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RUSSIA TO ERADICATE TERROR

RIA Novosti

MOSCOW (RIA Novosti political commentator Arseny Oganesyan) - The death of Aslan Maskhadov, the leader of bandit groups operating in Chechnya and outside its borders, is the greatest achievement of the Russian security structures so far. But his death does not mean a full and unconditional victory in the war on terror in Russia. Yevgeny Kozhokin, director of the Russian Institute of Strategic Studies and member of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, speaks about the consequences of Maskhadov's death and the outlook in the war on terror.

Question: What will be the consequences of Aslan Maskhadov's death?

Answer: Maskhadov's death has radically changed the political situation for the terrorist underground in Chechnya, as he was the only major political figure that served as a political and, to a degree, ideological cover for the terrorists and for devising their schemes in the West and Russia. Nobody can replace him.

They may try to create a new political figure to serve these goals. They will plan terrorist attacks while speaking about human rights and advocating political dialogue, but they need somebody who is not up to his neck in blood for that. They need a person whom all normal people will not see as a political terrorist and criminal who must be punished.

Maskhadov was a criminal too, because he was completely responsible for what went on in Chechnya. He was responsible for all major terrorist attacks because they had been planned to benefit him politically.

Shamil Basayev and other terrorist leaders will have to search for a new figure now.

Today, Russia has won; it does not mean that the situation will improve radically tomorrow, but a victory is a victory. We have won a political victory and partially a military one. From now on, our security services and the army should think about what they can do next to make terrorist attacks and their use for political purposes impossible. This will be a real victory.

Q:Do you foresee a rise in terrorist activity? Will the terrorists try to avenge the death of their leader?

A: I do not think these people are guided by the notion of revenge. They have very practical goals but few would dare to predict their actions without reliable operational information. The point is that their plans and operations largely depend on financing, trained personnel and weapons, which is why it is impossible to predict their plans from the viewpoint of logic. Predictions of Basayev's actions are based on chimeral thinking and not on what he really thinks or plans. In fact, it is impossible to peer into his mind because Basayev is a black genius of terrorism.

Nobody who spent his life in offices and cafes can imagine what Basayev may think. And this is normal, because normal people go to their offices and sit in cafes; one can accept or reject their view. But Basayev is not a normal person.

Q: Can Zakayev become the political successor to Maskhadov? He is rather well promoted in the media and seems to suit the West.

A: There might be attempts to turn Zakayev into a political figure, but he lacks the main element. Maskhadov was elected president of Chechnya at relatively ordinary elections, which everyone, including the Russian federal authorities, recognized. We recognized Maskhadov as the president of Chechnya and dealt with him as such. The terrorists do not have anybody else of this kind. Today Chechnya has a legally elected president [Alu Alkhanov], and he alone can represent Chechnya legitimately. And he is fighting the terrorists.