Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=5/29/03

TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT

TITLE=BUSH / PUTIN / PREVIEW

NUMBER=5-53879

BYLINE=MEREDITH BUEL

DATELINE=WASHINGTON

VOICED AT:

///// MAY BE USED AS AN ALTERNATE WITH BKG5-53880 "RUSSIA SUMMIT PREVIEW". /////

INTRO: President Bush is scheduled to hold talks Sunday with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the first time the two leaders have met since relations were strained over the U-S-led war in Iraq. Some analysts say the meeting will be used to ease tensions about Iraq, while others say the main item on the agenda will be concern about Iran's nuclear program. Washington correspondent Meredith Buel reports.

TEXT: Analysts expect the Bush-Putin talks to be largely symbolic when the two men meet in Mr. Putin's native city of St. Petersburg, which is celebrating its 300th anniversary.

Given the recent disagreements over the war in Iraq they say the meetings will be a combination of repairing bi-lateral relations and focusing on other issues of mutual concern and interest.

Anatol Lieven is a specialist on U-S-Russian relations and was a Russian-based journalist for six years for The Times of London.

Mr. Lieven says both Washington and Moscow have different goals for the talks.

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As far as the Russian administration is concerned it really wants to rebuild relations after the dispute concerning the Iraq war, which, in principle, should not be too difficult to do in itself because the U-S administration recognizes that Russia did not seek out this crisis. It did not really even try to exploit this crisis. It basically just followed most of the rest of Europe and indeed the world and Russian public opinion. Now on the U-S side by far the most important issue I think coming up is that of Russian nuclear trade with Iran, which is rapidly becoming a very important part of the Bush administration's international agenda.

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Andrew Kuchins is the director of the Russian and Eurasian Program at the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He agrees that the transfer of Russian nuclear technology to Iran is likely to top the agenda, now that both sides appear concerned that Tehran may be determined to develop weapons of mass destruction.

/// KUCHINS ACT ///

The United States and the Russian Federation are closer in agreement about the status of the Iranian nuclear program than they were in the past. Which means basically, that the Russians have moved to the U-S position and they are more concerned about the nature of the Iranian nuclear-weapons program because of the revelations over the last six months or so about the centrifuge plant in Natanz and the heavy water plant elsewhere in Iran.

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Russian specialist Anatol Lieven says Mr. Putin and Mr. Bush remain allies in the war against al-Qaida and international terrorism, and that diminishes their desire to hurt each other over other issues.

But he says President Putin is very concerned about the Bush administration's efforts to launch research into creation of small nuclear weapons.

/// LIEVEN ACT 2 ///

The Russians are very worried by these plans now for the development, or at least the research of small nuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons. The Russians remain very unhappy with the missile defense program, although they have now recognized there is nothing they can do to stop it so they would like a piece of the action.

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During their brief conference, Presidents Bush and Putin may exchange ratification documents for what is known as the Moscow Treaty. It calls for a two-thirds cut in the U-S and Russian nuclear arsenals by 2012.

Both houses of the Russian parliament have voted to approve the treaty. The U-S Senate ratified the accord earlier this year. (SIGNED)

NEB/MB/RAE/RH