Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

DATE=05/12/03

TYPE=Focus

NUMBER=8-156

TITLE=U-S-Russia Relations after Iraq

BYLINE=Jeff Lilley

TELEPHONE=202-205-4685

DATELINE=Washington

EDITOR=Victor Morales

INTRO:

President George Bush has said that Russian leader Vladimir Putin is a man he can trust. But on almost every key decision the American President has made on Iraq, Mr. Putin has tried to thwart him. Most recently, the Russian leader is opposing a call by Washington and London to lift U-N sanctions on Iraq in order to speed up the country's recovery. What is behind the Russian leader's stance, and what might the future hold for US-Russian relations? Here with today's Focus is VOA's Jeff Lilley.

TEXT:

At a press conference in late April with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Russian President Putin put his fellow statesman on the spot. On the question of lifting U-N sanctions on Iraq, Mr. Putin distanced himself from London and Washington by insisting that the main reason for going to war in Iraq the status of Baghdad's biological, chemical and nuclear weapons programs had not been dealt with.

///Putin Actuality - In Russian with voice over///

Sanctions were imposed on Iraq on the basis of suspicions that it held weapons of mass destruction. Sanctions can only be removed if there is no suspicion, and it is only the Security Council that can remove these sanctions because it imposed them in the first place. ///End actuality///

Mr. Putin's reluctance to lift sanctions is his latest objection to the course of the U-S led intervention in Iraq. Along with France and Germany, Russia opposed the Bush administration's decision to attack Iraq in March and has steadfastly pushed for a stronger U-N role in post-war Iraq.

But U-S-Russian relations have also been strained by diverging views on other key issues, particularly Russia's assistance to Iran's nuclear program. The dispute over whether Iran intends to manufacture nuclear weapons in violation of international accords has put Moscow and Washington at loggerheads. America maintains that Teheran is using Russia's help to develop a nuclear weapons program, while Russia contends that the United States has no conclusive proof.

But at the same time that Vladimir Putin is charting an independent path, he still believes that cooperation with America is crucial to Russia's economic development and national security.

Mr. Putin is vainly hoping to have his cake and eat it, too, according to Ariel Cohen, a research fellow at the Heritage Foundation here in Washington, who spoke at a recent conference on US-Russia relations.

///Cohen actuality///

You cannot sit on two chairs at the same time. You cannot be friend and adversary at the same time.

///End actuality///

So, what is Russia today: America's ally or foe?

Some analysts say Moscow is still smarting from its fall from superpower status. According to Ariel Cohen, a weakened Russia is cobbling together ad-hoc alliances with a wide range of countries to fend off what it perceives as encirclement by an increasingly militant and unilateralist United States.

In this view of a resentful Russia, Mr. Putin has chosen to ally with China, which is also wary of America being the lone superpower in the world. But many analysts point out that there are also old Soviet client states, countries such as Iran and Syria and, until recently, Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Moscow has long had economic ties to these countries and sees good relations as a way to stave off instability on its southern borders. In the case of the Iraq war, some analysts say that Russia found common cause with France and Germany in order to try to contain American military power.

But the view of Russia as aligned against the United States is too narrow in scope, say other observers. Mr. Putin, they note, has accepted Russia's diminished status in the world and realizes that he needs America's help to get his country back on its feet. There are too many joint interests between Washington and Moscow to keep the two countries at odds.

The United States is already helping Russia secure its nuclear materials. And because the two countries possess more than 90 percent of the world's nuclear warheads and bombs, Washington and Moscow are linked by arms reduction agreements. America is also a key to Russia's bid to join the World Trade Organization and could be a large consumer of Russian oil in the future. And the two countries have a vested interest in combating terrorism around the world.

Leon Aron, Director of Russian Studies at the American Enterprise Institute, says President Putin realizes that Russia's hopes for long-term recovery lie with the United States.

///Aron actuality///

Putin and those close to him understand that the only way for Russia to play a positive and important role in world affairs is by some form of an alliance with the U-S. Europe is not strong enough to support Russia as it tries to climb out on the world scene for the first time in a fashion that is benign to its own people and the world. Only a partnership with the United States will allow Russia to become a great power again. ///End actuality///

So, why is President Putin opposing U-S policy in places such as Iraq?

Some analysts say that he is playing smart politics. Popular opinion in Russia was unanimously against allied military intervention in Iraq. And with parliamentary elections coming up in December, Mr. Putin's party, United Russia, cannot afford to lose out to the opposition Communist Party. Analyst Leon Aron says Mr. Putin knows that he needs support in parliament in order to follow through on his ambitious domestic reform program during what he hopes will be a second term in office.

///Aron actuality///

The existence of a pro-reform plurality is critical to Putin's legacy, which he takes very seriously. He wisely postponed the most painful reforms until his last term pension, more on electricity and housing reform, more on the military reform, the reforms that go very deeply and painfully into the very core of Russian society.

///End actuality///

An essential part of Mr. Putin's legacy will be the extent to which he is able to rebuild Russia. The Russian President has made it clear from his early days in office three years ago that he wants Russia to follow a Western development model.

But now with a division over Iraq between the U-S and Britain on one hand and France and Germany on the other, Mr. Putin finds himself trying to placate both sides so that Russia doesn't jeopardize any of its bilateral relations.

While he sided with France and Germany in opposing military action against Iraq, the Russian leader and his aides have emphasized Russia's neutrality as well as a strong partnership with the United States.

Andrew Kuchins is Director of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace here in Washington.

///Kuchins actuality///

One fundamental thing that the Iraq episode revealed is that Mr. Putin did not want to decide between Europe, or the "Old Europe" at least, and the United States. Mr. Putin needs France, Germany, the EU, Europe and the U-S for the goals of Russian modernization as well as the broader foreign policy and security goals of Russia. ///End actuality///

But not all of the cards are in the hands of Europe and the United States. America needs Russia, too. While Russia may be in an inferior position economically and militarily, its location between Europe and Asia and north of hotspots in South Asia and the Middle East means it cannot be ignored by U-S policymakers.

Charles Maynes is President of the Eurasia Foundation, a nonprofit, grant-making organization, which works in the former Soviet Union.

///Maynes actuality///

If the US is going to deal with its security problems in the "arc of crisis" -- the band that stretches from the area between India and Russia all the way over to the Atlantic Sea and northern Africa -- the U-S needs access and intelligence, and Russia is one of the few countries that can provide both. In terms of Eurasia, Russia is the stabilizer and the market of last resort. If Russia is doing poorly economically, it is very difficult to see how there is much of a future for much of Central Asia and Russia's immediate neighbors to the west, Belarus and Ukraine. These markets are closely related, so the future of Russia is absolutely central to the welfare and prosperity of its neighbors simply because of its size.

///End actuality///

Under communism, the Soviet Union tried unsuccessfully to pry Europe from its strong alliance with the United States. In the wake of the war on terror and the removal of Saddam Hussein, a fissure has appeared in the Western bloc of countries. Should the gap widen, some analysts say Vladimir Putin's success in reforming Russia may well depend on how well he can straddle the two camps in the Western world.

For Focus, I'm Jeff Lilley...