August 18, 1999
RUSSIA: ELECTION POLITICS HEAT UP; DAGESTAN 'WAR' PERSISTS; ARMS CONTROL DISCUSSED
Events in Russia continued to garner extensive media coverage as overseas analysts mulled over the political scene in Russia, with the run-up to December's parliamentary elections and the 2000 presidential elections foremost in the minds of most observers. "The battle for the succession is on," declared one paper, and most foresaw a fight that would not be "clean, fair or reassuring to the outside world." While the latest round of government reshuffling and unrest in the southern region of Dagestan remained staples of editorial pages in Moscow and elsewhere, yesterday's announcement by ex-Prime Minister Primakov that he would join forces with Moscow Mayor Luzhkov and regional governors in a centrist electoral bloc--the so-called "Fatherland-All Russia" coalition--and this week's resumption of high-level U.S.-Russian arms control talks also drew the attention of Russia watchers. Highlights follow:
ELECTION BATTLE LINES BEING DRAWN: The latest change of government--which left Vladimir Putin as the new premier and Mr. Yeltsin's heir-apparent--was viewed by a strong majority as evidence that the president was less interested in strengthening democratic institutions than in protecting the interests of his family and associates as they position themselves for the upcoming election year. London's independent weekly Economist found it "unfortunate" that Mr. Yeltsin did not seem to "understand the importance of continuity of government, of building parties, of fighting corruption, of enforcing the law and of generally establishing the institutional framework that democracy demands." Indeed, concern about the state of Russian democracy," as its politics appear to be sinking more and more deeply into a morass of intrigues and mistrust," was widespread. A few held the U.S. somewhat accountable, since it was due to "Washington's advocacy [that] much of the world has put its faith in Yeltsin to carry the torch for democracy in Russia." Meanwhile, several saw Mr. Primakov's agreeing to head "Fatherland-All Russia" as posing a formidable challenge to the Kremlin leadership, perhaps eventually "dominating the political landscape."
THE DANGERS OF DAGESTAN: Opinion diverged on whether "Russia's new war" in the Caucasus might escalate to another Chechnya. One Moscow writer maintained that Dagestan is "an exact copy of Chechnya;" another demurred, arguing that it is "no Chechnya" since "99 percent of Dagestanis want to fight the invading bandits." A number of analysts worried that the real "danger is that the conflict will be used by Yeltsin to bolster his own fragile position in Moscow" by perhaps "imposing a state of emergency, which could then justify postponing both the parliamentary and presidential polls." German papers urged the West to send a clear message to the Kremlin that such action would be unacceptable.
U.S.-RUSSIAN ARMS CONTROL: With U.S.-Russian arms control talks on START III and possible modifications to the ABM Treaty underway, papers in Britain and Germany--referring to the proliferation of missile know-how to "some 30 countries of varying reliability"--judged that there are "good reasons for a missile defense system." Noting that "the next arms race could be anti-missile protection," one analyst insisted that "this week's talks...are critically important."
EDITOR: Katherine L. Starr and Kathleen J. Brahney
EDITOR'S NOTE: This survey is based on 72 reports from 28 countries, August 11 - 18. The following editorial excerpts are grouped by region; editorials from each country are listed in reverse chronological order.
EUROPE
RUSSIA: "Dagestan Is No Chechnya"
Centrist, trade union Trud (8/18), reporting about fighting in Dagestan, cited a member of the former Stepashin cabinet, Ramazan Abdulatipov: "This is a war against Russia and its integrity. An international group of bandits, finding refuge in Chechnya, staged this war. Terrorists spent several years preparing for it, financed by international centers. Dagestan is not what Chechnya was before the war there. The Russian troops' mission in Dagestan is entirely different from what they did in Chechnya. Ninety-nine percent of Dagestanis want to fight against the invading bandits."
"Yeltsin Wins One Of His Last Battles"
Natalia Konstantinova noted on page one of centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (8/18): "The confirmation of Vladimir Putin as prime minister must make Yeltsin feel better. He has won an important battle, possibly one of his last, before he leaves as president. The Duma can sit back and relax until December, and the new government, led by Kremlin protege Putin, will most likely act as a branch of the administration, closely supervised by Yeltsin himself."
"No Reform Is Expected"
Natalia Neimysheva concluded on page one of reformist Izvestiya (8/18): "Along with a new government, we have to accept its 'continuity' policy. All it will do is try to help those in need of national budget money. The previous cabinet did the same. With elections around the corner, there is going to be no reform."
"Indifference"
Neo-communist Slovo (8/18-19) remarked editorially on page one: "Indifference reigned supreme in the Russian parliament as it discussed the appointment of a new prime minister. You can't blame the deputies. It is the fourth premier they had to approve in a year. The political elite's only concern is surviving. The president wants more time to enjoy his position. The premier is eager to assert himself. And the deputies would like to return to their seats in the Duma after the December poll."
"Reformers Fail"
Official parliamentary Parlamentskaya Gazeta (8/17) ran a commentary by Andrei Papushin: "The choice of Putin, the chief of the FSB (the Federal Security Service) and the Security Council, shows that things are getting serious. There is no way back, and to protect the 'democratic values,' the powers that be think they can only rely on people from the 'power structures' [and] those who are close to the president.... This is evidence that 'reformers' have failed. That the Kremlin has picked the FSB's chief as a successor and bodyguard (in the broadest sense of the word) makes this evident."
"Crisis Senseless, Boring"
Vyacheslav Nikonov judged in reformist Izvestiya (8/17): "The current (political) crisis is the most predictable, senseless, boring and short-lived in the last few years. After giving the boot to two popular premiers, the Kremlin has decided to gamble by betting on a dark horse."
"Duma Doesn't Care About Premiers"
According to Natalia Kalashnikova and Yevgeny Yuryev on page one of reformist Segodnya (8/17): "The Duma does not care a hoot about who will be the premier in the period before the elections. The Kremlin has missed a chance to solve the continuity problem--the Duma would have accepted anyone, be it Chubais, Gaidar or even Tatyana Dyachenko."
"Duma Pragmatic"
Irina Granik reported on page one of reformist, business-oriented Kommersant Daily (8/17): "Yesterday the Duma quickly approved Vladimir Putin. Seeing no difference between him and his predecessor, the deputies showed a pragmatic approach to the approving procedure."
"Putin To Be Approved"
Marina Kalmykova predicted on page one of reformist Vremya-MN (8/16): "Yeltsin's new figurehead will leave the Duma as a premier.... Theirs is a vote not for Putin but a chance to hold an election campaign quietly, without problems. All they want is fair and timely elections, so they will vote him in. Another change of the cabinet has left them so cold that they would not mind temporarily giving up their right to approve a new premier. With a procedure so routine, they might as well approve a list of prospective premiers for a year ahead, along with a federal budget."
"Putin--End Of Liberal Era"
Centrist Nezavisimaya Gazeta (8/14) front-paged this commentary by Aleksandr Tsipko: "If the 'family' makes its choice definitive and has Putin elected as president, the 'liberal' era will end. For Russia to have the leader with the face and mentality of a KGB investigator is no blessing. Putin will not change to become a goody-goody czar. The opposite is more likely. In Russia, authority has never helped anyone become more ethical. Yeltsin has done a great thing by anointing Putin--there is no other way to unmask our so-called democracy and our so-called liberals and show the world what we really are. 'Yeltsin and family' can do to Russia anything they want. We have no political force to resist this authoritarian regime. Our selfish and wily political elite will not rise from its knees. The Yeltsin era will continue for a long time after Yeltsin. As long as our democracy has the face of Colonel Putin."
"Family Vs. Rest Of Russia"
Natalia Kalashnikova asserted in reformist Segodnya (8/14): "The latest (evidently, not the last) government crisis has conclusively split the Russian elite, with the family (the Kremlin) up against the rest of Russia. It seems that the non-family stands to win and, more so, take over control. Practically all, speaking with one voice, want 'the Yeltsin Constitution' revised. So we may be in for surprises concerning the 2000 elections."
"It Sounds Like Chechnya"
Official government Rossiiskaya Gazeta (8/13) ran this piece by Boris Yamshanov: "Reports from Dagestan make the whole thing sound like the early period of the Chechnya drama. It's all talk and no action. In the meantime, bandits feel free to do what they want in Russia, smiling arrogantly on TV screens. When will we ever learn? Thousands of our soldiers died in Chechnya. This is too high a price for a lack of will or politicians' double game?"
"Self-Defense Justified"
Aleksandr Bykov, reporting on fighting in Dagestan, demanded in official parliamentary Parlamentskaya Gazeta (8/12): "Why is it possible in Russia at all? Obviously, the federal center and 'force structures' are helpless to the point of conniving with what is going on. It is equally obvious that the local population can't stand the outrages of extremists anymore. The idea of a resistance movement and self-defense groups seems justified under the circumstances. The popular volunteer corps is graphic testimony to the feds' impotence and failure in the North Caucasus. Dagestan will never be the same, no matter what happens next. That is true also of Russia."
"A Copy Of Chechnya 5 Years Ago"
Valery Yakov said on page one of reformist Noviye Izvestiya (8/12): "The current events in Dagestan are an exact copy of the Chechnya story of five years ago. The government, for all the multitude of troops, special services and means available to it, is helpless. It has started to arm volunteers. Armed, the volunteers may soon turn against the local administration. To arm Dagestan is to create a new potential danger of war in Russia. The fighting in the mountains is just a prelude. Alarmingly, it shows that the past five years have been wasted on the president, the premier and the 'force ministries.'"
BRITAIN: "Two Unpleasant Russians"
The conservative Daily Telegraph opined (8/18): "As Russia's parliamentary elections approach, anti-Yeltsin forces are coalescing. The battle for the succession is on, and the tide is not flowing Mr. Yeltsin's way. Indeed, his endorsement of Mr. Putin appears to be galvanizing his opponents.... Viewed from outside, the prospect is not pleasing. Mr. Yeltsin seems more concerned for the future of his family and close collaborators than for that of the country as a whole. His protege, Mr. Putin, suffers from the blessing of a president with whom the public is fed up. His two main rivals promise policies less friendly to Western interests than those of the present administration. Yuri Luzhkov, the mayor of Moscow, is ambivalent on economic reform and has been a leading critic of Mr. Yeltsin's steps to put relations with Ukraine on a new, post-Soviet basis. Primakov, a friend of Saddam Hussein and a former intelligence chief, distinguished himself as prime minister by his passivity, thus convincing people that he was a stabilizing factor. Mr. Yeltsin's erratic behavior has exasperated, but overall he has maintained a pro-Western line. The same cannot be expected of those jockeying to fill his shoes."
"New Threat Revives Old Worries About An Arms Race"
The conservative Times had this lead editorial (8/18): "American negotiators are in Moscow to start detailed talks on the amending of the U.S.-Soviet ABM Treaty.... These talks will be extremely difficult. Russia's main worry is that the Americans could become invulnerable to its missiles, and therefore be able to attack Russia with impunity. The challenge of persuading Russia that this move is in no way directed against it--and a readiness to consider some degree of cooperation against threats from rogue regimes, to which Russia is if anything more vulnerable than America--is one that U.S. diplomacy must not, therefore, fail. Why this seemingly sudden urgency? For an answer, look south and, above all, east--to Iran, to Libya, to Iraq, to the Indian subcontinent and particularly to North Korea, the most worrying of some 30 countries of varying reliability which, almost irrelevant during the Cold War era, are now believed to be capable of launching some kind of missile.... The trend seems clear. Missile shields could mean almost as much to the next generation of defense planners as the nuclear umbrella was to the last. The next arms race could be anti-missile protection. These are all reasons why this week's talks in Moscow are critically important."
"Russia's New War"
The independent Financial Times editorialized (8/18): "It is understandable that the Russian government has reacted with anger and frustration at the latest insurrection by Islamist militants in the remote republic of Dagestan. The bitter defeat inflicted on the Russian military in neighboring Chechnya in 1996 is a vivid memory, and Moscow's generals are no doubt determined that it must not happen again. But there is a real danger that a Russian over-reaction to the incursion could destabilize the region, instead of bringing the situation under control.... Moscow seems determined to over-react. The EU is right to appeal for restraint, while supporting Russia's right to preserve its territorial integrity. The danger is that the conflict will be used by President Yeltsin to bolster his own fragile position in Moscow, and that of his new prime minister, Vladimir Putin. Dagestan may not be another Chechnya, but surely that lesson of military incompetence has not been forgotten so soon."
"Exaggerating The Dagestan Threat Will Exacerbate It"
The conservative Times ran this editorial (8/17): "Muslim guerrillas who have crossed into neighbouring Dagestan from lawless postwar Chechnya, triggered an alarm system that was already on high alert.... Moscow is inclined to see this as the Chechnya war revisited. But, before Moscow takes plans for a fullscale onslaught any further, it should pause to consider whether it is overreacting. It makes perfect sense to stop the gunmen in Dagestan. But may be alarmist to depict this small-scale unrest as a Chechnya-type threat. Chechnya's rebellion was backed by a population hostile to the advancing Russians and ready to fight. Dagestan is different, a hotch-potch of ethnicities run by pro-Moscow politicians with a preference for a quiet life. The last thing they want is for any group to start clamouring for self-rule; they also want to avoid the fate of Chechnya, which suffered 80,000 casualties. Dagestani police, who have no time for the extremists, are even helping the Russians to fight.... Almost the only way to make Dagestanis rise up against Russia, in fact, would be an inappropriately severe Russian crackdown--a path that Moscow is already beginning to take. Russia's response has been a mix of massive firepower and highly public panic about the threat to national unity. The new prime minister, Vladimir Putin, was approved yesterday by the hard-line Duma, mainly because of his tough views on Dagestan. MPs declared the troubles there a threat to Russia and insisted the invaders be 'wiped out'; President Yeltsin promised a tough response and said Mr. Putin, a Soviet KGB veteran, was just the man to handle it."
"Back To The Boyars"
The independent Financial Times had this lead editorial (8/13): "The battle to succeed Boris Yeltsin as Russia's president next year is about to begin in earnest. In a quasi-democratic system, the fight is not going to be clean, or fair, or reassuring to the outside world. It is a battle in which the victor and his supporters take all. And anyone who seeks today to predict the outcome next July is either a knave or a fool.... Meanwhile the outside world looks on bemused, and Western governments insist they do not care about personalities, only policies. Given the absence of any serious policy debate, and indeed the lack of any clear political direction in the Russian government, that seems perverse. Personalities will be the key to power in Russia for the foreseeable future. What the West should be seeking, even if it remains elusive, is the leadership to provide better governance in Russia. Without it, sustained economic recovery looks fanciful. Yet few, if any, of the new barons have clean hands. At this stage of democracy, they are still fighting for the spoils of office."
"Russian Roulette"
The independent weekly Economist's editorial stated (8/13): "For Boris Yeltsin, democracy means elections. These he has secured for Russia, even if their character has owed more to the late Mayor Daley of Chicago than to Pericles.
"In December, a round of voting will take place to elect a new parliament and then, next summer, another round will elect a new president.... Mr. Yeltsin understands the importance of these polls. Unfortunately, he does not understand the importance of continuity of government, of building parties, of fighting corruption, of enforcing the law and of generally establishing the institutional framework that democracy demands.... Whoever takes charge of Russia will find it hard to rescue a country that has gone so definitively to pot under Mr. Yeltsin. Another year of his fitful and capricious rule will make that task even harder."
FRANCE: "The Enigmatic Putin"
Laure Mandeville observed in right-of-center Le Figaro (8/17): "More even than Stepashin, Putin is an enigma. No one knows what his beliefs or his intentions are.... Called to office in order to fight the fundamentalists of Dagestan, Putin's task is also to fight a political battle against Moscow's mayor."
"The Islamic Trap"
Pierre Rousselin opined in right-of-center Le Figaro (8/17): "The strategy of the soldiers of Allah has already been tested in Chechnya: the longer the fighting, the more supporters it gets.... A trap has been set for Russia, and it could very well fall into it. What is at stake is more than a regional conflict: Dagestan is strategically placed in the Caucasus.... The Kremlin, in turn facing Islamic fundamentalism, is sure to find new support from the West."
"An Unpredictable New War"
Aime Jezequel held in regional Le Journal du Centre (8/17): "After the numbing defeat sustained in Chechnya, a new military reversal against the Islamic fundamentalists of the Caucasus would weigh heavily on the West's continuing trust in Russia. If Russia loses control of the black gold that transits through the region, it will be incapable of paying off its debts. This explains why few voices are being heard in support of the rebels. Particularly since the outcome of this new war of the Caucasus is unpredictable."
"The Dagestan Powder Keg"
Laure Mandevile opined in right-of-center Le Figaro (8/16): "Bassayev's involvement in Dagestan is a major challenge for the Russian army, which has yet to recover from its defeat in the Chechnyan mountains. With Bassayev as an opponent, the war may well turn out to be long and unpredictable."
"The Clone"
Charles Lambroschini penned this editorial in right-of-center Le Figaro (8/13): "Boris Yeltsin is torn between two incompatible objectives. He wants to make sure that history will remember him and, at the same time, he wants to preserve the comfort of his 'family.'... The solution is to find a Yeltsin clone.... The situation in Dagestan could justify a state of emergency, and...elections could be temporarily canceled. Ten years after the fall of communism, political battles [in Russia] are not about ideas and parties. Instead, it is a fight to control the market."
"Holy War Against Moscow In Caucasus"
In right-of-center Le Figaro, Laure Mandeville wrote (8/12): "The arrival on the Dagestan scene of...Chamyl Bassayev...is not reassuring for the Kremlin.... Bassayev is expected to make the Russian troops' life difficult, as he has at his disposal in Chechnya very well trained troops who are waiting only for a sign to take arms.... Would his goal be to promote the idea of a great Chechnya that would progressively swallow other Caucasian republics?"
"Dagestan: Moscow's Islamist Challenge"
Veronique Soule wrote in left-of-center Liberation (8/12): "The game is extremely dangerous for Moscow. Dagestan has up to now succeeded in maintaining a fragile balance. But people are unhappy with misery and bribery. And the regime, so far a faithful ally, blames Moscow for its indecision towards the rebels. Moscow fears the exportation of Islam and a civil war."
GERMANY: "Start For START III"
Jochen Siemens argued in left-of-center Frankfurter Rundschau (8/18): "The driving force (for a START III accord) is the United States. The only remaining superpower with global interests and security commitments all over the world was the target of several terrorist attacks. This is bad enough, but the expectation to become the target of nuclear weapons and carrier missiles has profoundly changed the security policy discussion in Washington. What is needed is a defense system that is able to shoot down individual missiles, but such a system would violate the ABM Treaty.... Russia does not have the money to maintain 3,000 let alone 6,000 nuclear warheads.... To disarm is expensive and to modernize arms could even turn out to be ruinous. The United States can disarm in a controlled and verifiable way only together with Russia.... There are good reasons for the missile defense system which the United States wants. Missile tests in Iran, India, and Pakistan, and probably soon in North Korea are evidence of the increasing danger of the proliferation of carrier systems. If (the United States and Russia) continue to leave their old enemy images behind, it must also be in Moscow's interest to minimize these risks not only through preventive diplomacy but also through a security system."
"All's Well That Ends Badly"
Andreas Zumach wrote this editorial in left-of-center Die Tageszeitung of Berlin (8/18): "According to the United States, the current U.S. missile plans [for revising the ABM Treaty] are not directed against Russia but against threats from North Korea, Iraq, and other rogue states. This explanation may reassure Moscow, but cannot be satisfying, because a softening of the ABM Treaty would make political and multilateral diplomatic efforts to contain the proliferation of nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons and ballistic missiles more difficult. The illusion of counter-proliferation, which Washington also propagates in NATO, would get a new momentum. Even if Clinton's arms program failed in a few years due to technological and financial reasons, the U.S. plans will, for the time being, strengthen rather than weaken arms built-up plans in other countries."
"Putin's Past; Putin's Burden"
Thomas Urban had this to say in an editorial in centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (8/17): "Putin comes from the espionage apparatus of the KGB, but he is a member of the young generation who has recognized that there is no alternative to Russia's narrowing its divisions with the West.... This is why he could be the right man today to find a currently unthinkable compromise solution to the conflict in the Caucasus. If Moscow is unable to get this problem under control, the Kremlin camp will lose not only the next elections, but Russia will also be out of the game for crude oil in the Caspian region, an enormous burden on Putin's shoulders."
"The New Man"
Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine (8/16) front-paged this editorial by Werner Adam: "The ex-KGB president in the former GDR, who has now advanced to the new premier in Russia, can hope to be confirmed in the first ballot in the Duma as new prime minister. Four months before the parliamentary elections, the parliamentarians will hardly risk resisting the appeal of President Yeltsin since this would result in an early resignation and in a loss of their various privileges. However, the feeling of political humiliation will remain.
"If Russia really established a better system of democratic checks and balances, we can only wish to the future parliament that it achieves an amendment to the constitution restricting the omnipotence of the president."
"Moscow's Ice Age"
Right-of-center Mindener Zeitung held (8/16): "The ailing Yeltsin did not bring the country closer to democracy and market economy despite all Western hopes, concessions, and assistance. On the contrary, his apparatus has rather slowed down and impeded this development because it wants to stay in power. The problem is that the West is not willing to admit that [its hopes were misplaced.] What would have been the alternative: chaos and unpredictability. In Moscow, an ice-age has prevailed for much too long. The country needs new ideas and new leaders."
"Russia's Superpower Hubris"
Centrist Sueddeutsche Zeitung of Munich (8/14) argued: "Over the past few months, Moscow's policy has consisted mainly of intrigues and rancours. The struggle for power does not leave any time to concentrate on the problems of the country. In addition, there is the fatal adherence to its superpower role. Former General Lebed is rightfully wondering why the few operational Russian forces are in Kosovo and Bosnia, while volunteer corps have to be set up in Dagestan. This superpower hubris on the one side and the inability to create law and order on the other side: This does not fit together."
"No Minor War"
Georg Watzlawek commented in business Handelsblatt of Duesseldorf (8/14): "Instead of (allowing Yeltsin to provoke parliament), the Duma is likely to confirm new Premier Putin in the first vote. By doing so, the Duma does not want to give Yeltsin the chance to dissolve it. Then Yeltsin and his aides will have no chance to avoid a debacle at the Duma elections. There is only one chance for them: a state of emergency in Dagestan. But it is an open question whether the power clique in the Kremlin is willing to cling to this straw, since it would only gain a few months more time. On the other hand, there is still time for a final deal. In return for a clean departure from the Kremlin, Yeltsin could negotiate an honorable pension, his apparatchicks could side with his opponents, and his financial advisors could follow their dirty capital to Switzerland. For months, an increasing number of aides has been leaving the sinking ship. Clinton, Schroeder, and co. could intensify this trend by making clear that they do not accept a 'minor war.' Not even in Dagestan."
"Warning Signs"
Right-of-center Frankfurter Allgemeine front-paged this editorial (8/13): "When Russia prepared for the campaign against secessionist Chechnya in 1994, the West silently watched the preparations for the war. And when Russia used terror against the Chechen civilian personnel, the United States and Europe stuck to the view that this was an inner-Russian affair. The Kremlin did not have to expect a deterioration of relations with the West at any time. However, this time, more could be at stake. We have heard warnings...that Yeltsin could use the unrest in the Caucasian republic of Dagestan as a pretext to impose a state of emergency, thus justifying a postponement of the parliamentary and presidential elections.... This time, it could be necessary from a Western point of view to tell the Kremlin in clear words that the fighting in Dagestan...cannot be a reason to postpone parliamentary and presidential elections. And only those (Russians) who are entrusted with the leadership of the country within the time periods laid down in the Russian constitution can be partners for the West."
ITALY: "Object Of Primakov Coalition Is Winning Majority In December's Vote"
Fabrizio Dragosei judged from Moscow in top-circulation, centrist Corriere della Sera (8/18): "There is a new and grand coalition which seems destined to rout (Yeltsin) in December and the presidential elections of next year.... Ex-Prime Minister Primakov and Moscow Mayor Luzhkov yesterday announced the birth of a new centrist bloc called 'All Russia,' formed by a group of regional governors and deputies from the Agrarian Party.... The new bloc foresees a constitutional reform which will remove some power from the president and give more to the prime minister.... The party of the government could be routed if it doesn't succeed in creating a coalition with the right--or even the Communists. The Kremlin risks becoming pathetic."
"Who Has Lost Russia Yet Again?"
Siegmund Ginzberg commented in leading, pro-DS (leading government party) L'Unita (8/17): "Who is to blame if the screw-up of the gigantic Euro-Asian country assumes catastrophic and uncontrollable dimensions, and if the United States and the West find themselves, for the second time in this century, no longer dealing with a great, diverse and friendly country, but with a mortal enemy, with nuclear arms, full of resentment and bitterness?... Who has commited the unpardonable error of putting all his eggs in Yeltsin's basket? Already the recriminations are flying.... The great American 'post-Yeltsin' anxiety has returned. The White House minimizes it. But the press and the experts are agitated. And this time something new is added: It's become one of the potential central themes of the [U.S.] presidential elections of 2000. If Russia explodes between now and the elections for the Duma or those for the Russian president next year, it could decide the outcome of the American presidential elections."
"The Anti-Yeltsin Front Expands"
Antonella Scott maintained in leading, business Il Sole-24 Ore (8/17): "In the fields of corn in Iowa and in the halls of the Kremlin, with great anticipation, the battle to win the presidential election for 2000 has begun... Yeltsin is no longer Russia. This long electoral campaign is a war to the last drop of blood for power--the Kremlin against everyone.... The president and his band at the Kremlin are more and more isolated; meanwhile the anti-Yeltsin front strengthens. It's a more credible, serious and articulated opposition with respect to that of four years ago. Then Yeltsin was already sick and had already disappointed many...but the alternative was the Communists.... Today Yeltsin and his 'family' are discredited.... And Putin...was elected...in great haste for the single reason that no one gives him more than a few months as premier."
"It Is A Massacre In The Caucasus Already"
Piero Sinatti commented in leading, business Il Sole 24-Ore (8/15): "The conflict in Dagestan is getting more serious.... Moscow is using its well known threatening voice while also making grotesque proposals, as the one from Interior Minister Zubov who invited Maskhadov to send Chechnyan troops to Dagestan.... Old, inefficient and brutal strategies are coming up again. With the same arrogance as in December 1994, when Russian ministers promised to get rid of Dudaev's separatist militias in two days.... Putin today promises to close the conflict with the 'gangsters' in two weeks.... Once more, we have a heavy, barely mobile and inefficient army sent to fight a very motivated and mobile enemy.... It would be a farce, if there weren't already dead people and if there were not already 6,000 refugees on top of the million or more refugees in the never-ending post-Soviet tragedy."
AUSTRIA: "A Test For Prime Minister Putin"
Livia Klingl said in mass-circulation Kurier (8/12): "The revolt on Russia's southeastern flank might prove to be a real test for Prime Minister-designate Putin. Strategically and economically, Dagestan is as important to Russia as neighboring Chechnya.
"The huge empire fears that the example of separatism might spread to other republics and lead to the gradual disintegration of Russia. If Russia does not manage to calm down the Northern Caucasus, the big oil companies might prefer other routes from the Caspian Sea to the Black Sea via less unstable countries. And Russia would lose revenues and power."
BELGIUM: "Election Strategizing"
VRT correspondent Johan Depoortere opined in liberal weekly Knack (8/18): "There is every sign that the opponents of the Kremlin, i.e., the Communists, the nationalists and certain regional leaders, will achieve a major victory in the parliamentary elections in December. Yeltsin's presidential candidate, Putin, will not stand a chance in next year's presidential elections without ruse. Yeltsin, however, undoubtedly has some tricks available. The situation in the Caucasus may be an excellent pretext to proclaim the state of emergency and postpone elections. A possible scenario is the early departure of Yeltsin--in which case Putin will become acting president. One does not need much imagination to see how the former KGB man could suspend the democratic freedoms, send the parliament home and install a personal regime with the support of the troops from the Interior Ministry and the Security Services."
"Arms Control Obstacles"
Foreign editor Axel Buyse observed in independent Catholic De Standaard (8/18): "On Tuesday in Moscow, Russian and American experts started negotiations on the START III accord.... However, the Russian parliament has not even ratified START II and the Russians remain angry over the American plans for a 'space shield.'... A majority in the Russian parliament exploits the non-ratification as a means to express frustration over the lost status of superpower--even though Russia is, de facto, barely capable of maintaining its nuclear arsenal properly.... There is an additional problem. Washington, mainly under the pressure of Republican politicians, is envisaging the construction of a limited anti-missile system which, in the American view, is directed only against the limited threat of nuclear weapons from...pariah states or terrorists. However, such a 'space shield' allegedly is in conflict with the ABM Treaty.... Yeltsin...agreed to talks on amendments in the ABM Treaty to make the installation of the space shield possible. But, it continues to be an extremely painful problem for Russia."
Russian Politics Hardly An Elevating Spectacle"
Foreign editor Axel Buyse editorialized in independent Catholic De Standaard (8/17): "Russia's politics appear to be sinking more and more deeply into a morass of intrigues and distrust.... It is remarkable how little hard information is available about the most recent specimen in Yeltsin's long series of prime ministers.... One of the most credible theories about Yeltsin's bizarre new prime minister is that Putin, by all possible means, must block the road to the presidency for Yuri Luzhkov.... In 1999, Russian politics are far from an elevating spectacle. Maybe the country is heading for democracy--but the point-of-no-return has certainly not been reached. Hence, many scenarios for the evolution of Europe's giant remain possible."
"Unrest In The Caucasus"
Foreign affairs writer Freddy De Pauw told readers of independent Catholic De Standaard (8/14): "The rebellion in Dagestan makes people realize that the Caucasus is a vast area of potential conflicts.... Above all, it entails a further weakening of Russia on the European scene, as only few people believe that Putin will be able to do much in the field with an army which is certainly not more powerful than three years ago (in Chechnya), and with the same incompetent commanders. The impact of a further Russian weakening on Moscow's behavior is as unpredictable as the behavior of the Russian president. Something that most European leaders have understood in the meantime is that there are oil wells in that area and that there are or might be strategic pipelines running through that region."
BULGARIA: "Yeltsin's Theater Of The Absurd"
Influential weekly Kapital (8/14-20) commented: "In the last 18 months Yeltsin fired four prime ministers and appointed five. It is very difficult to prove that these changes have anything to do with Russia's national interest. The most egotistical of all changes was the last one, which led to the rise to power of the eminence grise and possible successor of Yeltsin, the former KGB operative Vladimir Putin, a rookie in politics. He holds a double attraction for Yeltsin. He is a provincialist with no charm, public image or experience in government to speak of. Apart from that, as a former employee of the secret police, he possesses connections which could prove very useful to Yeltsin and his 'family' in the game of accusations, counter-accusations, secrets and lies--the essence of Moscow's politics these days."
DENMARK: "Moscow Neglects Its Own Backyard"
Center-right Jyllands-Posten commented (8/17): "Russia ought to make greater efforts in the Caucusus. But Boris Yeltsin seems to be more concerned with domestic [political] intrigues and only becomes interested in the Caucusus when the oil supplies from the Caspian Sea appear to be in danger. Moscow could choose to admit just how problematic the situation is in the region and call for help from the outside.... Unfortunately, this does not seem to be a realistic option. Moscow seems to be intent on neglecting its backyard."
HUNGARY: "U.S. Reaction Restrained; Has U.S. Lost Russia?"
Washington correspondent Gabor Miklos offered this editorial view in leading Nepszabadsag (8/17): "The recent change of the government head in Russia has only been greeted with surprise in Washington; the word 'crisis' has not been applied.... The official word in Washington is restraint. It is waiting. It has been said that the relations are with countries and not with prime ministers. And it is clear anyway that prime ministers under Yeltsin do not have too big a role to play. But there is a question that rests very much on the 'back shelves' of political topics to be discussed. Similar to the big question in the election rallies during the fifties of 'who has lost China?,' the question to be asked now is: Who is responsible for the big Russian state's decline and who is responsible in the United States for losing Russia?"
"Caspian Sea Oil"
Edit Zsigovits asserted in center-right Magyar Nemzet (8/17): "Moscow is in trouble. The earth is shaking in the north Caucasus again and although the Russian administration has repeatedly been stating that it is only days or at the most a week before the Muslim revolt is brought down, this can easily be an illusion. Because the real enemy there is fanaticism not political rivals. Or, as some experts see it, what is really at stake is the secret desire for the possession of the rich oil fields.... The peoples of the Caucasus are not united in whom they support, the various clans in Dagestan, for instance, back Moscow.... But the arms distributed amongst the fighters...can easily become a tool to fight independence from Russia and to create an Islamic state community, that may as well put its hands onto the Caspian sea oil."
LITHUANIA: "Stepashin Softer Than His Replacement"
Conservative Lietuvos Aidas's (8/12) editorial discussed the strategic ties that the newly-appointed prime minister secured during his career as a KGB agent, concluding that Putin is seen as a "hard imperialist" and "it seems that Stepashin was too soft." The editorialist further observed that Yeltsin sees Putin as the heir to the presidency, but "why think about elections--they belong to a poetic sphere."
THE NETHERLANDS: "So Far, Yeltsin Has Stuck To The Constitution"
Influential, liberal De Volkskrant held (8/12): "Yeltsin has done many impulsive, stupid and strange things as president, but so far has stuck to the constitution (which he drafted himself). Yeltsin wants to go down in history as the founder of Russian democracy. The West needs to make clear to him that he will not be eligible for this honorary title without free and honest elections for a successor."
"Russia Can Ill Afford New Crisis In Caucasus"
Centrist Het Parool opined (8/11): "Russia can ill afford a new crisis in the Caucasus.... Many politicians in Moscow are worried about the future of that area of the federation. Putin said that peace would return to Dagestan within two weeks. Following that, the Russian army must reassert their control in the area, which will take far longer."
NORWAY: "The Empire Falls"
Northern Nordlys commented (8/17): "Bit by bit the Soviet empire has been dissolved.... Despite Yeltsin's characterizing the war in Chechnya as his worst failure, he is on the way to repeating it.... For every day that goes by of battle negotiations in the Caucasus, the farther away Russia is from material security.... Yeltsin was seen as the guarantor of the building of a democratic Russia. Today he stands more as a guarantor of his and his family's privileges, and little more."
POLAND: "Increasingly Diminished Russia"
Aleksander Kropiwnicki wrote in right-of-center Zycie (8/14-15): "Russia is more dangerous externally than internally. World powers need Russia as a crucial element on the international scene. Besides, Moscow successfully blackmails the world with the threat of nuclear proliferation, or with the outbreak of a civil war [which might involve] throwing nuclear bombs like invectives. The citizens of the Russian state, however, feel that it is as weak as never before in centuries.... If the [Islamic] rebels managed to seize and maintain a substantial part of Dagestan, it means that Russia can really be pushed out of the Caucasian region."
SPAIN: "Putin Confirmed By The Duma"
Conservative ABC commented (8/17): "Yeltsin achieved the confirmation of his strongman by the Duma yesterday although there are tough times ahead.... It was significant that more than 100 deputies tried to boycott the vote, which may portend that Russia's serious political crisis could give way to a crisis of legitimacy.... Vladimir Putin has promised to defend Russia's territorial integrity by all legal means, but the biggest battle he faces is against corruption."
TURKEY: "Russian Roulette"
Ergin Yildizoglu wrote in intellectual/opinion maker Cumhuriyet (8/18): "Russia is going through a political storm, which will likely grow stronger. The Yeltsin family is in a panic about the possibility of an extensive investigation against members.... This family has every reason to fear, as a result of its financial wrongdoings and receiving illegal income during privatization.... The only solution for the Yeltsins seems to be the possibility of [newly appointed PM] Putin's presidency.... If Putin's chances of winning decrease, then there are other 'Russian roulette' options, such as postponing the elections.... Yeltsin may use the Dagestan problem as an excuse to declare a state of emergency--and postpone the elections."
MIDDLE EAST
KUWAIT: "Russia's Failed Nationalism"
Independent Al-Anba (8/16) ran this piece by Faisal Al-Zamel: "The task of shaping 'nationalism' in Russia is failing dismally because of Russia's vastness...to say nothing of different ethnic groups. Communism failed to blend together this geographic, ethnic and religious disparity.... Economic decline, corruption and the spread of the Russian mafia in Dagestan, Chechnya and Tataristan have contributed even further to their decline.... The Kremlin is unable to find a competent prime minister, and the presidency is in shambles. Multiculturalism and pluralism in all its forms in the Russian federation is the only choice."
EAST ASIA
CHINA: "Putin Faces Severe Challenges"
Xu Hong said in the official Central Legal and Political Commission Legal Daily (Fazhi Ribao), (8/18): "The tension in Dagestan is a severe challenge that Putin will have to face.... [In addition,] if Putin cannot curb the growth of centrist forces and prevent them from allying with each other, he is probably unable to get continued support from Yeltsin."
"Russia Launches Large-Scale Attacks On Chechen Terrorists"
Wang Xuejian said in official Central Legal and Political Commission Legal Daily (Fazhi Ribao, 8/17): "Analysts say that since the situation in Dagestan endangers Russia's territorial and sovereign integrity, resolute attacks on the Chechen terrorists is the only option of the Russian government. Moreover, this is also a severe challenge to the new Russian government."
JAPAN: "Primakov To Lead Powerful Anti-Yeltsin Centrist Bloc"
The business-oriented Nihon Keizai's Moscow correspondent Ikeda observed (8/18): "Primakov's assumption of leadership as chief of the Fatherland-All Russia bloc's coordinating council, and his declared run for a Duma seat are expected to encourage other opposition political parties and groups to join ranks with the bloc...in creating a unified anti-Yeltsin coalition. Primakov is already regarded as one of the most likely contenders to seek the presidency.... Without doubt, his political comeback will deal a serious blow to the Yeltsin camp."
"Putin Expected To Take Strong Measures To Restore Leadership"
Liberal Asahi's Moscow correspondent Miyata observed (8/17): "Putin...faces two very knotty problems--the stalemated situation in Dagestan, and a rising political movement among opposition politicians, including Moscow Mayor Luzhkov, who seek the post-Yeltsin leadership mantle. The question is how can the newly-approved prime minister resolve the deadlocked Dagestan situation, and turn the turbulent political tide in his favor to restore the Kremlin's leadership. As time is running out fast, political observers wonder whether the Putin government will have no choice but to declare a state of emergency and resort to extraordinary (constitutional) measures to overcome these crises and strengthen his leadership."
AUSTRALIA: "Russia's Ruthless Democrat"
The national business Australian Financial Review asserted (8/17): "Far too much Western policy direction has been invested in the solitary figure of Yeltsin, which leads to unrealistic confidence about how fast Russia was making the transformation to a free market democracy. That should be resisted in future, both to avoid making policy towards Russia the captive of one politician, and to ensure that wider signals about what's happening there aren't missed."
SINGAPORE: "Above All, Russia Needs Stability"
The pro-government Business Times observed (8/18): "It does not really matter why Boris Yeltsin decided to sack his prime minister, Sergei Stepashin, after just 82 days. Or why he settled on Valdimir Putin...as his successor. The real issue is: Will Russia get some semblance or economic and social stability long enough to put its house in order? To his credit, Russia's brand new premier spoke of his commitment to economic reform.... Unfortunately, it is not just the economy that needs fixing. An armed Islamic insurrection has broken out again in Dagestan.... Given Russia's dependence on oil revenues, the implications for the economy are enormous if Dagestan is lost as well. Then there is the parliamentary election on December 19 and a presidential election set for mid-2000. Russians are tired of Mr. Yeltsin. A coalition of powerful regional bosses has lined up behind Moscow Mayor Yuri Luzhkov.... The grouping may come to dominate the political landscape. Things might then get too uncomfortable for Mr. Yeltsin. Will he use the Dagestan rebellion as a pretext for imposing a state of emergency, which could then justify postponing both the parliamentary and presidential polls? Mr. Yeltsin has ruled it out for the moment, but then again, he does change his mind ever so often."
SOUTH KOREA: "Dagestan Situation May Drag On"
Cho Min Ho noted in conservative Segye Ilbo (8/17): "The skirmish that seemed likely to end in two to three days is dragging on because the savvy rebels have engaged the Russian forces in mountain guerrilla warfare. There is also the possibility of a replay of the bloody war between Russia and Chechnya. Many analysts agree, however, that Russia will not break the peace treaty with Chechnya. On the other hand, Russian opposition parties worry that President Yeltsin may take advantage of this situation, and postpone elections to extend his rule."
THAILAND: "Russia Gets Down To Real Business"
The lead editorial in the top-circulation, moderately conservative, English-language Bangkok Post commented (8/15): "For all the concern or entertainment provided by President Yeltsin's actions, real work is being accomplished. The Russians under Mr. Yeltsin and the Americans under President Clinton have been working hard and have made real progress at reducing the threat of world war. Their 'threat reduction' efforts have already made the world measurably safer. It seems certain they will continue to make progress.... The U.S.-Russian cooperation on weapons of mass destruction deserves strong support from all quarters. American financing and Russian determination are paying off in ways that actually can be measured."
"Musical Chairs Help Keep Yeltsin In Power"
The lead editorial of the independent, English-language Nation held (8/13): "At Washington's advocacy, much of the world has put its faith in Yeltsin to carry the torch for democracy in Russia.... When shortly after he persuaded his countrymen to adopt a constitution in 1993 to give him vast, unchecked powers, the West and international organizations should have begun exploring other avenues to promote democracy and reform in the country, instead of hitching their hopes on one increasingly unpredictable man. The parliament now has such a small role to play that there is little hope of developing strong political parties ready to share responsibility for governing. The judiciary remains subordinate to politicians, so there is no effective rule of law. The one thing Yeltsin could have done to help the process would have been to groom a successor for a peaceful transition of power. Instead, he has done whatever he can to safeguard his own interests."
VIETNAM: "Conflict In Dagestan: Russia's New Twinge"
The lead editorial in Ministry of National Defense of Vietnam Quan Doi Nhan Dan commented (8/12): "At present, Russia has not escaped from the socio-economic crisis and Russian political forces are concentrating on forming coalitions to run for the State Duma elections as well as the presidential election. In this context...it is possible that some Russian political forces will use the conflict to serve their fight for power."
SOUTH ASIA
BANGLADESH: "Adventure Yeltsin"
The centrist, English-language Independent commented (8/11): "Boris Yeltsin...has time and again come out bloodied but on the top in Russian politics, defying strong Communist, nationalist and institutional opposition and intrigue. He is believed to be muddying the water so he will be able to cancel the presidential elections...next year, and extend his tenure in office by invoking an emergency."
WESTERN HEMISPHERE
ARGENTINA: "Another Crisis Cycle In Russia"
An editorial in leading Clarin judged (8/16): "With the replacement of a prime minister of fleeting presence in the highest government levels and with another secessionist rebellion in the Caucasus, Russia is once again moving toward another phase of a crisis which affects the regional integrity of the largest country in the world and leaves the international geopolitical balance with unpredictable consequences.... The memory of the bloody war which in Chechnya years ago, with thousands of casualties, shadows the horizon of this new secessionist outbreak. Although there are no risks of repeating this, it is a new disintegration seed which does nothing but fuel the trend toward divisions between Russian nationalism and the nationalistic and secessionist claims of every region or ethnic-religious group."
BRAZIL: "Little Progress, But Also No Retreat To Communist Past"
In a byliner in center-right O Estado de S. Paulo's op-ed page, political analyst Antonio Carlos Pereira declared (8/17): "The situation in Russia is dramatic: The institutions do not work and the economy swings from bad to worse. However, there is nowhere in Russia any important movement demanding a return to the past. There is little progress, but there is no retreat. For those who are led by the urgency of globalization, this rhythm is slow and will be exasperating."
For more information, please contact:
U.S. Information Agency
Office of Public Liaison
Telephone: (202) 619-4355
8/19/99
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