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EUROPE

RUSSIA: "Stepashin Vote Crowns Yeltsin Offensive"

Reformist Noviye Izvestiya (5/20) front-paged a comment by Sergei Agafonov: "The Duma's land slide vote for Stepashin yesterday, aside from crowning Yeltsin's spring offensive, ended a long period of political confrontation in Russia. The sought-after 'consent,' surprisingly, came easily, based on a simple choice between a fight to the bitter end and 'keeping what you have.'"

"To Each His Own"

Reformist Segodnya (5/20) had this page-one comment by Georgy Bovt and Natalia Kalashnikova: "The Communists expect the new premier to ensure 'normal' elections. Yeltsin wants him to make sure that the next Duma has as few Communists as possible."

"Russia Not Big News In America"

Yuri Sigov filed from Washington for reformist Noviye Izvestiya (5/20): "News about a change of premiers in Russia has left Americans cold, with the exception, perhaps, of American officials.... Supposedly, Stepashin's appointment will introduce a measure of certainty into the current situation in Russia, but that, American experts believe, will not last long. Counting on the popularity of this or that Russian politician in America is ill advised. That kind of popularity is an impediment, rather than an asset, for Russia's 'pro-Americans.'... Russia is not the number-one news in America. It is not even the number-two story. The Israeli elections and Ehud Barak's victory excite Americans incomparably more."

"Carthage Has To Be Destroyed"

Reformist Segodnya (5/19) front-paged a commentary by Georgy Bovt and Natalia Kalashnikova: "No matter how the president feels, the question of the Duma's disbandment will stay on the agenda. Premiers may get approved and candidates may change, but the Duma, in the president's eyes, will always be a Carthage which has to be destroyed."

BRITAIN: "An End To Another Of Russia's Crises"

The top-circulation, conservative Daily Telegraph observed (5/20): "The confirmation of President Yeltsin's choice for the job [of prime minister] by a huge majority in parliament brought to an end another of Russia's crises.... In the space of a week, Mr. Yeltsin has seen off the threat of impeachment...sacked Yevgeny Primakov...[whom] he came to regard as a major threat and secured his replacement by the much more malleable Mr. Stepashin. The only consolation for Mr. Yeltsin's enemies is that, with six months to go before elections and the president himself a major source of instability, any government is likely to be dangerously weak.... After the collapse of attempts to impeach Mr. Yeltsin over the weekend, Russia's opposition has clearly lost its stomach for a fight with the Kremlin over the new prime minister.... As an ex-minister of the interior and former head of the KGB's successor, Mr. Stepashin appears on paper to have all the credentials needed to impose the tough measures his troubled country needs. And yet one cannot help pitying him.... Mr. Stepashin starts his spell in office with the added disadvantage of being held in especially high esteem by the Russian [president].... He is now in danger of becoming the latest protege to be groomed as Russia's next president. But being touted as Mr. Yeltsin's successor...is generally akin to a political death sentence.... Mr. Yeltsin's last year in office is likely to be dominated by the succession problem and by worries that his worsening health and unpredictable behavior will unlease new chaos."

"Yeltsin Cows His Duma Enemies"

The conservative Times remarked (5/20): "Another decisive victory was scored by President Yeltsin over Russia's Communists yesterday when the State Duma voted to accept Sergei Stepashin as prime minister.... The Communist-dominated Duma has been cowed by its failed impeachment attempt against Mr. Yeltsin and his threat to dissolve it.... Mr. Stepashin...is likely to pave the way for market reforms of the kind that the Duma has long tried to block."

"Communists Play The Waiting Game"

The BBC's online network (5/19) offered this analysis on why the Communist-dominated Duma decided not to block Mr. Stepashin's confirmation: "Clearly the Communists decided it would not be to their advantage and it would be better to wait until the scheduled parliamentary elections in December.... The party's strategy, it seems, will be to criticize [the Stepashin government] at every turn, hoping the economy will remain stagnant or even decline between now and December. Now that they are no longer in the government, they can blame their opponents. There is, however, a feeling among some observers that in a time of tension...between President Yeltsin and the Communists, the Communists' rivals could 'come through the middle,' presenting themselves as the only people capable of pulling Russia out of crisis." Citing Moscow Mayor Luzhkov's Fatherland Party and the two regional groups, All Russia and Voice of Russia, the commentator added, "Certainly the Communists face a serious challenge from the new political groups appearing on the scene."

GERMANY: "The Erratic Russian Leader"

Right-of-center Fraenkischer Tag of Bamberg argued (5/21): "So far, no Russian prime minister has developed an effective means to ensure against economic misery and potential state bankruptcy, even though there have been capable people at the helm. Boris Yeltsin, who often reacts in an erratic manner, fired reform-friendly Prime Ministers Gaidar, Kiriyenko and Primakov too early, while he kept reform opponents, such as Victor Chernomyrdin, in office too long."

"Crisis Over; Misery Can Begin Anew"

Moscow correspondent Arnim Stauth told viewers of ARD-TV's (national channel one) early evening newscast Tagesschau (5/20): "Hoorah, the crisis is over, and the daily misery will now begin again in Russia. A little bit of political stability has been won, but the mess in Russia is so deep that even the best government would need years [to] achieve even modest successes. The people will not be better off with Stepashin, either."

"New Attempt"

Werner Adam front-paged this editorial in right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (5/20): "The Duma capitulated, the president triumphed. This is exactly the tone which Yeltsin's mouthpieces should never use if they are even halfway interested in good cooperation between parliament and government. Former Interior Minister Stepashin has the..reputation of being a law and order man, and this made it easier for the dominant Communists and nationalists in the Duma to approve Primakov's removal from office and Stepashin's appointment. But Stepashin, just as is the case with all his predecessors, will have to deal with the unaccountability of the man who appointed him and who carries the greatest responsibility for the political and economic instability of the country."

"Duma, Fear And Power"

Daniel Broessler observed in an editorial in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (5/20): "Yeltsin's victory is not necessarily the result of his political cleverness. He rather owes it to the constitution, which leaves all the cards in the president's hands.... This is why the parliamentarians in the Duma were not willing to play games [by] rejecting Stepashin on the first vote. They had to fear that the unpredictable man in the Kremlin would send a totally unacceptable candidate of radical reformer Anatoli Chubais's ilk to the second round."

"Power Struggles Continue; Everything Remains As It Was"

Right-of-center Thueringer Allgemeine of Erfurt argued (5/20): "The fact that Stepashin demonstrated that he is a loyal supporter of Yeltsin is not necessarily evidence of charisma. He will now, on the order of the Kremlin, occupy an important position in the power struggle in Moscow. But the situation is favorable for him to gain the upper hand against the apparatchicks and nationalists in the Duma. They changed their minds in the showdown with the president when he countered a looming impeachment proceeding with the (threat of a) dissolution of parliament. With the next parliamentary elections due to take place in seven months, some members did not dare risk their salaries. In Russia, everything remains as it was."

"Communists In A Corner; Little Likely To Change Under Stepashin"

Moscow correspondent Markus Ziener filed the following editorial for business Handelsblatt of Duesseldorf (5/20): "Rarely before has the enemy of the Communists, Boris Yeltsin, pushed the Communist Party into such a corner. The president may like this...but the atmosphere will now result in every confrontation between the president and parliament in Russia reaching the level of a state crisis.... And what about Stepashin? Even with him, not much will change in Russia, since there will be elections soon and the summer recess, and since he has a limited scope of action on economic matters. He may be able to push through some unpopular bills in the Duma, improve Moscow's relations with international financial institutions and bring in better expertise into the cabinet. But this...is probably all he can achieve by the summer of 2000."

ITALY: "Yeltsin's Man 'Triumphs'"

Antonella Scott wrote from Moscow in leading business Il Sole-24 Ore (5/20): "Everybody was expecting a storm, but suddenly calm has descended on Russia. If one could only isolate the words with which Stepashin introduced himself to Russian parliamentarians and to the world; if one could focus only on the warm reception given him by the Duma, incredibly warm after the attacks on Yeltsin for having ousted Primakov.... If all of that were possible, the Russia of the last few days would look like an oasis of stability, in which the prime minister-designate promises social peace and continuity with the politics of his predecessor, but, at the same time, reassures the international community.... It almost seems as if Yeltsin has found the magic formula to make everyone happy this time.... For the time being, we can only study the new Russian prime minister."

"Duma Surrenders To Yeltsin"

Alberto Stabile noted from Moscow in left-leaning, influential La Repubblica (5/20): "The temptation, at the end of the umpteenth duel between Yeltsin and the Duma, is to conclude that, in the end, nothing has changed.... In reality, things are not exactly as they were before. Yeltsin, whose political and institutional prospects were very low, has won the confrontation.... The opposition has emerged battered, having lost the game on impeachment."

BELGIUM: "Sergei Stepashin, Russia's Chief Fireman"

Pol Mathil commented in independent Le Soir (5/19): "In Mr. Yeltsin's and his entourage's mind, Mr. Stepashin is supposed to quietly lead Russia to the December legislative and June presidential elections, and, first and foremost, secure a peaceful and wealthy retirement for the president--and for his clan. One has to hope that, until then, there won't be any more fires in Russia or in the neighborhood."

BULGARIA: "The Russian Bear Is Very Sick"

Top-circulation Trud observed (5/25): "These days, the great northern giant is a melting snowman, sinking in gloomy resentment. It is obvious...that Russia's intermediary mission in the conflict in Yugoslavia has reached a dead end."

"Russia Experienced An Unexpectedly Short Political Crisis"

Influential weekly Kapital held (5/25): "It is hard to believe that the new political crisis in Russia was over so soon--only eight days after Primakov was ousted, two-thirds of the Duma deputies elected Sergei Stepashin for prime minister and President Yeltsin's impeachment proceedings were nipped in the bud and ended as a complete failure for the Russian left. [But] Yeltsin and the Communists will soon come to blows again and that is why no one wants to bet that Stepashin will greet New Year's Eve as a prime minister."

"Why The Duma Chose The Lesser Evil"

Center-left Sega held (5/20): "Everyone in Russia knows that Yeltsin is sick, unpredictable and addicted to power. The Duma, Russia and the world will be better off leaving him alone and delicately catering to his whims until his presidential term runs out in the year 2000."

"Why Yeltsin Always Wins"

Top-circulation Trud observed (5/20): "Compared to Yugoslavia, Russia--shaken by government and parliamentary crises--is turning into a much bigger problem for the West. To top it all off, the Kremlin has started reminding the West that if Moscow's intermediary efforts are underestimated, Russia will pull out of the efforts to resolve the Kosovo conflict. This would create an extremely awkward situation in Washington and NATO's European capitals at a time when a way out of this unpopular war is badly needed."

KAZAKHSTAN: "Boris Yeltsin's Intuition"

Pro-government, thrice-weekly Zhas Alash opined (5/20): "Both the oligarchy-democrats who support economic reforms and those opposing them (Zuganov and Selsznyev) are equally strong on their positions. Yeltsin makes them attack each other and hides behind a [protected] shell. Whenever the conflict of interest (between the two sides) becomes [too] dangerous, the 'bear' [Yeltsin] cries out and changes the entire situation [the leadership].... Yeltsin doesn't rely on logic; he is a person of intuition. He knows that time constantly changes everything.... Yeltsin knows people. During the financial crisis, inviting Primakov to serve as the prime minister was a clever idea.... Now it might be the time for strong control of the economy. That is why he has [now] invited Stepashin to serve as the prime minister. Very soon we will see if this decision was correct."

POLAND: "Fireman Stepashin"

Leopold Unger observed in liberal Gazeta Wyborcza (5/20): "In a matter of a few days Yeltsin demonstrated who governs in Russia. And the Duma showed that it has learned something.

"In one big leap it has moved from a position of open warfare and attempts to oust the president, to a purely pragmatic stance. The Duma came to understand that...it is not worth dying for or against Primakov or Stepashin in the battle with the president."

SPAIN: "Yeltsin's Fourth"

The Liberal El Pais commented (5/20): "Sergei Stepashin, a 47-year-old general, yesterday became Boris Yeltsin's fourth prime minister in little more than a year, after having won confirmation by the Duma on its first ballot with an unexpectedly large majority.... But Stepashin's job will be enormously difficult [given Russia's institutionalized corruption]. He is a general of the highest rank who was prominent in the war in Chechnya, for which he has been criticized. His last job was interior minister in which he gathered real power that may prove to be quite useful to Yeltsin, at whose side he has been seen since 1993. Presidential rhetoric aside, Stepashin appears to favor Western views more than Primakov did, especially after the offensive in Kosovo began."

EAST ASIA

CHINA: "Russia's Prospects Still Uncertain"

Wang Xuejian and Xu Hong noted in the official Beijing Youth Daily (Beijing Qingnianbao, 5/21): "Approval of Stepashin's appointment can only temporarily ease the tense situation in Russia. Russia's prospects are still uncertain."

INDONESIA: "No Drastic Changes On Yeltsin's Watch"

Leading, independent Kompas pointed out (5/21): "Yeltsin's repeated replacement of prime ministers clearly has yet to extract Russia from political and economic stagnancy. The fact that the Duma 'relented'--in order to avoid confrontation with Yeltsin and further upset a people weary of seeing their leaders and parliament play politics--demonstrates that Russia is just 'running in place.' Plainly, Yeltsin's decision to dismiss Primakov while himself on the brink of impeachment, was merely an attempt to reassert his power. Given his preference for constitutional conflict over efforts to end the lengthy crisis, people are questioning Yeltsin's political intentions. There will be no drastic changes in Russia on Yeltsin's watch so long as the Duma remains uncooperative. Stephasin's government will also be limited by the December parliamentary elections."

"Yeltsin Seeks To Maintain Status Quo"

The Independent afternoon Suara Pembaruan wrote (5/20): "We believe...Stephasin can only continue what his predecessors began.... Stephasin's rise, which was no surprise at all, illustrates that he is only an extension of the sickly Yeltsin. This is even more clear with his statement that he will continue Yeltsin's policies."

SOUTH ASIA

INDIA: "The Games Yeltsin Plays"

The centrist Hindu (5/23) had this piece by Moscow correspondent Vladimir Radyuhin: "Boris Yeltsin has won yet another battle to hold on to power despite his frail health and glaring inability to run the country.... The sacking of Primakov was not an act of 'erratic behavior' by Yeltsin or a revenge on the Communist-dominated State Duma over its impeachment bid. It was a well-planned strike to remove a premier who posed a mortal threat to Yeltsin.... Primakov was also a big threat to the system of corrupt and crony capitalism...[that] Yeltsin has built....

"Had Primakov succeeded in his anti-corruption drive, he would have undercut the economic basis of Yeltsin's power; it was the oligarchs who financed Yeltsin's re-election campaign in 1996 and they are believed to be taking care of his family's personal needs.... One must hand it to Yeltsin: his political instincts are still sharp as ever.... The failed impeachment vote totally eclipsed Primakov's firing and dampened the deputies' appetite for a further fight against Yeltsin [on the Stepashin appointment].... [But] economic revival may be stalled by the renewed Kremlin infighting and confrontation between the government and parliament. Angered by Primakov's dismissal, the deputies will be reluctant to approve a package of tax-raising measures negotiated by his government with the IMF.... Russia seems headed for more political upheavals ahead of the parliamentary elections planned for December and the presidential elections in mid-2000.... The dumping of the popular and respected Primakov is also an indication of Yeltsin mulling over staying on beyond 2000, perhaps getting around constitutional obstacles by becoming president of the fledgling union with neighboring Belarus or declaring a state of emergency to try to stay on by force."

"Yeltsin's Recovery"

The centrist Statesman (5/22) had this commentary by Hair Vasudevan, a professor of History at Calcutta University: "It was the international impasse over Kosovo that gave Russia's president the opportunity to find a major role for himself in public life.... The conditions that allowed this 'revival' are self-evident, and lie in the foreign policy impasse in which Russia found itself.... Yeltsin's broader concerns in reshaping the government, though, have been partially clear in the nomination of Aksenenko--a stalwart of [prominent Russian oligarch] Berezovsky--as pro-tem railway minister. The president will certainly do his best to ensure that the economy's 'privateers' will have a say in the way that future policy is shaped.... Worrisome is the shape of things to come as NATO's eastward expansion proceeds and Russia's political and economic establishment lurches from crisis to crisis. For, it is impossible to rely on Yeltsin's pulling the Euro-American fat out of the fire in the future.... It is in the rise of powerful interests in the Russian provinces that some solution to these problems might be found. The political instruments for this new order, though, are not clear, and it is for that reason that Euro-American governments...have been trying to show themselves open to all suggestions, even while, when brought to the crunch, they have supported their man in the Kremlin."

SRI LANKA: "Boris Yeltsin--Russia's Real Problem?"

Stanley Kalpage had this op-ed piece in the pro-opposition, English-language weekly Sunday Island (5/23): "If the Duma rejected Yeltsin's nominee for prime minister three times, the president could dissolve the chamber and call parliamentary elections. Communist lawmakers preferred to keep their jobs, and approving Stepashin, who is seen as low-key, offered them a face-saving way to do so.... In the final analysis, the impeachment and confirmation crises demonstrate what has been clear for some time, that the real problem in Russia is Boris Yeltsin. He has lost whatever ability he might once have had to play a constructive role in Russian domestic politics. With his frail health, erratic behavior, lack of vision and deep unpopularity (his approval rating hovers around 2 percent), he cannot forge the coalition needed to design and implement a program that addresses Russia's pressing needs.... The transfer of power from Yeltsin to a successor is a pre-condition for Russia's recovery. But there is no immediate guarantee of that. Yet the sooner that happens, the better for Russia and the world."

WESTERN HEMISPHERE

BRAZIL: "Yeltsin's Swagger"

Center-right O Estado de Sao Paulo's Paris correspondent observed (5/22): "Eight days ago, Boris Yeltsin had reached rock bottom. Today he can swagger. Yeltsin is like a phoenix.... He is revived once again."

"To Understand The Opposition's Retreat"

Liberal Folha de Sao Paulo's international editor, Jaime Spitzcovsky, asked (5/20): "How does one explain that a weakened Yeltsin...has succeeded in having the Duma approve Stepashin on the first vote? How does the Duma...docilely approve a prime minister who considers IMF-recommended measures to be government priorities? How do neo-Communists and nationalists massively vote for a prime minister supported by Anatoli Chubais, the 'father' of the Russian privatization program and an enemy of the opposition? The Russian Communist Party has not changed its ideals. On the contrary...the neo-Communists think they can still can increase their representation [in the Duma].... The opposition sees Stepashin's cabinet as one of transition.... While Yeltsin campaigns for an eventual, but unlikely political recovery, the other actors in this Russian opera prefer to wait for the next acts. And Russian misgovernment is expected to continue, particularly in the economic sector, which has been the victim of chronic crisis in recent years."

CANADA: "Double Play For Yeltsin, But More Stagnant Confusion"

Editorialist Guy Taillefer of liberal, French-language Le Devoir remarked (5/20): "In a moment of lucidity, the president used his tactical talents to yet again escape political burial. A nice double play for Mr. Yeltsin, but there are also renewed predictions of stagnant confusion for Russia.... In the interest of Russia, Boris Yeltsin should have resigned a long time ago.... The president governs not in the interest of his ruined country, but simply out of a thirst for power. Moreover, his behavior seems to give substance to the disturbing thesis that Mr. Yeltsin has not renounced a bid for a third presidential mandate in the summer of 2000, even if the constitution forbids it."

PERU: "A Black Future For Russia"

Roman D. Ortiz, an international security expert, told readers of his column in the straightforward, respected El Comercio (5/19): "One of the worse traditions of U.S. foreign policy is its tendency to analyze foreign countries through Western eyes. For a decade Washington did this with Yeltsin and Russia and now is paying the consequences. The United States has ignored moderate nationalist leaders like Alexander Lebed and groups like the Communist party, in spite of its majority in parliament. And all this to support the political line defended by Yeltsin. Now, to replace Primakov, Yeltsin has formed an alliance which will make all the Western fears about the future of Russia come true. In the meantime, the United States and Europe can do little to influence events. They have no more interlocutors in the Russian political spectrum and the war in Kosovo has stimulated anti-Western feelings among the Russian people. Russia seems to be condemned to a black future. That is the color of dictatorships."

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5/25/99

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