicky as some analysts -- myself included -- would suspect," Quinn-Judge says.

Quinn-Judge adds that Putin's reputation as a skilled political operator pulling all the strings is greatly exaggerated. And as his second term draws to a close, the Russian president could be becoming increasingly isolated and more prone to irrational decisions.

"Bottom line, there is only one thing we're sure of: Putin wants to keep control. Whether he keeps control as president or behind the scenes as the puppet master, we don't know. I think he is honest enough about himself to realize that he is not that good as a puppet master. Some people might say he is more a puppet than a puppet master," Quinn-Judge says.

Putin has said repeatedly that he will not attempt to change the Russian Constitution and seek a third term. But many of his closest political allies -- most notably Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov -- have continuously suggested that he remain in office.

Quinn-Judge says that despite Putin's strenuous protestations to the contrary, he may indeed be planning to remain in the Kremlin.

"I look with interest at the way that he has not told people who are abjectly obedient to him not to mention third terms. This leads me to believe that he doesn't want to squash the whole subject until he has decided one way or the other. And one would have to assume that he hasn't decided one way or the other," Quinn-Judge says.

But for now, Russia will almost certainly have Zubkov as prime minister.

Zubkov ran state farms in the Leningrad Oblast. In the 1990s he worked in the St. Petersburg city government when Putin was deputy mayor.

The State Duma is scheduled to vote on Zubkov's confirmation on September 14, one day before his 66th birthday.

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Russia: Surprise Candidate Could Indicate Putin's Indecision