DATE=5/17/2000
TYPE=CORRESPONDENT REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA REFORM (L ONLY)
NUMBER=2-262487
BYLINE=BARRY WOOD
DATELINE=WASHINGTON
INTERNET=YES
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: Russia's generally upbeat economic prospects
were analyzed at two Washington conferences Wednesday.
V-O-A's Barry Wood reports there is basic agreement
that Russia has made significant progress in
overcoming its financial crisis of two years ago.
TEXT: Anders Aslund, a Russia specialist at the
Carnegie Endowment, says Russia could register growth
of six-percent this year. He says, in retrospect, the
financial crisis and the collapse of the ruble
exchange rate in August 1998 was a good thing because
it shocked policy makers and made them get serious
about budgetary discipline and enterprise
restructuring. Speaking at the Economic Strategy
Institute, Mr. Aslund expressed confidence that reform
will advance at a faster pace under President Vladimir
Putin He anticipates quick action on tax and land
reform.
At another forum - called the Planecon consultancy --
Russia specialist Ben Slay is also upbeat about
Russia. He anticipates growth of four-and-a-half
percent this year with declining inflation, a steady
exchange rate, and growing foreign currency reserves.
But Mr. Slay is less optimistic than Mr. Aslund that
President Putin represents a break with the corruption
that was so pervasive under Boris Yeltsin. Mr. Slay
points to Mr. Putin's recent acquiescence to a
controversial consolidation of the aluminum industry.
/// FIRST SLAY ACT ///
This raises the question of really how serious
is [Mr.] Putin about reforming the Russian
economy. Or are we just going to see business as
usual?
/// END ACT ///
Mr. Slay says both Mr. Putin and Prime Minister
Mikhail Kasyanov agreed to put aside Russia's anti-
competition law to permit this corporate merger that
was organized by Russia's economic oligarchs.
/// SECOND SLAY ACT //
Mr. Berezovsky clearly has his hand in this. As
does Mr. Abramovich, the head of Sibnaft oil.
Anatoly Chubais, the head of U-E-S electricity,
and of course electricity is a major input into
the production of aluminum. So, as with
everything in Russia, it is economics, but it is
politics too.
/// END ACT ///
The aluminum holding company will control about 15
percent of world aluminum output.
Researchers at Planecon do not anticipate any
significant resumption of lending to Russia this year
by the International Monetary Fund. But they say such
lending is unimportant now because Russia has growing
foreign currency reserves as a result of the sharp
rise in oil prices. (Signed)
NEB/BDW/gm
17-May-2000 15:14 PM EDT (17-May-2000 1914 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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