DATE=3/23/2000
TYPE=BACKGROUND REPORT
TITLE=RUSSIA ELECT / PUTIN
NUMBER=5-45989
BYLINE=PETER HEINLEIN
DATELINE=MOSCOW
CONTENT=
VOICED AT:
INTRO: As Russia's presidential campaign draws to a
close, the question is not who will win, but whether
Acting President Vladimir Putin will get the majority
he needs to win in Sunday's first round of voting. V-
O-A Moscow correspondent Peter Heinlein reports
political analysts are already looking ahead to what
kind of a president Mr. Putin will be.
TEXT: A panel of United States and Russian political
scientists gathered in central Moscow days before the
election to analyze the presidential campaign and look
to the future. The consensus is that Vladimir Putin
has a better than even chance of winning without a
runoff.
If he fails, he will easily defeat Communist
challenger Gennady Zyuganov in a second round.
The virtual certainty of this outcome clearly disturbs
many analysts. Stanford University professor Michael
McFaul says this campaign has been, in his words,
"depressingly the same" as those of the Soviet era.
/// FIRST MCFAUL ACT ///
The presidential election is being dominated by
the State and the remnants of the Communist
Party of the Soviet Union. In other words, all
the organizational, financial, capital, whatever
you want to call it, ten years later is being
dominated by things that were left over from the
old system. There are no new parties, no new
candidates.
/// END ACT ///
Another panelist, Professor Timothy Colton of Harvard
University, says he sees no chance of a return to
the Soviet Union. But he worries that Russia under a
President Putin could revert to a police state.
/// COLTON ACT ///
He (Putin) is in no position to re-institute the
Soviet system, and I don't think we should worry
about that. But he does talk about a strong
state, and my indecision has to do with my
inability to understand what he means by a
strong state. If it's just a code word for the
K-G-B taking over, that would be a disaster. I
don't think that's quite what he means, but
there's a police state side to this.
/// END ACT ///
The analysts in Moscow agree Mr. Putin's remarkable
popularity was largely fueled by the success of the
war in Chechnya. But his ratings have already peaked,
and are declining as voters gradually learn more about
him. Stanford University's Michael McFaul says Mr.
Putin may disappoint voters if he is unable to
continue working miracles.
/// SECOND MCFAUL ACT ///
He performed one miracle already, that is he defeated
the Chechens. That was a year ago not considered
possible. They were considered superhuman, national
liberation leaders, (who) defeated the Russian army. I
think the expectation is that he will do that again
and again, and my prediction is that he will fail.
/// END ACT ///
Still, Russians seem to like what they see in Mr.
Putin, though Michael McFaul and others believe most
voters are not exactly sure why.
Andrei Ryabov of the Moscow Carnegie Center said that
may be a second miracle performed by Mr. Putin and the
Kremlin inner circle. Eight months ago, few analysts
would have believed President Boris Yeltsin could name
his successor and have Russian voters accept the
choice. But that is exactly what is happening.
(Signed)
NEB/PFH/GE/gm
23-Mar-2000 12:42 PM EDT (23-Mar-2000 1742 UTC)
NNNN
Source: Voice of America
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